A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by Laura B »

Thanks Keith.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by Walesforever »

Sounds like a good efficiency rate but the lack of detail coming from China is a bit worrying.

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Post by Keithcaley »

Walesforever wrote:
Sat 09 Jan 2021 8:29 am
Sounds like a good efficiency rate but the lack of detail coming from China is a bit worrying.

Agreed, there is a shortage of data, but given that it is a trial, and that this is preliminary summary, that's hardly surprising.

I'm not trying to 'push' any particular vaccine, I just happened to spot this article - people will need to make their own minds up as the situation unfolds.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by sophie »

When Edward Jenner in 1796 started to injection people with a cure for smallpox, I wonder if people jumped up and down saying they wanted more proof that it worked or that they wanted to see who would come up with another cure. People now are getting much too picky!!! Its actually still being used but not as a cure for smallpox.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by Kanonier »

sophie wrote:
Sat 09 Jan 2021 12:02 pm
People now are getting much too picky!!! Its actually still being used but not as a cure for smallpox.
Probably because people have access to a lot more information nowadays than they had 200 or so years ago?

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by Walesforever »

Actually I’m assuming the choices ( as it stands today) will be...

1 Have the Chinese vaccine

2 Don’t have it.

Turkey don’t have supplies of any other vaccines at present ( in discussions with Russia regarding the Sputnik version).

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by sophie »

Well I don't suspect people will start to have have hair growing on the backs of their hands and howling at the moon, will they.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by Keithcaley »

It's hair growing on the palms of your hands that's the worry! :)

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by kibsolar1999 »

biontech had 43.000 volunteers (and 162/8 cases), sinovac 13.000 (and 160/58 cases)
good is that the Sinovac vaccine prevented severe cases. biontech had one.

and still, even if we have sinovac available, its not enough.
the pressure (to find a vaccine for their own citizens) is enormous. and money plays a big role.
we need curevac,yes, but we need cheap stuff as well.. Astra, johnson, sinopharm......
but pls with reliable trustable datas...

otherwise we end up with a lot of anti-vaxxers, which will cost " the society" a lot, a lot of money.
yes, the pandemic goes down gradually and may come to an end, but thats not the end of sars cov 2 / covid19.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by kerry 6138 »

Not sure why countries are not taking up the Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccine which is being sold at cost $3 a dose, while the others range $20 to $30 a dose.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by kibsolar1999 »

Not sure why countries are not taking up the Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccine which is being sold at cost $3 a dose, while the others range $20 to $30 a dose.

mRNA moderna/biontech is approx 15 euros a dose, 30euros for 2 doses.
curevac announced it will be 10-15 euros per dose.

the answer is: avaibility and requests.
it takes less time and effort (but a lot of competence) to produce mRNA vaccines as the "traditional" ones.
eg, biontech. in 2020 50 million doses, in 2021 1,3 billion. moderna same, curevac mentioned 500 million doses in 2021.
note: a start from "zero".
makes 3,1 billion in 2021.
astra announced a total of 2 billion doses in 2021, of which 400 million go to European IVA, 300 million to the US and 300 million to GAVI / CEPI
rest will be produced, eg, in India.
makes 5 billion.
chinas sinopharm, sinovac, 1 billion.
sputnik: 1 billion
7.
we need around 12 billion doses.
to come, maybe: johnson, sanofi, others.
to come also: expanding production capacity for mRNA in 2021, a german initiative (more money and help for biontech) is going... and for 2022.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

sophie wrote:
Sat 09 Jan 2021 12:02 pm
When Edward Jenner in 1796 started to injection people with a cure for smallpox, I wonder if people jumped up and down saying they wanted more proof that it worked or that they wanted to see who would come up with another cure. People now are getting much too picky!!! Its actually still being used but not as a cure for smallpox.
I would imagine the mortality rate of smallpox in 1796 was quite a bit higher than covid.

