Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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ERG a busted flush ?

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Post by erol »

To me it is increasing looking like the ERG is a busted flush.

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by erol »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Any thoughts on their about turn in 1971 on letting us join? I'll give you a clue after finally sorting out the CAP they needed another mug to help pay for it
Charles De Gaul. The CAP was 'sorted out' by 1966. France under Charles De Gaul continued to block the UK's attempt to join the EEC, after the CAP was in place. What changed was not the 'sorting out' of the CAP but the end of Charles De Gaul's leadership of France.

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

erol wrote:
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Any thoughts on their about turn in 1971 on letting us join? I'll give you a clue after finally sorting out the CAP they needed another mug to help pay for it
Charles De Gaul. The CAP was 'sorted out' by 1966. France under Charles De Gaul continued to block the UK's attempt to join the EEC, after the CAP was in place. What changed was not the 'sorting out' of the CAP but the end of Charles De Gaul's leadership of France.
No what actually happened was Pompidou proposed that the Hague summit in December 1969 should link negotiations on the budget and the CAP with talks on monetary integration and ‘enlargement’.

Willie Brandt threatened that, unless there was ‘fair play’ for the applicant countries, there would be no agreement on the budget.
Pompidou countered that farming must come first. This was agreed. Everyone knew by this time that that was France’s price for lifting the veto.

So the Six agreed to deal with the budget and CAP package first.
Farm subsidies would be funded not only from levies on imports from outside the EEC but also from a percentage of VAT receipts levied by each of the member states. This was so radical that it needed a new treaty, the 1970 Luxembourg Treaty. Only with that settled would France agree to the Six opening negotiations with the four would-be applicants including Britain.

France also insisted that they would not be allowed to alter the terms of that all-important financial package.
As it was later confirmed by our Foreign Office “the French continued to attach the highest importance to them, and to getting them concluded and ratified by all the existing member states before we could appear on the scene. It was thus a crucial point of the policy with which President Pompidou went to The Hague Summit meeting in December 1969 that, if he had to accept the opening of negotiations on our application, he must ensure that the negotiations did not begin until the Six had completed their agricultural finance regulation, and did not conclude until they had all ratified the resulting Treaty.”

So that might have had the CAP in 1966 but paying for it needed more pockets.
Did you honestly think we got in because Pompidou was charmed by Heath???
Nice thought but back in the real world.

Will come back on the other stuff when I get a chance

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by waddo »

Waz, steady on there! You are in real danger of bringing this list of moans, groans and discussions back on track with the title of the thread!

On my weekly visit to this thread, I award Erol the first prize for providing facts (even if people don't like them) and of course ETS gets the bigger prize (naturally) for failing to answer any direct question with anything other than another question - perfect stance for any budding MP!

Brexit is still ploughing ahead - led by someone who voted to remain and supported by a mix of people who had jobs that were nothing to do with Brexit for the past two years. Of course it will be claimed as a total victory for the majority and a guiding light for other country's to follow, that's even if it fails and the pound drops further. Just wait till the end of March 2019 and see what happens - unless you are in the position to change anything then there is nothing else you can do about it apart from pontificate on how good/bad it will be.
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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by PoshinDevon »

waddo wrote:Waz, steady on there! You are in real danger of bringing this list of moans, groans and discussions back on track with the title of the thread!

I rarely respond to Waz for the simple reason that any questions I have asked in the past few months have in the main never been answered, answered with a question or any response is just a tad condescending with always a hint of “if you voted leave you must be stupid”

On my weekly visit to this thread, I award Erol the first prize for providing facts (even if people don't like them) and of course ETS gets the bigger prize (naturally) for failing to answer any direct question with anything other than another question - perfect stance for any budding MP!

Think that ETS has provided a few facts in the message above........just saying like. Waz has IMO already won the prize of not answering a question or asking another question.

Brexit is still ploughing ahead - led by someone who voted to remain and supported by a mix of people who had jobs that were nothing to do with Brexit for the past two years. Of course it will be claimed as a total victory for the majority and a guiding light for other country's to follow, that's even if it fails and the pound drops further. Just wait till the end of March 2019 and see what happens - unless you are in the position to change anything then there is nothing else you can do about it apart from pontificate on how good/bad it will be.
This thread will keep ticking along and makes for an interesting read - I for one am gathering a lot of information from the latest posts by Erol and ETS. I suspect this topic may see an increase in readership and possibly contributions in the next few weeks as the so called draft agreement goes to a vote. If it is really happening and the U.K. does leave next March no doubt this thread or a similar one will see the lots of discussion and debate as the date approaches.

Whatever your views on Brexit it has stimulated debate on this forum which is no bad thing.
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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by erol »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:No what actually happened was ....
Sorry ETS but for me quoting the opinions of Christopher Booker, a long time euro sceptic, a climate change sceptic, a sceptic of the link between passive smoking and cancer (hmm I am starting to see a pattern here) and a sceptic of the theory of evolution and believer in 'intelligent design' as 'fact', is not what I consider compelling evidence.

For me it is exactly the kind of source that needs careful consideration and checking. Like looking at the actual treaty they are talking about and seeing if it matches their description of it.

https://www.cvce.eu/content/publication ... ble_en.pdf

For me I am afraid your source fails this test rather badly.

A bit off topic but I have to ask ETS are you also a believer in 'intelligent design' over the theory of evolution as well ?

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

Always attack the source if you can't actually disprove the argument.

Think Booker is on the money on some things not others.

Do believe in evolution because there is proof not theory.
Re god when people keep saying he'll be here by such and such a date and he doesn't appear I get a bit dubious bit like climate change really.
If you tell make the ice is going to disappear by such and such a date and a few years later it hasn't don't blame me if I get a bit dubious of future predictions.

"Evidence" can be spun any which way you like but generally you have to use a bit of common sense too.

The civil service would in effect have to cut itself and turkeys don't generally vote for Christmas.

