DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by wizardofmann »

I got as far as this post and my eye's could not believe what I was reading. I hope this poster is hard skinned because they could well end up with a lot of egg on their face. The rest of the poster's have too much time on their hands and just keep going round in never ending circles and are at risk of disappearing up somewhere dark
Not sure if it is a good deal but think the following scenario may happen:

Mrs May’s Deal is rejected by Parliament in December (Brexiteers, Labour, SNP and DUP voting against Govt.

Mrs May remains as PM

Feeble attempt by Mrs May and the Civil Service to prepare for Brexit (mid Dec to 29/3/2019)

UK leaves EU on 29th March 2019 with No deal

Serious Logistical problems follow. E.g. Sterling devalued, catastrophic delays at Ports, food shortages, airport delays for UK holidaymakers, strikes, unemployment, demonstrations... Fear campaign by Treasury, Bank of England, Remainer Tories, CBI, EU etc.

Mrs May tells Nation and MPs these problems would have been avoided had they all supported “My Deal”. (She will refer to the efforts she made to appeal to the MPs and her round the UK trip to gain People support.)

Next year or so continuing problems which Mrs May says I told you so (many of these problems could have been avoided had the Govt effectively prepared for Brexit, but they didn’t do so because they didn’t want the UK to leave the EU.)

Mrs May gets large donations for the forthcoming election from large companies (CBI etc) reminding them it was not her fault there was a No Deal. She reminds them the Labour Party voted against her deal.

Large groundswell of dissatisfaction, (demonstrations from Remainers, students etc, public meetings, BBC and British Press (particularly the "turned" Daily Mail) etc

2022 General election - Mrs May’s Tory Manifesto offers the opportunity of another Referendum

Landslide victory for Mrs May

Referendum called. Remainers win.

2023 UK rejoins EU.

2024 UK replaces £ with Euro
What I can safely say, the EU parliament/leaders are cacking themselves, because it is general knowledge at least three other member countries are thinking on the same lines as the UK. That is the reason they are making it as hard a possible for the UK!

As the song goes: Whatever will be will be, the future's not ours to see, que sera que sera.

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu ... m-35980571

The limit was £7 million? I guess it's all about timing although I don't remember agreeing my tax money should be spent on this?

I guess this is a rehash of Banks accepting Russian money to spend on a UK vote.
Hungarian/American money is obviously ok though. How much do you think Soros funnelled into the Remain campaign?

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by turtle »

Remain could have spent £100m on the campaign but it would have been wasted on me.

Soros is a snake and is stlll meddling in the affairs that don't concern him.

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

turtle wrote:Remain could have spent £100m on the campaign but it would have been wasted on me.

Soros is a snake and is stlll meddling in the affairs that don't concern him.
He makes a lot of money out of that meddling, he doesn't let his principles get in the way of earning.
He advocates higher taxation for the wealthy his fund Quantum is incorporated in the Netherlands Antilles. Which also has the bonus of meaning it is not under SEC rules or public scrutiny which is ironic given he is such a fan of open government.
He did pour millions of money in aid to Kosovo which I'm sure had little to do with his efforts to gain control of the state owned Trepca mine complex and it's $5 billion in gold and silver reserves.
Still he is a darling of the left so obviously is exempt from being hypocrite.

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by erol »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote: Hungarian/American money is obviously ok though. How much do you think Soros funnelled into the Remain campaign?
I know of no evidence that any of the 7 million that the official leave campaign legally spent during the period defined in law for that spending came from Soros but if you have any evidence please do present it or better still send it to the electoral commission. For such a vociferous denouncer of those who subscribe to conspiracy theories you do seem to be somewhat selective at times it seems to me

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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erol wrote:
EnjoyingTheSun wrote: Hungarian/American money is obviously ok though. How much do you think Soros funnelled into the Remain campaign?
I know of no evidence that any of the 7 million that the official leave campaign legally spent during the period defined in law for that spending came from Soros but if you have any evidence please do present it or better still send it to the electoral commission. For such a vociferous denouncer of those who subscribe to conspiracy theories you do seem to be somewhat selective at times it seems to me
Totally or selectively misread my point as normal.
I believe the spending limit on the campaigns was meant to be £7 million so the Government sneaking through a £9 million spend through out of tax payer money was creative to say the least considering they should have tried to be non partisan.


However much Soros spent I wouldnt like to speculate as I do not have his skill at hiding money but note that all fire goes on Banks and none on him as per normal.

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by erol »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Totally or selectively misread my point as normal.
The point is there is there are laws that define what should be spent in a specific period by specific separate entities.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote: I believe the spending limit on the campaigns was meant to be £7 million so the Government sneaking through a £9 million spend through out of tax payer money was creative to say the least considering they should have tried to be non partisan.
I agree that Cameron's leaflet was morally dubious but it was not legally so. Banks could have spent any amount he wanted before the period defined in law for spending limits started and such would have been in line with the law.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote: However much Soros spent I wouldnt like to speculate as I do not have his skill at hiding money but note that all fire goes on Banks and none on him as per normal.
There is no evidence that any of the 7 million the remain campaign legally spent in the campaigning period came from Soros. Suggesting that Soros funded any of that 7 million to me seems like a 'conspiracy theory'. There is evidence that Banks broke the law and there is also evidence that suggests that the way it was spent and the time at which it was spent could well have made a material difference to the result.