Interestingly Thalidomide is still used for a number of cancers (including multiple myeloma) but I think it's popularity has dropped off as an anxiety cure in pregnant women. It has also undergone a name change for obvious reasons.
Even back in the 50s they were aware of the side effects of dizziness and drowsiness but the big one escaped them. I guess they can if you rush through a drug or use less of a data sample.
I just have a concern that we may be undergoing the biggest drug trial in history.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by waddo »

It’s got a long way to go to beat the length of time the flu vaccine has been tested on the population since 1945, it still is not 100% effective and who knows what unknown side effects it has! Rest easy, nobody gets it right first time or even after 75 years it seems.
No matter how hard the past, you can always begin again.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by jofra »

Side effects - during my life, I've had many jabs, so I don't know which one is responsible - but on and off over the years, there have been times when my feet smell and/or my nose runs - and no; I'm not upside down.... :wink:

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by sophie »

I don't see how you can possible compare the length of time testing, cures for Polio, TB, etc, with the time it takes now. What you can compare are the facilities in a modern laboratory to those in Labs in the 30, 40, 50, or even 60s. They are light years apart. Todays Science students have better equipment in class than most commercial Labs in those days. BTW, Jofra, if you were upside down I don't think your nose would run, something to do with gravity maybe?

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by kibsolar1999 »

if you want to develop a new vaccine, you need experts and a good labaratory, yes.
but you also need money and time due to a lot of labour .
financing phase 1... wait... find other experts and volunteers....wait.. carry out phase 1. .... present outcome...
same for phase 2 and, most important, phase 3. takes years.

for sars cov 2: which is a (known) corona virus. genetic sequence taken in days. vaccine ready (for mRNA) in, i think it was, a week or two.
good lab, money, labour, all available. no delays. P1 and P2 was quick performed in 3 or 4 month, which is possible in that situation.
now P3.
but note, latest here the labs and the experts and the "good facilities" are not very much important any more.
also any other virus can be sequenced in days. maybe even a "vaccine candidate" can be found (especially with mRNA tech).

P3 usually takes most of the time, why? because it takes month and years until the volunteers from the vaccinated and the control group have shown infections.
eg, say, TB. you vaccinate 20k and 20k gets a placebo. how long it will take until a significant number of volunteers got TB.
correct, years. and because it is terribly expensive to observe the volunteers, you chose only 10+10k. or 5+5. takes even more time.

but in a pandemic situation we have plenty of "virus around" with a high R-value on top.
eg, thats why the chinese would have had problems to finish P3 in china, no virus nowhere around in significant numbers.
(or... eg, the cuban...)
same would, eg apply, if i want to develop a new vaccine against, eg, polio, where can i go to test? nearly nowhere, as polio is basically non existent. P1 and P2 i could perform.. but for P3 i can not test my new vaccine.
(thats why in the past "adjustments" for the polio vaccine was done every 5 - 10 years only)

and thats why biontech went to brasil in early summer and others as well. it took only 4 month until from 40k people around 200 have been infected and nearly all from the control group.

come back to topic. Sinovac got 500 million dollar from investors and wants to produce 600million doses in 2021. thats a lot, but not sufficient.
i personally wonder why the chinese gov permits exports. maybe because they have the opinion that sars cov 2 is basically non existent in china any more (and other vaccines are in P3 as well).
Sinovacs P3 is performed in brasil (13k volunteers) and in indonesia, turkey (no numbers for volunteers found).
so, it seems, that the mRNA people and also Astra and others have more money available as, eg, the chinese, russians, indians.

thats why P3 was performed quicker... other "concerns" about the chinise and others , eg, data transparency, not considered.....

the influenca virus mutates very fast and thats the reason why a "vaccination for lifetime" is difficult. but maybe the mRNA idea will help here in the future.

btw, usually you also do not die from influenca. you die because of a superinfection, usually pneumococci are involved.
did you die now with or from influenca?

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

kibsolar1999 wrote:
Sun 10 Jan 2021 11:18 am


btw, usually you also do not die from influenca. you die because of a superinfection, usually pneumococci are involved.
did you die now with or from influenca?
I know it probably makes you feel superior coming up with that little nugget but if you log onto the ONS site that is being used to measure deaths you'll see deaths from influenza.
If you follow your pedantic logic then we wasted an awful lot of money on AIDS and HIV research and medicines as I think you'll find that no-one actually died of either generally dying of pneumonia.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by kibsolar1999 »

just to note.. i have been NOT the one who came up here with the saying " dying from or with" covid 19...
flu deaths usually are estimated.