An inordinate amount of civil service leaders leave to go into consultancy. The civil service bill for consultants is in billions.
Is it only me that can join the dots there?

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by erol »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Always attack the source if you can't actually disprove the argument.
Thanks for the tip. I had noticed your use of the technique previously but like I say try reading the actual treaty that I gave the link to and then compare what it actually says with what Christopher Booker claims it says and make up your own mind as to how accurate his description of it is. That is what I did.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Do believe in evolution because there is proof not theory.
Well Mr Booker would disagree with you there.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:The civil service would in effect have to cut itself and turkeys don't generally vote for Christmas.

An inordinate amount of civil service leaders leave to go into consultancy. The civil service bill for consultants is in billions.
Is it only me that can join the dots there?
Are you saying you believe it is impossible that there are less UK Civil Servants today than 73 , because Turkey's don't vote for Christmas ? Is that your logic ? If it is then its the same deal for both. Turkeys do not get a vote for Christmas and Civil Servants (alone) do not get to vote for how many Civil Servants may or may not be cut by a given government. As for consultancy and the revolving door between Civil Servants and Government, how does that prove that the number of Civil Servants in UK could not have decreased from 73 ?

Any luck in finding anyone yet who supports your view that UK civil service numbers have increased since 73 ? Is there any point at which on failing to find such your even entertain the notion that your are just wrong on this rather than blaming on the other sides narrative being too well polished or on consultants becoming civil servants and visa versa or Turkeys or any other excuse to avoid considering your are wrong ?

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by PoshinDevon »

On 31 March 2017, there were 332,800 Civil Service employees in England, 43,220 in Scotland, 32,440 in Wales and 3,760 in Northern Ireland. The number of civil servants increased in Wales by 4.1%, in Northern Ireland by 6.7% and in Scotland by 0.4%. The number of civil servants employed overseas increased by 0.3%.Jul 19, 2017. Source: ONS

https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hans ... l-servants

Whilst wandering around the Internet........

Membership applications by the UK to join the EEC were refused in 1963 and 1967 because the French President of the time Charles de Gaulle doubted the UK's political will. It is understood, however, his real fear was that English would suddenly become the common language of the community. Source: BBC on this day 1/1/1973
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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by waz-24-7 »

Sorry but I think the debate has flown drastically off topic.

Who is in favour of the "deal"? OR Oust Mrs May and thus "no deal" OR Go back to the people for a consensus vote ?

The ins and outs of historical Union by gones and precursors is hardly of much importance in this highly charged topic and at such a critical crossroads in the history of the UK.

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

waz-24-7 wrote:Sorry but I think the debate has flown drastically off topic.

Who is in favour of the "deal"? OR Oust Mrs May and thus "no deal" OR Go back to the people for a consensus vote ?

The ins and outs of historical Union by gones and precursors is hardly of much importance in this highly charged topic and at such a critical crossroads in the history of the UK.
Waz, no deal they don’t get a cent and let’s see what they come back with. Happy?

Erol do you believe every figure that’s spoon fed to you. For example in ten years we bred a super generation and 50% and three or four times as many school leavers were clever enough to go to university?
If yes do you want to buy a second hand car ten years old but will have only five thousand miles on the clock.... eventually!

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
waz-24-7 wrote:Sorry but I think the debate has flown drastically off topic.

Who is in favour of the "deal"? OR Oust Mrs May and thus "no deal" OR Go back to the people for a consensus vote ?

The ins and outs of historical Union by gones and precursors is hardly of much importance in this highly charged topic and at such a critical crossroads in the history of the UK.
Waz, no deal they don’t get a cent and let’s see what they come back with. Happy?

Erol do you believe every figure that’s spoon fed to you. For example in ten years we bred a super generation and 50% and three or four times as many school leavers were clever enough to go to university?
If yes do you want to buy a second hand car ten years old but will have only five thousand miles on the clock.... eventually!

Hmmm
ETS....Fight them on the beaches and burn their children.
You are indeed armed to the teeth and a fighting force. This is not a war and there will me no winners...just losers.
I guess as long as the UK is the lesser loser you will be happy. Very poor attitude I think.

A no deal will, in my view , be far more damaging to the UK. Our government will be in total disarray...even worse than it was post referendum.

I think we should take the deal and lessen the loss. The economy will be able to re adjust to the new deal even tho its realistically an uncertain departure and the divorce hearing is drawn out over next two years minimum.
OR
The people are given the choice. The outcome is , in my view, uncertain as animosity between the Union and the UK has been fueled to a level that many see the EU as an enemy and relations on going are somewhat soured regardless. This is one of the biggest losses to date in my opinion.

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by erol »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote: Erol do you believe every figure that’s spoon fed to you.
No I do not. What I also try not to do is just believe any figures that fit with what I would like to be true and find excuses to ignore or dismiss any that do not. I at least try my best to be equally critical to 'figures', both those that confirm things I already believe and those that do not. As a fan of consistency to do otherwise would be hypocritical. Can you say the same ?
EnjoyingTheSun wrote: For example in ten years we bred a super generation and 50% and three or four times as many school leavers were clever enough to go to university?
I think think that creating an environment where larger numbers of people have the opportunity to stay in education past 18 is a positive and progressive thing potentially for the individuals and for the country as a whole. Nothing to do with intelligence.
waz-24-7 wrote: Who is in favour of the "deal"? OR Oust Mrs May and thus "no deal" OR Go back to the people for a consensus vote ?
For me personally waz-24-7 your questions are irrelevant as I no longer have any say. I have now been resident outside of the UK over 15 years and thus would have no vote even if there was a new referendum or any vote in the event of a general election. I am just a spectator now even though the decisions made will affect me personally. So much for the 'will of the people' - guess I am no longer a person ?