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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erol wrote:
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Totally or selectively misread my point as normal.
The point is there is there are laws that define what should be spent in a specific period by specific separate entities.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote: I believe the spending limit on the campaigns was meant to be £7 million so the Government sneaking through a £9 million spend through out of tax payer money was creative to say the least considering they should have tried to be non partisan.
I agree that Cameron's leaflet was morally dubious but it was not legally so. Banks could have spent any amount he wanted before the period defined in law for spending limits started and such would have been in line with the law.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote: However much Soros spent I wouldnt like to speculate as I do not have his skill at hiding money but note that all fire goes on Banks and none on him as per normal.
There is no evidence that any of the 7 million the remain campaign legally spent in the campaigning period came from Soros. Suggesting that Soros funded any of that 7 million to me seems like a 'conspiracy theory'. There is evidence that Banks broke the law and there is also evidence that suggests that the way it was spent and the time at which it was spent could well have made a material difference to the result.
I know you will never answer this but here's a scenario.
Rees Mogg takes power and decides to reintroduce capital punishment which he and his government is in favour of. He announces a referendum and the day before campaigning starts spends £10 million of tax payers money on a leaflet campaign in favour of voting to bring hanging back?

Still comfortable although it is morally dubious or is it completely different because it is something you don't agree with?


As for Soros giving the Remain side and money being a conspiracy theory he is quite open here about his financial support.

https://www.politico.eu/article/second- ... -to-start/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -eu-100000

He donated $25 million to Hilary Clinton's campaign I'd be astonished if he didn't slip a fair few quid to the remain side. As for evidence, we are talking about a man who is more skilled at hiding money than a Columbian drug cartel. If he didn't want his donation to show up as it didn't suit then it wouldn't.
I know he is in your camp so any logical speculation is a conspiracy theory. If I had speculated the Koch brother gave Brexit campaign managers £50 million I'd have to give you a large spoon to lap it up with.

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by erol »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:I know you will never answer this but here's a scenario.
Rees Mogg takes power and decides to reintroduce capital punishment which he and his government is in favour of. He announces a referendum and the day before campaigning starts spends £10 million of tax payers money on a leaflet campaign in favour of voting to bring hanging back?

Still comfortable although it is morally dubious or is it completely different because it is something you don't agree with?
I would consider such spending by the government a day before the campaigning period starts to be morally dubious but accept that it was not illegal. As we are on to hypothetical let's imagine that the vote remain had won the referendum by the same small margin leave won by and then it turns out that whilst the leave campaigns all acted within the laws on campaign spending the remain side had broken them. Would you position on such illegal spending be the same ?
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:As for Soros giving the Remain side and money being a conspiracy theory he is quite open here about his financial support.

https://www.politico.eu/article/second- ... -to-start/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -eu-100000
That Soros has, entirely legally, donated money to groups opposed to Brexit AFTER the referendum is not in doubt. There is no evidence that he funded even a penny of the official remain campaign's spending during the referendum campaigning period, which would have been illegal and neither is there any evidence that the the remain campaign spent more the allowed amount in the defined period where ever the 7 million came from. There is evidence that Bank's leave campaign spent more than the legal limits allowed during the defined campaign period and there are still serious questions about where this money actually came from. Yet you ask why Bank's is attracting more attention ?
EnjoyingTheSun wrote: ...I'd be astonished if he didn't slip a fair few quid to the remain side.
Well if your 'common sense' tells you that he funded some of the remain campaign's spending, which would be illegal, then I guess that must be true then ?
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:As for evidence, we are talking about a man who is more skilled at hiding money than a Columbian drug cartel. If he didn't want his donation to show up as it didn't suit then it wouldn't.
We can not prove he (Soros) did anything illegal but ETS 'common sense' and 'logic' tells us that he must have done, so clearly he must be guilty.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote: I know he is in your camp so any logical speculation is a conspiracy theory. If I had speculated the Koch brother gave Brexit campaign managers £50 million I'd have to give you a large spoon to lap it up with.
The findings of the electoral commission and the criminal investigations in to Banks and the leave campaign are not the result of 'logical speculation'. They are the result of evidence. That you try and equate your 'logical speculation' to the evidence against Banks and the leave campaign says something to me.

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by PoshinDevon »

Copied from elsewhere......some with more time on their hands will probably be able to disprove or rip the post to shreds. However if even a quarter is true, it’s food for thought.


JUST TO LET THE REMAINERS, know,exactly what thes EU,has cost Britain in lost businesses,over 43 Years.of membership.
Terry’s (Chocolate Oranges) moved to Poland 2005.
Cadbury moved factory to Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved to Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover has recently agreed to build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, the same company who have trashed our steel works and emptied the workers pension funds.

Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
Dyson gone to Malaysia, with an EU loan.
Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone to Poland with EU grant, once employed 1,200.

M&S manufacturing gone to far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys and models now gone from UK along with the patents all with with EU grants.
Gillette gone to eastern Europe with EU grant.
Texas Instruments Greenock gone to Germany with EU grant.
Indesit at Bodelwyddan Wales gone with EU grant.
Sekisui Alveo said production at its Merthyr Tydfil Industrial Parkafoam plant will relocate production to Roermond in the Netherlands, with EU funding.

Hoover Merthyr factory moved out of UK to Czech Republic and the Far East by Italian company Candy with EU backing.
ICI integration into Holland’s AkzoNobel with EU bank loan and within days of the merger, several factories in the UK, were closed, eliminating 3,500 jobs

Boots sold to Italians Stefano Pessina who have based their HQ in Switzerland to avoid tax to the tune of £80 million a year, using an EU loan for the purchase.
JDS Uniphase run by two Dutch men, bought up companies in the UK with £20 million in EU 'regeneration' grants, created a pollution nightmare and just closed it all down leaving 1,200 out of work and an environmental clean-up paid for by the UK tax-payer. They also raided the pension fund and drained it dry.