btw, i personally believe that the pandemic will finally end not with vaccines, but with a medicine (eg, for all the anti vaxxers)
maybe to come in 2022.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by kibsolar1999 »

indonesia just announced that they approved Sinovac.
65,3%

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

sophie wrote:
Sun 10 Jan 2021 9:11 am
I don't see how you can possible compare the length of time testing, cures for Polio, TB, etc, with the time it takes now. What you can compare are the facilities in a modern laboratory to those in Labs in the 30, 40, 50, or even 60s. They are light years apart. Todays Science students have better equipment in class than most commercial Labs in those days.
All very fair points but if we go back to Thalidomide, until you actually test pregnant women you can't ascertain that whilst side effects are minor in most people they are catastrophic in pregnant women. I think the length of pregnancy was pretty similar in in the 30s to now.

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Update on news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by Keithcaley »

"Less than 60% efficacy according to report"

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by kibsolar1999 »

50, 65, 78 %,
and Turkiye, which ordered 50 million doses already and it seems did not arrange for alternatives (in significant numbers..?).. tops it with 91%.

results "as you need them"?

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by Groucho »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Mon 11 Jan 2021 1:35 pm

All very fair points but if we go back to Thalidomide, until you actually test pregnant women you can't ascertain that whilst side effects are minor in most people they are catastrophic in pregnant women. I think the length of pregnancy was pretty similar in in the 30s to now.
Well let's muddy the waters with repeated attempts to shoehorn-in references to a totally unconnected issue to see if we can't undermine people's confidence further... Not a vaccine, not remotely similar in structure, purpose or target.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

Groucho wrote:
Wed 13 Jan 2021 12:33 pm

Well let's muddy the waters with repeated attempts to shoehorn-in references to a totally unconnected issue to see if we can't undermine people's confidence further... Not a vaccine, not remotely similar in structure, purpose or target.
I'm not an expert virologist unlike you apparently are.
My point is that anything that is rushed to market, as this obviously has to be, won't be as tested as something which hasn't been rushed.
We have many vaccines coming to market are you saying they will all produce exactly the same results? The different swine flu vaccines didn't

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by kibsolar1999 »

indonesian president got the sinovac vaccine

My point is that anything that is rushed to market, as this obviously has to be, won't be as tested as something which hasn't been rushed.
you keep lamenting on it.. but have no proof.
especially eg about moderna, biontech or astra... and eg, why Sanofi is now delayed for at least 6 month or even never comes?

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

kibsolar1999 wrote:
Wed 13 Jan 2021 2:57 pm

you keep lamenting on it.. but have no proof.
especially eg about moderna, biontech or astra... and eg, why Sanofi is now delayed for at least 6 month or even never comes?
I don’t have your newly acquired expertise as a virologist it’s true, I just have this outlandish theory that something that is tested on say 20,000 people for 5 years might prove to have less faults than something that is tested on 2000 people for 9 months.
I know zero about building a brand new car but the same theory applies.
But twist away, after all I suggested that taking some extra vitamin D or eating more bananas would cure covid apparently?

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by kibsolar1999 »

as i mentioned already... the 1+2+3 Phases are "hindered" by many aspects.

BionTech alone had approx 43.000 volunteers, not 2000.
"2000" are often chosen in "traditional" trials, because ... lack of money.
and that takes years.

"second fastest" actually was the vaccine against measles. 4 years.

since nearly a year the P1 and since half a year the P2 volunteers from biontech are observed. on top, several hundreds / thousands? "active mRNA substances" have been given during the years... (within other "trials") and.... the corona virus is not a "totally unknown"..

what are you personally afraid of? that you become a zombie?... or infertile/steril?
pls tell me.. what choice the elderly have? YOU are one of the people who want(ed) to open economy asap, because you could not see "the threat".
the over 70 have a 11% death rate to die from covid.
basically meaning that in every fifth family either mum and dad (or grandmam-dad) (did or) will die in 2021-2022.
THAT is a threat. and lockdown forever also.

the concerns about the stuff from china/russia/india/others we mentioned here...

btw, a german virologist (working for Curevac) mentioned that the russian sputnik V most probably is reliable ("shows good") as good old russian workmanship is to be expected .