The ERG / hard tory brexiters have for nearly two years now been demanding concessions to what they want under the threat of 'we will force a leadership contest if we do not get, we have the numbers' (so much for the will of the people btw). They did not get the concessions they wanted and finally last Friday they said they were going to 'pull the trigger'. Well its increasingly looking like they had nothing but blanks in their threat gun. These then are the people who claim they could of and still could even now get a better deal for the UK in negotiations with the EU. Seems unlikely to me given how badly they have played their hand even within their own party and how increasingly weak they are looking. The deal TM has thrashed out may not be great but I am pretty sure it is in fact better than anything the ERG muppets ever could have done.
Last edited by erol on Tue 20 Nov 2018 12:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by waz-24-7 »

Erol,
I trust that you may have a UK and thus an EU passport as well as possibly a kimlik and possibly an ROC passport.
The outcome will therefore have limited effect particularly if you have an ROC and hence EU passport. If you do not have same then the loss of EU citizen status will likely effect you as it will me.

Upon the deal. My view is that the EU negotiators are settled upon the deal and are in no mood to enter again into talks and discussions.
They will be very aware of the political turmoil and the weakened hand that has emerged past months.

I am afraid that the UK has handled BREXIT very poorly and I have little doubt that the UK will be a longer term loser. The deal on the table is very poor in many respects but I believe for the sake of the economy and UK workers. We should cut our losses and DEAL.

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by erol »

waz-24-7 wrote:Erol,
I trust that you may have a UK and thus an EU passport as well as possibly a kimlik and possibly an ROC passport.
The outcome will therefore have limited effect particularly if you have an ROC and hence EU passport. If you do not have same then the loss of EU citizen status will likely effect you as it will me.
I have a UK passport and citizenship. I have a kimlik card and TRNC citizenship. In theory and according to the constitution and laws of the RoC I am a RoC citizen and entitled to a RoC passport, though the reality down on the ground currently for those like myself who's RoC citizenship is the result of a single Cypriot parent seems to be, despite all legality, that the RoC is doing everything it can to deny those legal rights to people in this category.

What I also have is assets in the UK and income in sterling from such. The income from these assets when spent in non sterling currencies already dropped around 15% from within minutes of the referendum result and remain in similar depressed state relative to other currencies. No doubt the value of the assets themselves has also suffered. Even if this was to reverse tomorrow I would still be in a net loss position as a result of the Brexit referendum. My optimism that these things will get better any time soon, rather than worse, is not high currently. So even if I get a RoC passport for me the idea that this means Brexit has had and will have a limited effect on me is not one I share I am afraid.
waz-24-7 wrote:Upon the deal. My view is that the EU negotiators are settled upon the deal and are in no mood to enter again into talks and discussions. They will be very aware of the political turmoil and the weakened hand that has emerged past months.
I think they have settled on no more concessions to UK desires. I am not sure they are so settled in terms of EU member state desires. Spain is already saying it will not support the deal at the 25th summit if it also covers Gibraltar. Now the exit deal is subject to qualified majority voting by the EU members, though in Brexit guidelines issued by the EU it was stated that no deal affecting Gibraltar will be allowed unless it had the separate consent of Spain, which implies a Spanish veto. Even if that is not the case, any future trade deal to be thrashed out after the exit deal is ratified by both EU and UK (which right now seems an impossible task) will not be subject to qualified majority voting - each and every EU member will have a unilateral right to veto on that deal. I believe it's a 'sovereignty' thing. No doubt at that stage, should we ever get to it, all sorts of EU members, each with their own sovereign right to veto any EU / UK trade deal may have some ideas of 'concessions' they aspire to. Like the RoC perhaps ?

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by Mimi2 »

Well worth a read.
Time to tell the EU we are off!!!

An interesting view from Australia:

Former Australian PM Tony Abbott...

"It’s pretty hard for Britain’s friends, here in Australia, to make sense of the mess that’s being made of Brexit. The referendum result was perhaps the biggest-ever vote of confidence in the United Kingdom, its past and its future. But the British establishment doesn’t seem to share that confidence and instead looks desperate to cut a deal, even if that means staying under the rule of Brussels. Looking at this from abroad, it’s baffling: the country that did the most to bring democracy into the modern world might yet throw away the chance to take charge of its own destiny.

Let’s get one thing straight: a negotiation that you’re not prepared to walk away from is not a negotiation — it’s surrender. It’s all give and no get. When David Cameron tried to renegotiate Britain’s EU membership, he was sent packing because Brussels judged (rightly) that he’d never actually back leaving. And since then, Brussels has made no real concessions to Theresa May because it judges (rightly, it seems) that she’s desperate for whatever deal she can get.

The EU’s palpable desire to punish Britain for leaving vindicates the Brexit project. Its position, now, is that there’s only one ‘deal’ on offer, whereby the UK retains all of the burdens of EU membership but with no say in setting the rules. The EU seems to think that Britain will go along with this because it’s terrified of no deal. Or, to put it another way, terrified of the prospect of its own independence.

But even after two years of fearmongering and vacillation, it’s not too late for robust leadership to deliver the Brexit that people voted for. It’s time for Britain to announce what it will do if the EU can’t make an acceptable offer by March 29 next year — and how it would handle no deal. Freed from EU rules, Britain would automatically revert to world trade, using rules agreed by the World Trade Organization. It works pretty well for Australia. So why on earth would it not work just as well for the world’s fifth-largest economy?

A world trade Brexit lets Britain set its own rules. It can say, right now, that it will not impose any tariff or quota on European produce and would recognise all EU product standards. That means no border controls for goods coming from Europe to Britain. You don’t need to negotiate this: just do it. If Europe knows what’s in its own best interests, it would fully reciprocate in order to maintain entirely free trade and full mutual recognition of standards right across Europe.

Next, the UK should declare that Europeans already living here should have the right to remain permanently — and, of course, become British citizens if they wish. This should be a unilateral offer. Again, you don’t need a deal. You don’t need Michel Barnier’s permission. If Europe knows what’s best for itself, it would likewise allow Britons to stay where they are.

Third, there should continue to be free movement of people from Europe into Britain — but with a few conditions. Only for work, not welfare. And with a foreign worker’s tax on the employer, to make sure anyone coming in would not be displacing British workers.