UK airports are owned by a Spanish company.
Scottish Power is owned by a Spanish company.
Most London buses are run by Spanish and German companies.
The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station to be built by French company EDF, part owned by the French government, using cheap Chinese steel that has catastrophically failed in other nuclear installations. Now EDF say the costs will be double or more and it will be very late even if it does come online.

Swindon was once our producer of rail locomotives and rolling stock. Not any more, it's Bombardier in Derby and due to their losses in the aviation market, that could see the end of the British railways manufacturing altogether even though Bombardier had EU grants to keep Derby going which they diverted to their loss-making aviation side in Canada.
39% of British invention patents have been passed to foreign companies, many of them in the EU

The Mini cars that Cameron stood in front of as an example of British engineering, are built by BMW mostly in Holland and Austria. His campaign bus was made in Germany even though we have Plaxton, Optare, Bluebird, Dennis etc., in the UK. The bicycle for the Greens was made in the far east, not by Raleigh UK but then they are probably going to move to the Netherlands too as they have said recently.

Anyone who thinks the EU is good for British industry or any other business simply hasn't paid attention to what has been systematically asset-stripped from the UK. Name me one major technology company still running in the UK.
I haven't detailed our non-existent fishing industry the EU paid to destroy, nor the farmers being paid NOT to produce food they could sell for more than they get paid to do nothing, don't even go there.

I haven't mentioned what it costs us to be asset-stripped like this, nor have I mentioned immigration, nor the risk to our security if control of our armed forces is passed to Brussels or Germany.

Find something that's gone the other way,moved from an EU Country to here, I've looked and searched and I just can't find any business relocating from an EU Country to here.
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by erol »

PoshinDevon wrote:Copied from elsewhere......some with more time on their hands will probably be able to disprove or rip the post to shreds.
No time needed, this 'list' has been debunked already many times but is still doing the rounds I see.

http://ilovetheeu.co.uk/trade/no-the-eu ... of-the-uk/
PoshinDevon wrote: However if even a quarter is true, it’s food for thought.
And if the very premise itself is false ? The premise seems to be that any loss of business activity in the UK whilst it has been in the EU must be the fault of the EU and no need to look at how many businesses have grown and thrived in the UK in the years it has been in the EU to ask is that the result of being in the EU ?
Name me one major technology company still running in the UK.
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by PoshinDevon »

Like I said Erol, I just read it and then copied and posted.

I was in no doubt that you would be the first one to quickly come back with something to disprove all or some of what was written.

To be honest I have nearly given up with the Brexit discussions as there is so much “guff” out there with every so called fact being contradicted by someone else’s so called fact. It’s made all the better if the contradiction was written by some lawyer or so called knowledgeable person who believes they know better.

Brexit is now such a divisive mess and in my opinion has done more long term damage to our once well respected democratic government. Politics and politicians are reaching an all time low and the country itself is being let down badly.

Que sera sera
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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PoshinDevon wrote:Brexit is now such a divisive mess and in my opinion has done more long term damage to our once well respected democratic government. Politics and politicians are reaching an all time low and the country itself is being let down badly.
I agree.

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by waz-24-7 »

PoshinDevon wrote:Copied from elsewhere......some with more time on their hands will probably be able to disprove or rip the post to shreds. However if even a quarter is true, it’s food for thought.


JUST TO LET THE REMAINERS, know,exactly what thes EU,has cost Britain in lost businesses,over 43 Years.of membership.
Terry’s (Chocolate Oranges) moved to Poland 2005.
Cadbury moved factory to Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved to Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover has recently agreed to build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, the same company who have trashed our steel works and emptied the workers pension funds.

Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
Dyson gone to Malaysia, with an EU loan.
Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone to Poland with EU grant, once employed 1,200.

M&S manufacturing gone to far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys and models now gone from UK along with the patents all with with EU grants.
Gillette gone to eastern Europe with EU grant.
Texas Instruments Greenock gone to Germany with EU grant.
Indesit at Bodelwyddan Wales gone with EU grant.
Sekisui Alveo said production at its Merthyr Tydfil Industrial Parkafoam plant will relocate production to Roermond in the Netherlands, with EU funding.

Hoover Merthyr factory moved out of UK to Czech Republic and the Far East by Italian company Candy with EU backing.
ICI integration into Holland’s AkzoNobel with EU bank loan and within days of the merger, several factories in the UK, were closed, eliminating 3,500 jobs

Boots sold to Italians Stefano Pessina who have based their HQ in Switzerland to avoid tax to the tune of £80 million a year, using an EU loan for the purchase.
JDS Uniphase run by two Dutch men, bought up companies in the UK with £20 million in EU 'regeneration' grants, created a pollution nightmare and just closed it all down leaving 1,200 out of work and an environmental clean-up paid for by the UK tax-payer. They also raided the pension fund and drained it dry.

UK airports are owned by a Spanish company.
Scottish Power is owned by a Spanish company.
Most London buses are run by Spanish and German companies.
The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station to be built by French company EDF, part owned by the French government, using cheap Chinese steel that has catastrophically failed in other nuclear installations. Now EDF say the costs will be double or more and it will be very late even if it does come online.

Swindon was once our producer of rail locomotives and rolling stock. Not any more, it's Bombardier in Derby and due to their losses in the aviation market, that could see the end of the British railways manufacturing altogether even though Bombardier had EU grants to keep Derby going which they diverted to their loss-making aviation side in Canada.
39% of British invention patents have been passed to foreign companies, many of them in the EU

The Mini cars that Cameron stood in front of as an example of British engineering, are built by BMW mostly in Holland and Austria. His campaign bus was made in Germany even though we have Plaxton, Optare, Bluebird, Dennis etc., in the UK. The bicycle for the Greens was made in the far east, not by Raleigh UK but then they are probably going to move to the Netherlands too as they have said recently.