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

Kibsolar what are your qualifications as a virologist? I will hold my hands up that I have no such qualifications.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

kibsolar1999 wrote:
Wed 13 Jan 2021 6:33 pm

the over 70 have a 11% death rate to die from covid.
basically meaning that in every fifth family either mum and dad (or grandmam-dad) (did or) will die in 2021-2022.
I bow to your knowledge of Germany so can’t speak for the figures there with any certainty but in the U.K. there are over ten million people over the age of 70 so your 11% is a slight exaggeration no?
Very good to put it into context as in one of every family’s grandparent will die but totally exaggerated.
As I say I don’t know the demographics in Germany but I am 99.9% certain that the figure is no where near 11% there or indeed anywhere in the world

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by kibsolar1999 »

well, search it!
there are different publications around.. taking this and that into account.. sometimes it just takes too much time to read
( 100 pages pdf + sometimes difficult to understand)
sure is: a lot.

i just read an article from november...in german... case fatality rate by age group.
0-54 y : 0,0 - 0,2%
55-64: 0,8
65-74: 2,5
75-84: 8,5
85+: 28%

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by Groucho »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Wed 13 Jan 2021 7:14 pm
Kibsolar what are your qualifications as a virologist? I will hold my hands up that I have no such qualifications.
Yes you will hold your hands up - but that won't stop you spreading alarmist anti-vax sentiments in that way you do... shame on you. People are already scared enough without your very unhelpful attempts to sow more unsubstantiated gossip under the guise of merely having a questioning mind.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

kibsolar1999 wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 1:04 am
well, search it!
there are different publications around.. taking this and that into account.. sometimes it just takes too much time to read
( 100 pages pdf + sometimes difficult to understand)
sure is: a lot.

i just read an article from november...in german... case fatality rate by age group.
0-54 y : 0,0 - 0,2%
55-64: 0,8
65-74: 2,5
75-84: 8,5
85+: 28%
Well there are ten million people over the age of 70 in the U.K. We are known for having an ageing population and the total population is 66 million so ten million sounds about right. 11% of ten million is 1.1 million. 1.1 million people have not died in the U.K. by any estimate. That’s twice the total people of every age that will die in the U.K. of all causes

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

Groucho wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 7:34 am

Yes you will hold your hands up - but that won't stop you spreading alarmist anti-vax sentiments in that way you do... shame on you. People are already scared enough without your very unhelpful attempts to sow more unsubstantiated gossip under the guise of merely having a questioning mind.
Aaaaaaand cue faux outrage.I know what and when you are going to post before you do. It’s almost a cliche.🤣
Alarmist as in 1.1 million people over 70 are going to die? Every person who catches covid will die? That kind of thing?
I haven’t bought up a fraction of my concerns because people can do what they like as far as I’m concerned. They want to lock themselves away from life for 24/7 then enjoy but don’t insist I do.
You have zero concerns then go and have your party at a restaurant. I won’t be there.
You can vaccinate yourself against whatever you wish as often as you like but that’s not enough, you demand everyone else is forced to as well.
Don’t worry I’ll leave you to your echo chamber.
It’s all about the control really isn’t it?

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

kibsolar1999 wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 1:04 am
well, search it!
there are different publications around.. taking this and that into account.. sometimes it just takes too much time to read
( 100 pages pdf + sometimes difficult to understand)
sure is: a lot.

i just read an article from november...in german... case fatality rate by age group.
0-54 y : 0,0 - 0,2%
55-64: 0,8
65-74: 2,5
75-84: 8,5
85+: 28%
Ok I searched it in about a minute. Only I didn’t search what I was pointed to I searched population and demographics to totally debunk your figures.

There are roughly 84 million in Germany. Agreed?
Apparently 21.8% of those are over 65 so that’s 18.3 million. Any arguments so far?

Even if all 18 million were between 65-74 and so the rate was a consistent 2.5%, remember I’m using your figures here, that still gives you over 450,000 deaths. Which is about 10 x the total quoted for everyone.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by Groucho »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 9:20 am
Groucho wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 7:34 am

Yes you will hold your hands up - but that won't stop you spreading alarmist anti-vax sentiments in that way you do... shame on you. People are already scared enough without your very unhelpful attempts to sow more unsubstantiated gossip under the guise of merely having a questioning mind.