Fourth, no ‘divorce bill’ whatsoever should be paid to Brussels. The UK government would assume the EU’s property and liabilities in Britain, and the EU would assume Britain’s share of these in Europe. If Britain was getting its fair share, these would balance out; and if Britain wasn’t getting its fair share, it’s the EU that should be paying Britain.

Finally, there’s no need on Britain’s part for a hard border with Ireland. Britain wouldn’t be imposing tariffs on European goods, so there’s no money to collect. The UK has exactly the same product standards as the Republic, so let’s not pretend you need to check for problems we all know don’t exist. Some changes may be needed but technology allows for smart borders: there was never any need for a Cold War-style Checkpoint Charlie. Irish citizens, of course, have the right to live and work in the UK in an agreement that long predates EU membership.

Of course, the EU might not like this British leap for independence. It might hit out with tariffs and impose burdens on Britain as it does on the US — but WTO rules put a cap on any retaliatory action. The worst it can get? We’re talking levies of an average 4 or 5 per cent. Which would be more than offset by a post-Brexit devaluation of the pound (which would have the added bonus of making British goods more competitive everywhere).

UK officialdom assumes that a deal is vital, which is why so little thought has been put into how Britain might just walk away. Instead, officials have concocted lurid scenarios featuring runs on the pound, gridlock at ports, grounded aircraft, hoarding of medicines and flights of investment. It’s been the pre-referendum Project Fear campaign on steroids. And let’s not forget how employment, investment and economic growth ticked up after the referendum.

As a former prime minister of Australia and a lifelong friend of your country, I would say this: Britain has nothing to lose except the shackles that the EU imposes on it. After the courage shown by its citizens in the referendum, it would be a tragedy if political leaders go wobbly now. Britain’s future has always been global, rather than just with . Like so many of Britain’s admirers, I want to see this great country seize this chance and make the most of it."

Tony Abbott served as Prime Minister of Australia from 2013 to 2015

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by erol »

Mimi2 wrote:Well worth a read.
Already been posted (pasted) in full in this thread mimi2

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by Mowgli597 »

Brexit’s obscure impacts: the borders of Cyprus

An interesting, if somewhat academic, article dated April 2018.

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by erol »

Mowgli597 wrote:Brexit’s obscure impacts: the borders of Cyprus

An interesting, if somewhat academic, article dated April 2018.
What I find pretty obvious is that for the first time ever in terms of the balance of power between say the UK and Ireland, or the UK and Cyprus, the UK is no longer the more powerful party.

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by erol »

And in other Brexit news, the DUP abstained on a series of government budget votes last night, in seeming violation of the confidence and supply agreement they made with the Conservative party. So that was a 2 billion well spent then.

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

erol wrote:
Well Mr Booker would disagree with you there.
I don't agree with everything that Booker says. It is the difference between being spoon fed. Ironically you probably believe in what Chomsky writes more than he apparently does
erol wrote: Civil Servants (alone) do not get to vote for how many Civil Servants may or may not be cut by a given government. As for consultancy and the revolving door between Civil Servants and Government, how does that prove that the number of Civil Servants in UK could not have decreased from 73 ?
No but they implement it. Step one, she who must be obeyed orders me to decorate the spare room. Step two, I agree. Step three I tell you I am decorating the spare room. Step four you tell Waz I am decorating the spare room. We are four out of five steps on decorating that spare room so you could say we have completed 80% on one hand I guess even though I haven't bought any paint yet. Hopefully you'll all forget about it and if anyone digs it up I can point out that you told Waz as a bit of an evidence trail.

OK on a sorting fly poop from pepper I acknowledge that there are less civil servants than there were in 1973 and promise not to make any connection with the explosion of consultants used by the civil service and billions spent on them. I will not point out that the majority of civil servants become consultants.
Or indeed note a coincidence in the rise of administrators in the public sector in the same period the civil service made it's "cuts." After all public sector administrators do not have the same title as civil servants even if they are doing the same job and are also paid from the public purse.
I will take as given that the civil service will have taken on no staff for different departments such as IT, HR etc etc.

I will also take for granted that the taxpayer must have saved a fortune after paying out the redundancy payments to essentially use the paid for services of, not employ, subtle difference, the same people.


Anyhow back to that car......

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

erol wrote:I think think that creating an environment where larger numbers of people have the opportunity to stay in education past 18 is a positive and progressive thing potentially for the individuals and for the country as a whole. Nothing to do with intelligence.
Well we agree that it is nothing to do with intelligence. So you believe that the explosion in university entrants who 'gained' their 500 A* GCSEs to qualify was just down to the little orphans finally not going to school in bare feet etc?
Not a chance it was a snappy political promise that was fiddled?
Shame that they didn't run the maths and had to bring in student loans to pay for it. Still great soundbite.

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waz-24-7 wrote: Hmmm
ETS....Fight them on the beaches and burn their children.
You are indeed armed to the teeth and a fighting force. This is not a war and there will me no winners...just losers.
I guess as long as the UK is the lesser loser you will be happy. Very poor attitude I think.
You keep bringing up the war and the fact that the EU is the total reason for peace in our time.
Do know that in negotiations like war you have to be strong. You can't turn and run the first time someone gets injured.

The war is over, I wish Germany only good will, prosperity and success but I don't think the majority of the UK want to become German or a state of whoever is the most dominant power within the new country Europa.

Don't suppose you play poker do you Waz? If keen bring LOTS of money

Did you read what the Australian politician said? Any of it register?

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Post by waddo »

And in other news this morning: "Labour and Tory MPs who back a further referendum on Brexit said the public had a right to know the "full facts" about the cost of leaving the EU.

However, in a sign on tension on the EU side, Spain has said it will not agree to the draft Brexit withdrawal deal without clarity over how talks on the future status of Gibraltar should be handled." - That direct copy from BBC News.