Anyone who thinks the EU is good for British industry or any other business simply hasn't paid attention to what has been systematically asset-stripped from the UK. Name me one major technology company still running in the UK.
I haven't detailed our non-existent fishing industry the EU paid to destroy, nor the farmers being paid NOT to produce food they could sell for more than they get paid to do nothing, don't even go there.

I haven't mentioned what it costs us to be asset-stripped like this, nor have I mentioned immigration, nor the risk to our security if control of our armed forces is passed to Brussels or Germany.

Find something that's gone the other way,moved from an EU Country to here, I've looked and searched and I just can't find any business relocating from an EU Country to here.

I'm afraid this is the nature of global trade, world economy competitiveness and the drive to efficiency and profit.
These businesses have deserted the UK to secure a competitive edge . The UK has many businesses that remain in the UK as a secure trading platform due to the open market gateway into Europe.
If the gate way is hindered or even closed then expect more desertions. Just as the UK allegedly wants to divorce itself from the Union.

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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erol wrote:
PoshinDevon wrote:Brexit is now such a divisive mess and in my opinion has done more long term damage to our once well respected democratic government. Politics and politicians are reaching an all time low and the country itself is being let down badly.
I agree.
I agree also. I think most people do too.

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by PoshinDevon »

Watched live the PMs statement to the house this afternoon re delaying the vote on Brexit deal.

Whilst I am not that keen on Theresa May nor her so called deal, she is one tough old bird who is in very difficult and some say impossible position. Seeing her in action for the last two hours making a statement and then taking questions I have to admire her fortitude. Thinking on her feet, remaining calm and composed despite some of the very disparaging comments, aka Mr Skinner and others would have wilted lesser mortals. Some of those questioning her are real barmpots and it really is like watching The Muppett Show.

Whether you agree with her or not she is nothing if not determined and has repeated over and over that the referendum carried out in June 2016 and the result to leave the E.U. must be respected.

It is now really about the Northern Ireland backstop....she needs to get more concessions on this - not return from the E.U. with some vague promises. Even then it may not be enough to secure a majority. If there is no majority who knows what will happen, election.....although Corbyn and the SNP plus other smaller parties talk about it, there hasn’t been a no confidence motion. A vote of no confidence in the PM....... at present not enough letters submitted and maybe they are holding out until Theresa May returns from her meetings with the E.U. and reports back. One thing is pretty certain is that it is very unlikely the U.K. will leave with no deal. MPs on all sides would not allow it.

Sad I know but seeing government in action and the procedure and process being carried out, I admit I am quite enjoying it all.
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by Mowgli597 »

PoshinDevon wrote:Whether you agree with her or not she is nothing if not determined and has repeated over and over that the referendum carried out in June 2016 and the result to leave the E.U. must be respected.
Didn’t she also say over and over again that the vote would not be postponed?

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Post by turtle »

The only way she will come back with anything from the EU is if she increases the £39b by another 20 or so or maybe go armed with a few brown envelopes...seems like this is the only language they deal in over there.

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Post by Mowgli597 »

turtle wrote:The only way she will come back with anything from the EU is if she increases the £39b by another 20 or so or maybe go armed with a few brown envelopes...seems like this is the only language they deal in over there.
Or maybe they’ll just insist that the U.K. sticks to the agreement it signed up to regarding the N. Ireland backstop? Or will it be Perfidious Albion all over again?

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Post by PoshinDevon »

FWIW I don’t think she will bring enough back from the E.U. to help her when this shambles goes to a vote.

If she doesn’t get the legalise right instead of vague guarantees about the NI backstop then she will have nothing to convince MPs that they should vote for the deal. As for the E.U. they dare not move, plenty of other member states watching this with interest. Poland, Hungary, Greece and Italy to name but four.

For once I am enjoying following the developments, who knows how this will all pan out.
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by waz-24-7 »

A disappointing development indeed. £ sterling has taken an expected plunge and the markets are well down as a consequence of drawn out uncertainty.

The level of damage to our Economy only be guessed at right now. The political damage to the UK is clear and seems unlikely to end anytime soon.
The EU has ratified a reversal of article 50 should the UK people decide to review the position.
The Labour party are poised to capitalize on a severely weakened conservative government.
In my view the politics of the UK is at an all time low. I am absolutely shocked and amazed how some hardline BREXITEERS continue to paint a glossy everything will be fine picture. This is why so many ordinary citizens have become more enlightened and possibly Mrs May will come forth with another referendum. Its an option given she has her back against the wall.

Posh the on looking "four" is of no consequence unless of course you support a return to good old days of pre EU war mongering Europe.

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by PoshinDevon »

waz-24-7 wrote:A disappointing development indeed. £ sterling has taken an expected plunge and the markets are well down as a consequence of drawn out uncertainty.

The level of damage to our Economy only be guessed at right now. The political damage to the UK is clear and seems unlikely to end anytime soon.
The EU has ratified a reversal of article 50 should the UK people decide to review the position.
The Labour party are poised to capitalize on a severely weakened conservative government.
In my view the politics of the UK is at an all time low. I am absolutely shocked and amazed how some hardline BREXITEERS continue to paint a glossy everything will be fine picture. This is why so many ordinary citizens have become more enlightened and possibly Mrs May will come forth with another referendum. Its an option given she has her back against the wall.

