Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by PoshinDevon »

Waz

Of course you beg to differ. You want to remain in the EU, I would like to leave.

The U.K. is leaving the EU.

The terms and conditions are being debated and we all await the final outcome which at present none of us know what that will be. I watch with great interest how things will develop but see no reason to get all excited and uptight about things that to date have not been decided or confirmed.

As for passports I have no issue with holding a UK passport. If it means joining a different queue when travelling abroad and passing thro immigration so be it. I am English, British and a citizen of the United Kingdom.

I am realistic to know it won’t all be plain sailing, but I am looking forward positively whereas your posts are all about doom and gloom.
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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by waz-24-7 »

turtle wrote:Give it a rest waz....i think it's clear enough now that you and people on this tread with your views are not interested in the EU dream you are only interested in protecting your own personal situation and its clear to me that you have some business to lose when we leave so you are trying to protect your own pocket and stuff the bigger picture....your bleating is getting very tedious.
Turtle
The debate goes on . You must be aware of the current and active debate that is taking place within parliament, backrooms, in Brussels etc.
You are not forced into posting at all. I do not think for a single moment that you are able to speak for others. Furthermore you have absolutely no understanding of my personal reasons for being pro UK and indeed Pro European besides of course matters that I have highlighted in posts.

It is your own more recent posts that appear devoid of debatable content and that are rather tedious.
That being said if you wish to debate the very much ongoing differing positions regarding BREXIT then please do participate.
Given the fact that the UK is currently within the EU and new dimensions emerge as our government negotiates a deal. Those with a real interest will certainly follow developments.
Those that do not comprehend and or care much resign to "we are leaving" "wait and see" I didn't put you down as one of these.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by waz-24-7 »

PoshinDevon wrote:Waz

Of course you beg to differ. You want to remain in the EU, I would like to leave.

The U.K. is leaving the EU.

The terms and conditions are being debated and we all await the final outcome which at present none of us know what that will be. I watch with great interest how things will develop but see no reason to get all excited and uptight about things that to date have not been decided or confirmed.

As for passports I have no issue with holding a UK passport. If it means joining a different queue when travelling abroad and passing thro immigration so be it. I am English, British and a citizen of the United Kingdom.

I am realistic to know it won’t all be plain sailing, but I am looking forward positively whereas your posts are all about doom and gloom.

Posh,
I am encouraged that you agree the debate goes on regarding the conditions of the UK departure,
You should not get up tight on things you do not know and I agree that things will not be plain sailing.

I also have no issue in holding a UK passport. My post was debating a forced forfeit of my EU passport. Is that fair and proper? and I ask. Would UK citizens wishing to retain their EU passports be allowed to. I believe there is some legal precedent over possible forced surrender of a citizens passport

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by PoshinDevon »

Waz - No idea why you think I am getting uptight. Far from it. I am consistent in saying that I acknowledge things will not be plain sailing but I know one fact for sure - the U.K. is leaving the EU.

Legal precedence for the forced surrender of an EU passport. I think you are really grasping at straws with that argument.

Reading your doom and gloom posts based on not a lot except your own guesswork is amusing. You are not debating as you often fail to answer questions except with another question or as I have mentioned in an earlier post just failing to acknowledge an alternative point of view and debate it.......... reminds me of a lot of politicians.
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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

waz-24-7 wrote:
PoshinDevon wrote:Waz

Of course you beg to differ. You want to remain in the EU, I would like to leave.

The U.K. is leaving the EU.

The terms and conditions are being debated and we all await the final outcome which at present none of us know what that will be. I watch with great interest how things will develop but see no reason to get all excited and uptight about things that to date have not been decided or confirmed.

As for passports I have no issue with holding a UK passport. If it means joining a different queue when travelling abroad and passing thro immigration so be it. I am English, British and a citizen of the United Kingdom.

I am realistic to know it won’t all be plain sailing, but I am looking forward positively whereas your posts are all about doom and gloom.