So in answer to Waz - I would vote for another referendum by the people! If only because the people should have been made aware of the above (not the bit about Gibraltar because it was almost a given that Spain would stop anything happening UNLESS they got Gibraltar back) BEFORE the last referendum and not just been asked to vote on the basis of their limited knowledge.

The Government played a blinder, no long term plans were made before the vote, total panic ensued after the vote, nobody really expected the country to vote to leave and the continued knee jerk reactions of the Government are simply smoke and mirrors to ensure they keep their jobs no matter what happens. The sacrificial lamb became Mrs May, a remainer who overnight had to become a leaver, how does that work? Conflict of interests?

Question? What happens to the BOTs? Very little has been said about them apart from Cyprus and Gibraltar, there are some who will be out of the EU yet have borders with EU countries and that could prove interesting, then again as there are only around 6 million people in total that it may effect who cares?
Make happy those who are near and those who are far will come!

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Post by erol »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Or indeed note a coincidence in the rise of administrators in the public sector in the same period the civil service made it's "cuts." After all public sector administrators do not have the same title as civil servants even if they are doing the same job and are also paid from the public purse.
Well there you go again. What is your evidence that the public sector has increased in the period from 73 till now ? Oh yeah that is right no evidence is needed because your 'common sense' tells you this is true so therefore it must be true. Any evidence that says otherwise can and no doubt will be dismissed by you for no other reason that it does not fit what your 'common sense' tells you. Of course the same excuses used to dismiss such would never be used by you to dismiss any evidence that does fit what your common sense tells you, no matter how outside the mainstream and clearly biased that source is.
pubsec.jpg
source https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -jobs.html

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Post by cambridge »

Shocked as I am to say it, there does appear to be an establishment conspiracy against Brexit
Shocked as I am to say it, there does appear to be an establishment conspiracy against Brexit
Some months ago during a meeting of the European Parliament’s Conference of Presidents – which I sometimes attend as a substitute for EFDD Group Leader Nigel Farage – there was a report back on Brexit talks by the Parliament’s Brexit steering group.

One member hinted that keeping open routes to get the UK back into the European Union had been made a very high priority by both the EU and UK sides in the talks. At the time (pre-Chequers), I thought this to be something of a long shot. But it lodged in my mind nonetheless.

Then I heard something similar just two weeks ago from another senior EU source. This time the wording was more explicit and the concept far more developed. The plan was to get the UK back into full EU membership in time for the European Parliamentary elections of 2024, meaning we would have only technically been outside for one term, 2019-2024.

Further comments suggested that a “purgatory backstop” would be used to persuade the UK to reapply for membership rather than languish in the equivalent of EU solitary confinement on a diet of bread and water. Far from having left the prison, we would have to beg to go back on the wing and probably only get accepted on inferior terms – no budget rebate, fewer national vetoes – and possibly an undertaking to be absorbed into the euro and Schengen in due course too.

Our fate would also serve as a perfect example to other troublesome member states – especially Italy and the smaller countries of central Europe – as to what would unfold when a country challenged the writ of Brussels.

Now, in general, I do not go a bundle on conspiracy theories. I am not one to blame unexpected political developments on Bilderberg Group meetings or the like. But when the issue at stake is as momentous as the future path of the United Kingdom within the international order and when a tightly-knit establishment is of one mind and yet a majority voted the opposite way, then means, motive and opportunity all point to the possibility of an organised and sophisticated subversion of the wishes of the people.

When someone as calm, analytical, well-connected and balanced as Michael Portillo declares, as he has, that there has been a conspiracy against Brexit then one’s mind is certainly opened up to that possibility. The constant stream of pro-EU British politicians who have been over to Brussels for unofficial private talks with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier merely strengthens the suspicion.

And further developments in recent days have convinced me that there is now a private understanding between leading figures in the UK political and civil service establishment on the one hand and the Brussels elite on the other that a preferred pathway to the UK rejoining is now in place.

A key moment came when Barnier raised at the weekend the prospect of an extension to the so-called “transition period” during which Britain sits as a de facto EU state – subject to all the controls and policies of the EU but without political representation – until the end of December 2022. That would mean moving into the indefinite backstop, with no unilateral right to leave it, at the start of 2023.

This timing is key because it will mean the relationship between the UK and the EU will not have been settled and will dominate a British general election that must take place by the middle of 2022. In such an election, the leading pro-EU force, the Labour Party, could blame the failure to enact Brexit and the looming purgatory of the backstop fairly and squarely on the Conservatives.

What would be more natural than for it to offer a new referendum to the British people within the first year: shall we settle into the backstop as a vassal state or rejoin the EU as a full member? In such a Hobson’s Choice referendum I doubt I would vote at all. But even I could see the logic of preferring to rejoin the EU – which a country theoretically has the right to leave – rather than being stuck in the humiliating backstop with no way out.

Up until the publication of Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, I had always thought that one secure advantage even of Brexit In Name Only would be that pro-EU forces would have to switch from being Remainers to Rejoiners – and that given only zealots would wish to reopen this can of worms anytime soon, they would find that a very hard sell.

And yet the Remainer Theresa May has managed to create an attainable path for them by making her own version of Brexit so appalling that even Brexiteers are saying being in the EU is better.

And what serviceable proposition could the Tories put in their own manifesto at the next election to compete for votes on this dominant issue? On the working assumption that May has been succeeded either by another figure who campaigned for Remain in 2016 or a lukewarm Leaver, there is every chance that the Conservatives too would support giving the public an “emergency brake” on the Brexit process in a new referendum. After all, they would be able to point out that the referendum mandate was now six years old and that a lot of water had flowed under the political bridge since then.

What the Tories will certainly not be able to do is promise to take the UK out of the backstop and out of the customs union and into a future of new dynamic trade deals with the sunrise parts of the global economy. They will have precluded that possibility via their own undertakings to the EU during the present Parliament. They will have locked our country into a legally-enforceable trap and could only promise a credible way out of it with the goodwill and support of the European Commission and other EU institutions. And the only way the EU will ever allow us out is if we rejoin.