Posh the on looking "four" is of no consequence unless of course you support a return to good old days of pre EU war mongering Europe.

Waz....Please stop with your references to pre EU war mongering Europe.

The E.U. has not prevented wars.

My only reason for referencing the four E.U. member states was to highlight that they are, like the U.K. not happy with the E.U. and are watching with interest. Hence the E.U. cannot and likely will not give the PM any further guarantees or changes to the NI backstop. Add to this the chaos in France plus unrest with Merkel I believe I can safely say the E.U. is not a happy club......as we would say in football, there is unrest in the dressing room.

I see no point in going over old ground already covered as we all know our positions on Brexit and they are unlikely to change. I am now just enjoying the debates, questioning and seeing how this may all pan out.

Unless there is another referendum, at the moment I cannot influence things.
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Mowgli597 wrote:
turtle wrote:The only way she will come back with anything from the EU is if she increases the £39b by another 20 or so or maybe go armed with a few brown envelopes...seems like this is the only language they deal in over there.
Or maybe they’ll just insist that the U.K. sticks to the agreement it signed up to regarding the N. Ireland backstop? Or will it be Perfidious Albion all over again?
But the deal negotiated by remain backing Civil servents and signed by Mrs May is not the deal that the UK parliament, Northern Ireland and the British People will accept. Or are you saying we should eat whatever is served up ?

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Post by PoshinDevon »

An alternative view of Brexit and the U.K. from Italy..... just one of a few EU member states who are not happy.

https://youtu.be/i9cLwoTkWes
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From a BBC article....

European Commission President Jean-Claude juncker said the EU would not "renegotiate" the deal but there was room for "further clarifications".

The prime minister is understood to be seeking legal guarantees that the UK will not be trapped in the Northern Ireland backstop plan indefinitely.

Surly you would have thought this would have been sorted when negotiating ?

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Legal guarantees won’t happen. The draft agreement has been signed off by member states so cannot be changed without going back to them again.

Clarification, whatever that is will not be legally binding so at present I cannot see it making much difference. The DUP would want it things enshrined in legality to ensure that the EU could not shaft the U.K.

Agree that clarification backed up by legally binding agreement should have been in place beforehand and not done vague references that the NI backstop would not be implemented. PM has to come back with something that will convince MPs to vote for the deal and at present that looks unlikely.
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PoshinDevon wrote:
waz-24-7 wrote:A disappointing development indeed. £ sterling has taken an expected plunge and the markets are well down as a consequence of drawn out uncertainty.

The level of damage to our Economy only be guessed at right now. The political damage to the UK is clear and seems unlikely to end anytime soon.
The EU has ratified a reversal of article 50 should the UK people decide to review the position.
The Labour party are poised to capitalize on a severely weakened conservative government.
In my view the politics of the UK is at an all time low. I am absolutely shocked and amazed how some hardline BREXITEERS continue to paint a glossy everything will be fine picture. This is why so many ordinary citizens have become more enlightened and possibly Mrs May will come forth with another referendum. Its an option given she has her back against the wall.

Posh the on looking "four" is of no consequence unless of course you support a return to good old days of pre EU war mongering Europe.

Waz....Please stop with your references to pre EU war mongering Europe.

The E.U. has not prevented wars.

My only reason for referencing the four E.U. member states was to highlight that they are, like the U.K. not happy with the E.U. and are watching with interest. Hence the E.U. cannot and likely will not give the PM any further guarantees or changes to the NI backstop. Add to this the chaos in France plus unrest with Merkel I believe I can safely say the E.U. is not a happy club......as we would say in football, there is unrest in the dressing room.

I see no point in going over old ground already covered as we all know our positions on Brexit and they are unlikely to change. I am now just enjoying the debates, questioning and seeing how this may all pan out.

Unless there is another referendum, at the moment I cannot influence things.

Posh I beg to differ upon the Unions ability to maintain and support PEACE IN EUROPE.
I believe that most Europeans will support the notion that inter member co operation and support for peace is unified and strong.
If you look at Europe pre UNION then it is historically very clear that war and strife has caused immeasurable loss.
Peace at home, Peace in Europe and Peace in the World, Unions are proven to support and promote PEACE.

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I beg to differ as well Waz.

The E.U. IMO does not prevent wars. There was a conflict lasting a few years in what is now classed as Europe which was not stopped or prevented by the EU. The Balkans War..Bosnia Herzegovina, Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats plus Muslims and a sprinkling of others from Kosovo, Montenegro and Albania.

Whilst these states/countries may not have been E.U. members at the time the conflict was on the E.U. doorstep.

There isn’t an E.U. army - yet!
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So the minority extremists in the ERG have failed once more. They want May gone and they failed to remove her. Do any / enough of them want her gone enough to risk a general election and support a commons vote of no confidence in the government I wonder ? They needed 158 Tory MP's to get rid of her. They only need 8 or so if they are willing to risk a general election and May is true to her word and will not stand in such.

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Erol,

Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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PoshinDevon wrote:Erol,

Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.
Don’t they? They voted for Brexit

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Erol, as you consider ERG extremists how would you categorise Momentum?

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EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Erol, as you consider ERG extremists how would you categorise Momentum?
On the spectrum of opinions on the UK's relationship to the EU that ranges from at one extreme of 'remain in as the only acceptable option' through to 'no deal crash out exit', they are at the extreme end of the spectrum - hence the label 'extremists'. The label may not suit your world view but to me it is perfectly valid. My point is they have huff and puff and threatened and bluffed for two years now and their bluff's have been called and they have nothing. The only option left for them now if they wish to unseat May, would be to support a vote of no confidence in the Government.