You can vaccinate yourself against whatever you wish as often as you like but that’s not enough, you demand everyone else is forced to as well.
Where have I demanded everyone is forced... nowhere that's where... it's not faux outrage btw. I find your constant attempts to undermine people's already fragile mental health quite disturbing... oh, you are all right so that makes it OK to spread your venom... to be frank you are the worst kind of troll, pseudo-science is your weapon of choice and your fellow man your target...

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

Groucho wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 10:21 am

Where have I demanded everyone is forced... nowhere that's where... it's not faux outrage btw.
OK so people can refuse to have the vaccine without any sanction at all?
Groucho wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 10:21 am

I find your constant attempts to undermine people's already fragile mental health quite disturbing... oh, you are all right so that makes it OK to spread your venom...
By pointing out that maybe locking people in isn't going to be particularly good for their mental health?
By pointing out that a lockdown WILL cause enormous economic hardship cost countless jobs etc? Btw the magic cure for that lack of jobs of increasing the public sector with artificial jobs won't work.
I'm not the one exaggerating figures here.
Groucho wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 10:21 am

to be frank you are the worst kind of troll, pseudo-science is your weapon of choice and your fellow man your target...
Troll :)
Translation, you don't agree with me so you're a troll.
Your violent demonstration is a coup. etc etc

OK please verify Kibsolar's 1 in 5 of all families is going to die. Actually I think he might have doubled down and increased his estimate. Obviously that isn't alarmist and is easily proved?

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by Groucho »

No not troll because you don't agree with me, troll because in your effort to contrary to generally accepted truths you will spread any alarmist claptrap to unnerve people when they are already worried sick... but taking your point about people, isolation and the devastation to business - what do you think is gained by people not taking precautions and dying? Is that good for businesses?

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

People taking sensible precautions and protecting the vulnerable and those most effected isn’t the same as an across the board lockdown is it?

Few questions for you;

Do you think these lockdowns will cause much unemployment?
Do you think say the suicide rate will go up if unemployment increases to a significant degree?

Do you agree with Kibsolar’s figures?
Do you think they could be viewed as alarmist if untrue? Eg one of your family is going to die.
Is it alarmist to point out they are grossly exaggerated or alarmist to just let them through without comment?

Will every vaccine work as efficiently as each other?
What’s your view on gene-based vaccines and your data on mass immunisation using gene-based vaccines.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by Groucho »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 11:16 am
People taking sensible precautions and protecting the vulnerable and those most effected isn’t the same as an across the board lockdown is it?
So do you think these lockdowns will cause much unemployment?
Do you think say the suicide rate will go up if unemployment increases to a high degree?
I think you mean affected...

So now under a thread on vaccines... you decide to move the goalposts to lockdown... well I never saw that coming, knowing as I do, how loathe you are to stray in debate (I only mentioned isolation in response to your earlier obfuscation).

Of course Covid doesn't cause any such issues does it? Oh, well in fact it does, doesn't it... I feel sorry for people who are suffering but I will reserve my righteous indignation for families devastated by the thoughtless determined efforts of those who would seek to take no duty of care for the wellbeing of others...

So here's the thing - if as we all should hope, the vaccination of the populus at large puts an end to isolation, business failures and deaths from Covid, is that not a good thing?

Those who in the name of personal freedoms refuse masks and vaccination will have to live with the fallout that their stance dictates but let's not kid ourselves that their freedoms should include the freedom to infect others whether deliberate or accidental. Afterall people who may well be asymptomatic could still be breeding/hosting another more deadly mutant strain.
Last edited by Groucho on Thu 14 Jan 2021 12:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by waddo »

"People taking sensible precautions and protecting the vulnerable and those most effected isn’t the same as an across the board lockdown is it?"

No it is not - the selfish behavior of others who could care less can only be stopped by an across the board lockdown or spray die them in any color you wish, so they can be identified and turned away from hospitals to be selfish on their own!

"Do you think these lockdowns will cause much unemployment?"

Possibly but then those who become unemployed through no fault of their own will still be alive to complain.

"Do you think say the suicide rate will go up if unemployment increases to a significant degree?"