As Sabine Weyand – Mr Barnier’s German deputy – recently told reporters, the withdrawal agreement hands the EU sufficient leverage to ensure the UK remains in permanent high alignment with it.

So as the House of Commons’ “meaningful vote” on Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement draws near, it is clearer than ever that nobody who is sincere about supporting Brexit should have anything to do with her plan.

It will inexorably lead not to taking back control, but to a further diminution of UK national sovereignty, below the eight per cent voting weight we have in the Council of Ministers or the 10 per cent in the European Parliament to zero per cent in transition and then in the backstop.

And if we rejoin instead, we will be going back to an EU that is pushing ahead fast with setting up its own army and will have abolished more national vetoes thanks to powers that Jean-Claude Juncker has referred to as unused “treasure of the Lisbon Treaty”.

That a British Prime Minister could have played a central role in locking the UK onto such a path after having stood at the general election on a down-the-line Brexit manifesto is profoundly shocking. Her culpability is complete. Remember she went behind the backs of two successive Brexit Secretaries to make far-reaching concessions to Brussels and twice tried to bounce her Cabinet into signing up to her plans in ruthlessly plotted manipulations at Chequers in the summer and 10 Downing Street last week.

The role of the Chancellor in not only blocking most preparations for a no-deal Brexit but also organising big business warnings of Armageddon should we leave without an agreement has also been crucial. But it can now be seen that the idea he was ever being “slapped down” by a Prime Minister committed to delivering on her Brexit promises was always an elaborate con.

The only chance we now have of rescuing Brexit is if MPs vote down Mrs May’s deal and the Government is forced to switch course to preparing for a WTO Brexit (by the way, in what state are those contracts with ferry companies that we were told would need to be signed by the end of last week to make such a course viable?).

Mrs May’s threat – sometimes uttered, sometimes withdrawn – that voting down her deal may lead to no Brexit at all should not put off a single Brexiteer. No Brexit at all would force into the open the establishment conspiracy against Brexit, leave us with our 8-10 per cent residual sovereignty intact in the EU, save us a bundle of money and give us every chance of seeing a genuinely pro-Brexit Prime Minister take office with a landslide majority and on a mission to right the wrong in 2022.

Certainly a no-deal Brexit at the end of next March will now be bumpier in the short-term than it need have been had it been properly planned for over an extended period. But as one wag put it over the weekend, on 4th July 1776 the United States of America crashed out of the British Empire without a deal. And it has never looked back.

Thanks to the political venality of Theresa May, the choice facing our country is between freedom and serfdom.



Sent from my iPad

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Post by erol »

cambridge wrote:Shocked as I am to say.............
Or you could have just posted the link ?

https://brexitcentral.com/shocked-i-say ... cy-brexit/

which would have had the added benefit of making clear who had written this.

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Post by cambridge »

Erol, the piece in question came to me without any link or attribution that, lacking your technical expertise, I could find. I simply pass it on as an interesting viewpoint.

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Post by erol »

cambridge wrote: I simply pass it on as an interesting viewpoint.
In a similar vein

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-setba ... s-11558745

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Post by erol »

Here is another article that may be of interest, written by David Davis

https://www.conservativehome.com/platfo ... ed-us.html
If we need to leave with no deal and negotiate a free trade agreement during the transition period, so be it.
Er if we leave with no deal then there is also no transition period. I do not know about anyone else but I find it pretty scary that the person who was in charge of the Brexit negotiations for the UK until he resigned does not seem to understand even this simple reality ! The term 'muppet' comes to my mind once again I am afraid.

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Post by erol »

Contradictions ?

One of the constant themes I hear from the Brexit camp is 'do not worry about a no deal, we will just go to WTO rules on trade and all will be fine.'

Another one is 'Of course the EU will agree a trade deal with us, as they will want to keep selling us Mercedes Cars and Champagne and Prosseco.'

If the effects of a 'no deal' exit in terms of trade are not to be feared by the UK, because there is the backstop of WTO rules, then why would German car manufacturers or French and Italian wine makers fear the EU failing to conclude a trade agreement with the UK ? They will also have the same backstop of WTO rules to ensure they can continue to sell their cars and wine to us with limits on what tariffs or restrictions the UK could place on these goods.

Then remember that the UK buys more goods from the EU than it sells to them but it sells more services to the EU than the EU sells to the UK. WTO rules do not cover services, only goods. So the UK will have strict limits (wither 'sovereignty there ?) on what tariffs and restrictions it could place on German car makers and French and Italian wine makers trying to sell to the UK in a 'no deal' scenario but EU states will have no limit placed on any restriction or tariffs, no matter how punitive, they might seeks to place on the sale of UK services in the EU.

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Post by erol »

In regards to the article written by UKIP MEP Patrick O’Flynn and posted here in full earlier (https://brexitcentral.com/shocked-i-say ... cy-brexit/)

In this article he talks about an alleged 'establishment conspiracy against Brexit'. As far as I am concerned no 'group' has done more to increase the chance of Brexit not happening at all that the one he is part of. Here is some stuff I wrote on the subject back in May
If I were pro Brexit then I would argue that the biggest risk to brexit not happening at all would be a minority maximalist group, in trying to get everything all at once, risking ending up getting nothing. It is said politics is the art of the possible. I also think this maximalist minority know the risks this approach creates but I personally think they fear that unless they go all out now for a kind of brexit that makes it impossible to go back, the people may well over time change their minds. I think they would and are risking all now not because they believe in the 'will of the people' but because they fear it and it's fickle nature.
At the risk of repeating myself, imo going for everything (total separation) all at once under an unrealistic time pressure and a government that was unable to secure a parliamentary majority is the biggest threat to brexit not happening at all. If I were pro brexit I would argue lets just get out first even it it means compromise and messy continuations in things like some form of customs union. If we can leave the EU then leaving a customs union down the road, with more time and perhaps under a government that has the mandate necessary to pass the required legislation, has to be both possible and easier. Of course this is based on the assumption that 'down the road' that is what the majority of the British people will want.
If I put on my most cynical of hats I could imagine that TM as a 'remainer' whole strategy has been to try and be seen to 'deliver' on brexit whilst actually following a policy that she knows will and can only fail to deliver it. Trigger article 50 before we are ready. Create an environment where no consensus amongst ourselves is found or can be found. Place bills before the HoL and HoC that she knows will not and can not secure the votes needed to pass them. Wait for parliament, when faced with a choice of staying in or crashing out, to chose staying in and keep negotiating. Job done, objective achieved and all whilst being able to make out she did everything possible to try and deliver Brexit, but was thwarted by Parliament.