As for my views on momentum, that is off topic re this thread. If you want to start another topic on that subject I would be happy to comment there.

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erol wrote:
On the spectrum of opinions on the UK's relationship to the EU that ranges from at one extreme of 'remain in as the only acceptable option' through to 'no deal crash out exit', they are at the extreme end of the spectrum - hence the label 'extremists'. The label may not suit your world view but to me it is perfectly valid.
Didn't expect you to answer on Momentum although a simple yes or no I don't think would have taken us too far off topic. I guess if you have to bury your answer in three pages of rhetoric then that might.

So basically if one side doesn't want to remain in Brexit or to exit the EU on pretty much the same conditions as being in it that is extremist?
Bit like if someone doesn't buy into the whole climate change bit they are a denier? So we can lump the climate change "skeptics" [another label] in with holocaust deniers and take the moral high ground?
If you want out of the EU we tried lumping you as racists and that was counter productive so we are using extremists now?
It's all about branding I guess. Bit like the Momentum kids producing the same old nonsense and relabelling it, like this time it might work.

So would a vegetarian be an extremist as they have a firmly entrenched opinion which is not the majority view?
Or is it just people whose opinions don't match yours?

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EnjoyingTheSun wrote:If you want out of the EU we tried lumping you as racists and that was counter productive so we are using extremists now?
It's all about branding I guess.
It’s funny but I thought that when I started reading about “Project Fear”!

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EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Didn't expect you to answer on Momentum although a simple yes or no I don't think would have taken us too far off topic. I guess if you have to bury your answer in three pages of rhetoric then that might.
Or maybe I just see the questions as a distraction, used as a tactic to divert discussion away the things you do not want to address and deal with.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:So basically if one side doesn't want to remain in Brexit or to exit the EU on pretty much the same conditions as being in it that is extremist?
For me it is just a fact that the ERG are at one extreme end of the spectrum of opinion re the EU. I understand you do not like this reality being pointed out and will try and spin this reality. Like trying to claim choosing to be in the customs union is the same as being in the EU which to me is patently nonsense.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Bit like if someone doesn't buy into the whole climate change bit they are a denier? So we can lump the climate change "skeptics" [another label] in with holocaust deniers and take the moral high ground?
If you want out of the EU we tried lumping you as racists and that was counter productive so we are using extremists now?
It's all about branding I guess. Bit like the Momentum kids producing the same old nonsense and relabelling it, like this time it might work.
Just more distraction from where I am sitting. You talk about the electorate 'voting for the person with the nicest hair' and then take offence if anyone dares to suggest that people did not really understand the full consequences at the time they voted leave.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:So would a vegetarian be an extremist as they have a firmly entrenched opinion which is not the majority view?
Or is it just people whose opinions don't match yours?
Vegans not vegetarians would be at the extreme end of the spectrum of opinion in terms of what we eat. Yet more distraction.

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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erol wrote:
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Didn't expect you to answer on Momentum although a simple yes or no I don't think would have taken us too far off topic. I guess if you have to bury your answer in three pages of rhetoric then that might.
Or maybe I just see the questions as a distraction, used as a tactic to divert discussion away the things you do not want to address and deal with.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:So basically if one side doesn't want to remain in Brexit or to exit the EU on pretty much the same conditions as being in it that is extremist?
For me it is just a fact that the ERG are at one extreme end of the spectrum of opinion re the EU. I understand you do not like this reality being pointed out and will try and spin this reality. Like trying to claim choosing to be in the customs union is the same as being in the EU which to me is patently nonsense.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Bit like if someone doesn't buy into the whole climate change bit they are a denier? So we can lump the climate change "skeptics" [another label] in with holocaust deniers and take the moral high ground?
If you want out of the EU we tried lumping you as racists and that was counter productive so we are using extremists now?
It's all about branding I guess. Bit like the Momentum kids producing the same old nonsense and relabelling it, like this time it might work.
Just more distraction from where I am sitting. You talk about the electorate 'voting for the person with the nicest hair' and then take offence if anyone dares to suggest that people did not really understand the full consequences at the time they voted leave.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:So would a vegetarian be an extremist as they have a firmly entrenched opinion which is not the majority view?
Or is it just people whose opinions don't match yours?
Vegans not vegetarians would be at the extreme end of the spectrum of opinion in terms of what we eat. Yet more distraction.
Ok vegans are extremist, anyone who has any pride in their country is a nationalist etc etc.
It amazes me that those on the left who will take offence, usually on someone else who doesn’t care’s behalf, at any innocent phrase will use as much emotive language as they feel they can get away with.
How far do we go with this, if you like steak well done you are extremist?
I have given up understanding your definition of a hypocrite but this one is a corker

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Just to be clear here are we talking about Extreme or Extremists...There is a difference.

I just read that Hammond has made a grovelling apology to the MP's he labelled Extremists so are we now saying it's ok to hold extreme (either end) of the argument ?

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turtle wrote:Just to be clear here are we talking about Extreme or Extremists...There is a difference.
That the ERG are at the extreme end of opinion (on brexit) is just a fact. What makes them extremists is the means they have and are using to try and achieve their (minority) form of brexit - the threats, the calls of no confidence etc etc. Just as vegans are at the extreme end of opinion and those vegans that go in to restaurants and shout 'murders' would be extremists.