No more than it would if you banned football forever or made drinking illegal - any manner of things will cause the suicide rate to rise - just pick something popular and ban it!!

"Do you agree with Kibsolar’s figures?
Do you think they could be viewed as alarmist if untrue? Eg one of your family is going to die.
Is it alarmist to point out they are grossly exaggerated or alarmist to just let them through without comment?"

Figures? - No, lies, damn lies and statistics all based on what? Alarmist - of course if you are one of those easily alarmed. Alarmist to point it out - of course, introducing conflicting theory or even evidence can always alarm those prone to be alarmed. This is no fault of Kibsolar who appears to only want to help those to lazy to seek out information themselves.

"Will every vaccine work as efficiently as each other?"

Alarmist question which has no answer - another pointless comment!

"What’s your view on gene-based vaccines and your data on mass immunisations using gene-based vaccines."

They may work, they may not - data unavailable at this time.

Did you know that if you mix red, blue and yellow together you will get the color black? Sorry, like all the above that has nothing to do with the heading of this thread - have a nice day.
No matter how hard the past, you can always begin again.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by kibsolar1999 »

well ETS,
now you have your discussion about your mental health.... and thats also because you "do not listen" to that what people said (wrote).
instead, you often start with distraction maneuvers or accusations, many unfounded or even vicious, eg, that i am "happy" that the 100k death in the UK was reached.
many posters here very rarely want to go into discussion with you.... only if it gets to disturbing.... does it really satisfy you when threats close with "last post by ETS"?

you wrote:
1.1 million people have not died in the U.K. by any estimate.

i never said that. i said: "....will die in 2021-2022..."

you do not seem to understand that we are basically in the middle of a pandemic situation. with no vaccine or medicine available we can reduce "death per day" with lockdowns/available ICU beds and save some lives... but still EVERYBODY at the end will be infected.
if not this year, then next year or 2023. so, basically, all of those who did not die yet, will die later.

without lockdowns daily infection rates go up, in need neither an ambulance comes, nor you find ICU beds (and CFR go up sky high) , nor the funeral service will come to collect. so, more will die and much sooner. because: yes, they do understand the virus better, but they have NO treatment, covid always is good for surprises and you need a hell of time, money and expertise to save lives.

lockdown the lot is to flatten the curve, "a bit" to save lives , but not to end the pandemic.

so, you go the one way or the other... the economy will be affected, and , as analyzes show, much more without lockdowns.

i mentioned also that it seems you have a good memory.. well, maybe not.
month ago somewhere here, i mentioned that the total death rate in germany alone was estimated at 2 million. ok, maybe numbers are a bit down, due to research and better understanding, available ICU and because youngsters are not really in danger to die.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

Ok Kibsolar so 1.1 million people over the age of 70 WILL die of covid in 21-22? Your estimate is a year or 2 years?
And 2 million in Germany?
And obviously that's just the over 70s?
Are we having a guess on the totals?
And I'm the alarmist?
My Mother is 87 and seemingly indestructible but I would say I wouldn't necessarily expect her to be singing Auld Lange Syne on the 31st December 2022 with total confidence.

Looking closer to home 3 people died in TRNC last week bringing the total number of deaths to 9. That's a total of 9 after what I think most would agree wasn't the harshest enforcement of a lockdown.
This was on page 5 of Cyprus Today. Above it was a big article Headlined "Half TRNC virus cases recorded 'asymptomatic' which is also worth a read.

All 3 were tragedies for the families and they have my deepest sympathies.
One was 84 with a bad heart, he had a pacemaker and high blood pressure.
One was 77 with what appears to be serious existing chronic lung problems.
The 3rd was 80, also had a pacemaker and was a lung cancer patient.

Now a vaccine does not make you immune. At best it lessens the symptoms. Now even with lesser symptoms would you expect these three unfortunate people to survive a bout of covid? Or even flu after received a flu vaccine?
A cold could well prove fatal given those pre-existing conditions.
These were not 80 year old people with health problems typical for an 80 year old. These were on average 80 year old people with serious pre-existing conditions.