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Already been posted (pasted) in full in this thread mimi2

Sorry Erol but I don't have time to read this whole thread. I just want UK out of EU

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Post by erol »

Mimi2 wrote:Sorry Erol but I don't have time to read this whole thread. I just want UK out of EU
Does the deal currently being proposed get the UK out of the EU in your view ?

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Post by waz-24-7 »

erol wrote:
Mimi2 wrote:Sorry Erol but I don't have time to read this whole thread. I just want UK out of EU
Does the deal currently being proposed get the UK out of the EU in your view ?
In my view.
No it certainly does not.
The DEAL is possibly the best we can secure. It puts the UK in a weaker and less influential position.
The NO DEAL would be even worse and I fore see many years of struggle as the UK attempts to establish itself into new trade deals and friendships.
The loss (at least in part) of our nearest and open gateway to trade cannot be replaced in any reasonable timescale. The work force in the UK and prosperity will be forced to pay the price of divorce.

I firmly believe that many if not most. Do not contemplate or understand the magnitude of the task and difficulties that will be presented as trade and employment migrates away from UK shores.

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Post by kerry 6138 »

waz-24-7 wrote:
I firmly believe that many if not most. Do not contemplate or understand the magnitude of the task and difficulties that will be presented as trade and employment migrates away from UK shores.
May I refer you to point 5 in the original post

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Post by waz-24-7 »

kerry 6138 wrote:
waz-24-7 wrote:
I firmly believe that many if not most. Do not contemplate or understand the magnitude of the task and difficulties that will be presented as trade and employment migrates away from UK shores.
May I refer you to point 5 in the original post
Thank you Kerry. Yes.
It remains the case.
I can relay in my own industry (automotive) based on factual events. Two major iconic UK automotive brands have commenced a move of production from the UK to Netherlands and Slovakia. Two models of vehicle that are top 5 sellers in UK are starting production right now.
Whilst this is not announced or generally known. The shift of production makes absolute sense. Its relatively easy whilst the UK remains in the EU.
Manufacturing support is in abundance as European regions vie for new industry and employment.
I fully expected the Europeans to step out their marketing teams to capitalize on a clear opportunity to compete against a vulnerable UK economy.
I'm afraid the UK investment and sales brochure is rather bland right now.

Whilst I continue to explore all opportunities to trade offshore. ( and we do and have done for many years) The prospects of ongoing EU trade is without doubt diminished. Several high level communications have asked for contingency plans against possible customs or border delays.
I have very little positive response whilst competitors now market and promote their ability to offer seamless European supply.
These are the real issues that many are not aware of.

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I used to work in the automotive industry ,in a factory opened in 1930 but closed in 2007 PB (pre Bexit) because the EU insisted the US company wanting to invest should , I believe the term used was divest one of its two plants in the UK, because of competition rules, so my place of work and all intellectual rights were sold to an Italian company who promptly moved production to Italy.

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Post by waz-24-7 »

kerry 6138 wrote:I used to work in the automotive industry ,in a factory opened in 1930 but closed in 2007 PB (pre Bexit) because the EU insisted the US company wanting to invest should , I believe the term used was divest one of its two plants in the UK, because of competition rules, so my place of work and all intellectual rights were sold to an Italian company who promptly moved production to Italy.

Yes,
This type of thing happens increasingly. Business and trade is truly global and certainly takeovers and mergers happen every single day.
To win the game one must be in the game and at the table. To vacate the table is a certain way to lose the game.
The UK has a tremendously good work force. Productivity in its OEM car plants is world renowned. Unfortunately. Any hinderance to free market trade for OEM products is a ticket to closure. Skilled workers will move with the work. I have visited car plants all over the world. British engineers are a strong export commodity. The home nurtured semi skilled work force are far less able to migrate offshore. These people will be the casualties of any decline. I talk about the car industry as an example. This industry is preparing for all eventualities and they will most definitely up sticks and go.
Why. Because it really is easy and because they want to make more money. Any hindrance to that is reason enough to go. A NO DEAL is a very good reason.

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Post by Mowgli597 »

I was re-reading the Orams case as a matter of interest (don’t ask!).

While I’m not a lawyer it seems that a central tenet in the case was that the judgement of the court in Nicosia against the Orams was pursued in the U.K. using an EU regulation, Regulation No 44/2001.

As I understand it that regulation says that a court decision in one EU member state can (and should?) be implemented in any other member state. Thus the Orams were brought to court in the U.K. to effect the Nicosia court’s judgement.

Their subsequent defence, finally rejected by the European Court of Justice (ECJ), was that although the RoC was a member state, because the acquis communautaire did not apply to North Cyprus the judgement should not be brought against them in the U.K. Initially the U.K. courts agreed but, as I say, the ECJ overturned this.

Sorry for the verbosity but the point I’m getting to is that after Brexit presumably such a case would no longer be able to be pursued in the U.K. since it would not be a member state.

Or a meringue??!!

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Post by PoshinDevon »

Mowgli,

Thanks for your post, an interesting thought.

The only thing wrong with it is that the chaos around Brexit seems to worsen by the day so who knows what will happen and will we leave?