I understand that you and the likes of the ERG have a narrative that any thing other than a complete separation from the EU in every regard is a 'betrayal' of the 'will of the people' but it is not a narrative that I accept as valid. There are (and I would suggest many) moderate supporters of brexit that are more than willing to compromise on issues like remaining in some for of customs union. Moderate tory supporters of brexit that would not see tearing their party apart and risking the economic prosperity of the UK as valid means of securing their own particular form of brexit. The ERG are not this kind of 'leaver' - they are a much more extreme and extremists kind of leaver.

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So just to clarify... the vote was either leave or stay...if you voted to leave you are an extremist and if you are Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve you are a sensible well balanced chap who vote the correct way ?

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turtle wrote:So just to clarify... the vote was either leave or stay...if you voted to leave you are an extremist and if you are Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve you are a sensible well balanced chap who vote the correct way ?
The vote was to leave the EU. It was not a vote to leave acrimoniously, renege on our legal financial commitments already made, place a hard border between NI and the RoI, to cut of our nose in spite of our face in the name of dogma, to mess up the lives of UK citizens living in EU countries and EU citizens living in the UK and all regardless of any damage done to ourselves, the EU or the wider global economy. Those that claim the vote was these things are indeed the very definition of 'extremists' in my view. In my view none of these things was the expressed 'will of the people' two years ago and the more the extreme and extremist leavers try and make out they were what the people voted for in 2016 the more they show their contempt for the genuine will of the people. I am not drinking your cool aid and neither is parliament or in my opinion the majority of the British people either.

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EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
It's all about branding I guess. Bit like the Momentum kids producing the same old nonsense and relabelling it, like this time it might be acceptable
Like a second referendum being relabelled The Peoples Vote.

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kerry 6138 wrote:
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
It's all about branding I guess. Bit like the Momentum kids producing the same old nonsense and relabelling it, like this time it might be acceptable
Like a second referendum being relabelled The Peoples Vote.
Or relabelling rolling back environmental, food standards and works rights legislation as 'taking back control' ?

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erol wrote:
turtle wrote:So just to clarify... the vote was either leave or stay...if you voted to leave you are an extremist and if you are Anna Soubry or Dominic Grieve you are a sensible well balanced chap who vote the correct way ?
The vote was to leave the EU. It was not a vote to leave acrimoniously, renege on our legal financial commitments already made, place a hard border between NI and the RoI, to cut of our nose in spite of our face in the name of dogma, to mess up the lives of UK citizens living in EU countries and EU citizens living in the UK and all regardless of any damage done to ourselves, the EU or the wider global economy. Those that claim the vote was these things are indeed the very definition of 'extremists' in my view. In my view none of these things was the expressed 'will of the people' two years ago and the more the extreme and extremist leavers try and make out they were what the people voted for in 2016 the more they show their contempt for the genuine will of the people. I am not drinking your cool aid and neither is parliament or in my opinion the majority of the British people either.
You mention that the ERG are extremists as they pushed for a confidence vote in the Government so I take it Corbyn and his rabble of SNP’s and Libdems are also extremists for plotting the downfall of the government with a no confidence vote on the horizon ?

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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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erol wrote:
kerry 6138 wrote:
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
It's all about branding I guess. Bit like the Momentum kids producing the same old nonsense and relabelling it, like this time it might be acceptable
Like a second referendum being relabelled The Peoples Vote.
Or relabelling rolling back environmental, food standards and works rights legislation as 'taking back control' ?
If a UK government roll back any of the above, they will be held to account at a meaningful election.
EU membership didn't stop the roll out of zero hour contracts a backward step in workers rights in my opinion.

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This has been copied and pasted fromFB. I have not researched or verified it’s accuracy and it’s posted for information and to stimulate debate or to be out there and proved to be a load of hogwash......
No idea if this is an accurate and well researched piece of work, so will share and maybe others can comment.

If it is accurate then it is very alarming. Maybe the Known Outcomes list is easier to verify or disprove. Read on.....


We have had the worst-case scenario for leaving the EU given to us by numerous outlets ranging from the Bank of England to the spoiled prepubescent acting momentum supporter and everyone in-between.
So, I am now going to tell you the worst-case scenario of remaining in the EU based on actual known factors and figures, sourced from the public records of the UK Government, the EU Parliament, The Bank of England, the CBI, Migration watch, The Stock exchanges around the world, the IMF, and the UN.
So those of you who think that this little rant is a tin foil hat moment by myself think again and go and fully research and cross reference what I am about to tell you and remember this is worst-case scenario that could happen unless I clearly point out where it will happen by either a date or other factor.

KNOWN OUTCOMES THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN AGREED AS TRUE BY ALL SIDES:

1: The UK along with all existing members of the EU lose their abstention veto in 2020 as laid down in the Lisbon Treaty when the system changes to that of majority acceptance with no abstentions or veto’s being allowed.
2: All member nations will become states of the new federal nation of the EU by 2022 as clearly laid out in the Lisbon treaty with no exceptions or veto’s.
3: All member states must adopt the Euro by 2022 and any new member state must do so within 2 years of joining the EU as laid down in the Lisbon treaty.
4: The London stock exchange will move to Frankfurt in 2020 and be integrated into the EU stock exchange resulting in a loss of 200,000 plus jobs in the UK because of the relocation. This has already been pre-agreed and is only on a holding pattern due to the Brexit negotiations, which if Brexit does happen the move is fully cancelled but if not and the UK remains a member it’s full steam ahead for the move.
5: The EU Parliament and ECJ become supreme over all legislative bodies of the UK.
6: The UK will adopt 100% of whatever the EU Parliament and ECJ lays down without any means of abstention or veto, negating the need for the UK to have the Lords or even the Commons as we know it today.
7: The UK will NOT be able to make its own trade deals.
8: The UK will NOT be able to set its own trade tariffs.
9 The UK will NOT be able to set its own trade quotas.
10: The UK loses control of its fishing rights
11: The UK loses control of its oil and gas rights
12: The UK loses control of its borders and enters the Schengen region by 2022 as clearly laid down in the Lisbon treaty
13: The UK loses control of its planning legislation
14: The UK loses control of its armed forces including its nuclear deterrent
15: The UK loses full control of its taxation policy
16: The UK loses the ability to create its own laws and to implement them
17: The UK loses its standing in the Commonwealth
18: The UK loses control of any provinces or affiliated nations e.g.; Falklands, Cayman Islands, Gibraltar ect
19: The UK loses control of its judicial system
20: The UK loses control of its international policy
21: The UK loses full control of its national policy
22: The UK loses its right to call itself a nation in its own right.
23: The UK loses control of its space exploration program
24: The UK loses control of its Aviation and Sea lane jurisdiction
25: The UK loses its rebate in 2020 as laid down in the Lisbon treaty
26: The UK’s contribution to the EU is set to increase by an average of 1.2bn pa and by 2.3bn pa by 2020