Again I remind you that I posted very basic advice which would not do any harm and might do some good. At worst it might give some peace of mind that if followed you are giving yourself a better chance. You put words in my mouth as if I was encouraging people not to visit a hospital if they had serious symptoms.
I don't know why, maybe you want hospitals overwhelmed by frightened people visiting with a cold? I can only guess at your reasons.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

Waddo thanks for at least answering the questions Groucho avoided.
Let me pick up on a few of your answers.
waddo wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 11:49 am

"Do you think these lockdowns will cause much unemployment?"

Possibly but then those who become unemployed through no fault of their own will still be alive to complain.
I don't think you really believe it is just a possibility? Do you honestly believe that the hotels out here who have laid off people in large numbers will hire them all back in the short to medium turn?
waddo wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 11:49 am
"Do you think say the suicide rate will go up if unemployment increases to a significant degree?"

No more than it would if you banned football forever or made drinking illegal - any manner of things will cause the suicide rate to rise - just pick something popular and ban it!!
Come on Waddo I expect better from you. Losing your job, the ability to pay your mortgage, buy your kids Christmas present, feed them well as against surviving the football break and not having a pint afterwards? Not really in the same league is it?
waddo wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 11:49 am
This is no fault of Kibsolar who appears to only want to help those to lazy to seek out information themselves.
But we are not going to see anything like those numbers. These were numbers that were first proposed by the likes of Ferguson which were soon proved to be pure alarmism.
waddo wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 11:49 am

"Will every vaccine work as efficiently as each other?"

Alarmist question which has no answer - another pointless comment!
I doubt any two 2 different vaccines have ever produced the same results. I might be wrong but I'd need to see the data on that.
waddo wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 11:49 am

They may work, they may not - data unavailable at this time.
Very true and there is a big reason why there is no data.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

Groucho wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 11:46 am

So now under a thread on vaccines... you decide to move the goalposts to lockdown...
Who was it that bought up fragile mental health?
So you can drop that in but I can't say if we are speaking of fragile mental health.....
Groucho wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 11:46 am

So here's the thing - if as we all should hope, the vaccination of the populus at large puts an end to isolation, business failures and deaths from Covid, is that not a good thing?
That would be a wonderful thing. OK how about if it solves 70% of the problem? We open up? 80%, we open up? 90%?
Personally I don't have any confidence it will totally wipe covid from the face of the earth, where is the line in the sand here?
Groucho wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 11:46 am

Those who in the name of personal freedoms refuse masks and vaccination will have to live with the fallout that their stance dictates but let's not kid ourselves that their freedoms should include the freedom to infect others whether deliberate or accidental.
Personally I wear a mask, go to the shops when quiet, socially distance etc etc. I do this more as a courtesy for others than any fear of my own well being so don't try to label me as someone who is going around unmasked coughing over everyone.
I am a big believer on anti social behavior being stopped.
So someone doesn't wear a mask? Your penalty would be?
Second time? Third time?
At any point would they be going to prison?
I doubt you'll answer but it's worth a go.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by waddo »

Good grief, as Charlie Brown would say! ETS, the answer you are looking for is 42! There now, find another thread to bend to your wishes, or start a new one!

In answer to your latest, although many would hope it is your last, question - let the anti social non believers in the band of non mask wearers, the people who refuse to abide by the rules or instructions and those who consider themselves just too well informed or clever to be affected by a virus, that is without doubt killing people, die in the street! Stop providing excuses and molly coddling and just get on with life with due consideration for your fellow man or women!
No matter how hard the past, you can always begin again.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

waddo wrote:
Thu 14 Jan 2021 3:25 pm
just get on with life with due consideration for your fellow man or women!
As I am and will always do.

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Re: A news report on the Sinovac vaccine

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Post by Brazen »

“Looking closer to home 3 people died in TRNC last week bringing the total number of deaths
to 9. That's a total of 9 after what I think most would agree wasn't the harshest enforcement of a lockdown.” EJS

But the first more strict lockdown eradicated the virus from the north and kept total cases down to just under 140. We are now approaching 1900 this time round without any strict measures in place so does this not show that lockdown work? Seems to me that a lockdown this time of the year would do less long term damage than letting the figures increase further necessitating one nearer to the start of the tourist season.
To cause further long term damage to the standing of the TRNC, I note that the new president is playing politics with our lives and going to refuse the Eu vaccine if not supplied directly rather than via the RoC. Unbelievable!

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