Found this site whilst wandering around the Internet. I haven’t delved deeply into it yet but will do over the next few days. https://endthechaos.co.uk/

The only caveat is that it was started by Gina Miller who is clearly pro remain and someone I am not keen on. But hey I am happy to read what is on the website and see if it can give me more information to influence my thoughts on the subject.
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Post by waz-24-7 »

Thank you Posh for the link.
Gina miller is clearly and correctly interested in views of people 2 years on. 2 million non eligible younger voters (18yrs)now have a view. Whilst the videos are rather biased it reflects what I think is true. Many people have re adjusted their position as facts, threats and risks have become more apparent.
Almost every pole out there as seen on recent channel 4 documentary reflect a change of heart by Brexit voters.

However,
In my view the damage is done, Some is irreversible as City of London finance status has already commenced a shift to Frankfurt, Paris and other centers. Could this be recovered....I think not. Many investment houses, equity funds and others have set sights on more stable, lucrative and profitable markets. Winning back business is always difficult once lost to others.

Given the ongoing and current turmoil. The damage and harm increases. £ sterling has declined again to $1.27 today and FTSE shows negative almost daily. The losses are not massive but the trend is worrying.

Is this scaremongering. Its open to debate. I cannot forecast any positives in this uncertainty. Can anyone please?

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Post by erol »

Not what you might expect from the Guardian’s economics editor

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ft-economy

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

waz-24-7 wrote: Gina miller is clearly and correctly interested in views of people 2 years on. 2 million non eligible younger voters (18yrs)now have a view.
So she wasn't trying to influence people's views before now?

How many voters who were not eligible in 1975 are there now?

How about we leave and in 20 years time hold another referendum on whether to go back in? That's got to be fair isn't it?

Half the time we got after the 1975 referendum and a fair amount of time to see Brexit's long term effect on the UK economy without guessing.
Also we can see how the EU project is progressing, how much sovereignty had been stripped from it's members and indeed how many members the EU still has.

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Post by waz-24-7 »

ETS
I believe its gone a way past the REMAIN or LEAVE.
The debate now is DEAL or NO DEAL.
Given the NO DEAL may possibly force a general election and possibly a second referendum...God Forbid!
I guess you may be a DEAL supporter.
Me too

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

waz-24-7 wrote:ETS
I believe its gone a way past the REMAIN or LEAVE.
The debate now is DEAL or NO DEAL.
Given the NO DEAL may possibly force a general election and possibly a second referendum...God Forbid!
I guess you may be a DEAL supporter.
Me too
The debate is DEAL, GOOD DEAL or NO DEAL.
I'm for good deal or walk away with no deal.

The whole history of the EU has been an illustration of taking power by stealth so a deal where we are as good as still in it has no appeal and totally goes against what the majority voted for.

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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by waz-24-7 »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
waz-24-7 wrote:ETS
I believe its gone a way past the REMAIN or LEAVE.
The debate now is DEAL or NO DEAL.
Given the NO DEAL may possibly force a general election and possibly a second referendum...God Forbid!
I guess you may be a DEAL supporter.
Me too
The debate is DEAL, GOOD DEAL or NO DEAL.
I'm for good deal or walk away with no deal.

The whole history of the EU has been an illustration of taking power by stealth so a deal where we are as good as still in it has no appeal and totally goes against what the majority voted for.

I think it is very clear that the DEAL is there as per Mrs May.
I think every one bar a few will NOT support a walk away with NO Deal.

If that was the final choice then I would fully support putting it to the people. Probably a general election to boot.
Certainly Mrs May is selling the DEAL as the BREXIT that the referendum sanctioned.
Many have made it clear that they will not support the deal.
The same persons are not offering any plausible alternative. Several are waiting in the wings to secure political power for their own gains.

There is no other deal currently on the table.
Cut off your nose to spite your face is a sure fired disaster waiting to happen.

turtle
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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by turtle »

waz-24-7 wrote:
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
waz-24-7 wrote:ETS
I believe its gone a way past the REMAIN or LEAVE.
The debate now is DEAL or NO DEAL.
Given the NO DEAL may possibly force a general election and possibly a second referendum...God Forbid!
I guess you may be a DEAL supporter.
Me too
The debate is DEAL, GOOD DEAL or NO DEAL.
I'm for good deal or walk away with no deal.

The whole history of the EU has been an illustration of taking power by stealth so a deal where we are as good as still in it has no appeal and totally goes against what the majority voted for.

I think it is very clear that the DEAL is there as per Mrs May.
I think every one bar a few will NOT support a walk away with NO Deal.

If that was the final choice then I would fully support putting it to the people. Probably a general election to boot.
Certainly Mrs May is selling the DEAL as the BREXIT that the referendum sanctioned.
Many have made it clear that they will not support the deal.
The same persons are not offering any plausible alternative. Several are waiting in the wings to secure political power for their own gains.

There is no other deal currently on the table.
Cut off your nose to spite your face is a sure fired disaster waiting to happen.
Sound on this is pants (sound man must have been a remainer) but stick with it as these are real businessmen with real life experiences and they DO have an alternative Plan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnGX90n5AvM

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waz-24-7
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Re: Brexit - Sensible thoughts on a highly charged topic

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Post by waz-24-7 »

Hmm
Interesting watch certainly. Rather polarized.
Steel for example is rather unique. It a commodity that circulates around the world as a basic requirement of Industry. It is traded by the tonne in usually USA $. If we all sold steel then the market is indeed worldwide and the commodity is straightforward and listed as a commodity the same way as many raw commodities. Oil, gold, sugar, copper, zinc etc.
Anyone who thinks a NO deal will result in a friction free transition to worldwide trade and indeed the continuation of "gateway Europe" is rather silly.
The absence of a customs Union, agreement on same or indeed any replacement of same is like turning up at the garage and asking if you can pay for fuel with a foreign currency. The garage has no facilities to take foreign currency. Is confused over exchange rates. May want the order and take payment but will need to contact their bank to arrange the deal. In the meantime. You're late for work.

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