PROBABLE WORST-CASE OUTCOMES

1: The UK will become nothing more than a vassal protectorate state
2: With the continuation of freedom of movement, the population of the UK will continue to grow at a rate higher than pre-referendum level ranging between 400,000 to 675,000 per annum.
2.1; Which will result in not just wage suppression but even wage depression.
2.2; More than 500,000 new homes to be built annually (We are currently only managing 125,000)
2.3; House prices and rents will skyrocket annually by 23%
2.4; Class sizes in schools would have to increase by 50% if not even double
2.5; The NHS will become solely an emergency service of care provider as they would no longer be able to cope with the numbers of people needing care other than those of emergency.
2.6; GP’s will become triage centres
2.7; Public transport will become permit holders use only
2.8; Only those that did a serious crime namely murder will be given a custodial sentence
2.9; The Court system becomes fully overrun to the point extreme cases only being heard and the rest being given an automatic fine
2.10; Emergency services collapsing for not being able to cope with the scale of things
2.11; Social care becoming solely private social care for those who can afford it.
2.12; Homelessness to increase by over 28% annually
2.13; Unemployment to increase annually by 37%
2.14; The Benefit system to collapse fully to the point of the return of soup kitchens and even workhouse existence
2.15; Crime to increase by over 59% annually
2.16; Shanty towns to become the norm standard of housing
3: Because the UK would no longer be able to make its own trade deals, nor control its tariffs or quotas, Food prices would increase by over 25% and the cost of living would go up by over 39%
4: Because the UK would lose its oil and gas rights it would also lose the revenue from taxation on them, resulting in a loss of over 600 billion per year in taxation revenue
5: Because the UK will become a member state its percentage share of the vote on any new laws, regulations, treaties and everything else is at current member numbers 3.57% of the vote. That’s right folks the UK say in the EU if it was to remain a member is 3.57% total
Everything I have put thus far is just the very extreme tip of the iceberg that is ready to sink the UK if we remain a member of the EU.
Everything is verifiable by the sources I have already outlined above and is something the EU propaganda machine as well as our very own government are not telling you.
Remainers keep on bleating about that the people didn’t know all of the facts
If that’s the case then why are they failing to tell the people the downside or remaining a member of the EU.
ASK YOURSELVES THAT FACT AND FIND OUT THE TRUE HARD FACTS FOR YOURSELF
Life is not about waiting for the storm to pass,it's about learning to dance in the rain

Peterborough Utd -The Posh

Mowgli597
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by Mowgli597 »

One response to the above (from https://not606.com/threads/which-way-forward-with-brexit-poll.369866/page-3

Wow, that's a hell of a list, who dreamed that lot up, I haven't got time to go through it all but it should be noted that the UK agreed a "Special status deal" with the EU in early 2016 which addresses the first few "Known outcomes" above. A short part of which is copied below...

Recalling in particular that the United Kingdom is entitled under the Treaties:

- not to adopt the euro and therefore to keep the British pound sterling as its currency (Protocol No 15),

- not to participate in the Schengen acquis (Protocol No 19),

- to exercise border controls on persons, and therefore not to participate in the Schengen area as regards internal and external borders (Protocol No 20),

- to choose whether or not to participate in measures in the area of freedom, security and justice (Protocol No 21),

- to cease to apply as from 1 December 2014 a large majority of Union acts and provisions in the field of police cooperation and judicial cooperation in criminal matters adopted before the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty while choosing to continue to participate in 35 of them (Article 10(4) and (5) of Protocol No 36),

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Keithcaley
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by Keithcaley »

This is a load of Sh1te copied and pasted from Facebook.
Rule 1: Do not believe anything that is posted on Facebook.
Rule 2: Verify every single fact before passing it on, because no matter how bizarre it seems, some loon will believe it and pass it on to others
I've stopped looking at Facebook because of the utter rubbish that is mindlessly circulated without being checked.
If it's also going to be posted on here, I may as well unplug my computer and stop looking at Kibkom...

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PoshinDevon
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Re: DEAL or NO DEAL on Brexit

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Post by PoshinDevon »

Thanks for your comments...it’s good to have clarification or not as the case may be.

Keith.....I only posted to stimulate debate, make people think, react or get some contributions to the topic. Never said it was correct and as I said at the top of the post I have no idea if its true or accurate. There is so much brown stuff out there...

Seems like you reacted which is good for hits on the forum.
Life is not about waiting for the storm to pass,it's about learning to dance in the rain

Peterborough Utd -The Posh

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