Posh,
I am encouraged that you agree the debate goes on regarding the conditions of the UK departure,
You should not get up tight on things you do not know and I agree that things will not be plain sailing.

This is another example of trolling and a true indication of your feelings about those who disagree with your point of view.

I also have no issue in holding a UK passport. My post was debating a forced forfeit of my EU passport. Is that fair and proper? and I ask. Would UK citizens wishing to retain their EU passports be allowed to. I believe there is some legal precedent over possible forced surrender of a citizens passport
I believe he protests a little too much.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by waz-24-7 »

PoshinDevon wrote:Waz - No idea why you think I am getting uptight. Far from it. I am consistent in saying that I acknowledge things will not be plain sailing but I know one fact for sure - the U.K. is leaving the EU.

Reading your doom and gloom posts based on not a lot except your own guesswork means not a lot. You are not debating as you often fail to answer questions except with another question..... reminds me of a lot of politicians.

Posh,
Very happy to respond to your questions? I see none .
perhaps you may like to oblige too. EU passport status question.
your previous posts simply reflect your "don't know" position.
I must wonder if there is so much you don't know why you elected to leave at all.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

Waz you are making yourself look a little foolish now...the EU are doing everything to not negotiate a trade deal which would damage them by the way so why would they allow little old waz keep his passport.....deluded.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by waz-24-7 »

turtle wrote:Waz you are making yourself look a little foolish now...the EU are doing everything to not negotiate a trade deal which would damage them by the way so why would they allow little old waz keep his passport.....deluded.
Turtle,
Not sure where you get the notion that the EU is not negotiating. The position has been made quite clear to date upon the customs union and single market pre requirements. The UK remains in this union currently and maintains a reasonable but under pressure economy.

Please do not think I alone am wishing to retain my EU passport. My guess there are 10s of millions within the UK and many ex pats too who have similar aspirations.
Indeed I hear that a legal case is underway in the Netherlands brought by a UK citizen. For exactly that.
I somehow suspect you failed to even consider that you currently hold an EU passport and what privileges that has awarded you.

Do you wonder why so many Turkish Cypriots have gone South to register for their EU passports. Think about it.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by PoshinDevon »

waz-24-7 wrote:
PoshinDevon wrote:Waz - No idea why you think I am getting uptight. Far from it. I am consistent in saying that I acknowledge things will not be plain sailing but I know one fact for sure - the U.K. is leaving the EU.

Reading your doom and gloom posts based on not a lot except your own guesswork means not a lot. You are not debating as you often fail to answer questions except with another question..... reminds me of a lot of politicians.

Posh,
Very happy to respond to your questions? I see none .
perhaps you may like to oblige too. EU passport status question.
your previous posts simply reflect your "don't know" position.
I must wonder if there is so much you don't know why you elected to leave at all.
Waz......trawl thro this topic and also previous topics on Brexit to which you have contributed. You will note many questions asked not only by myself but many others, to which you have not replied or just simply ignored and replied with a further question.

I am very happy that I am old enough, intelligent enough and have a reasonably good understanding of what is happening with regards to the UK leaving the EU. You are merely “trolling” and I will not rise to your bait. I wish you well with your gloomy thoughts and theories about this important subject.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll
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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by Mowgli597 »

Well I for one would like to hold on to the EU dream, and most certainly would like to hold on to my EU passport. And I would very much like the same for my children and grandchildren, especially for them to be able to move and, perhaps more importantly, work without let or hindrance in the wider EU community if they so wish.

Not having lived in the U.K. for the past 30 years I have no personal or business interest to protect. Just the future for my offspring.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by Mowgli597 »

It also seems to me (pace to some other contributors) that Waz is one of the few people in this thread who is actually addressing the main thrust of the thread’s title (whilst disregarding the political element): a HARD or a SOFT Brexit.

Other protagonists have simply reduced it to their usual argument of “You lost. We’re leaving so get over it.” “Who knows what’s going to happen,” (indeed, none of us do but isn’t that the point of REASONED debate?), and ad hominem attacks.

The U.K. Parliament will decide whether the U.K. leaves the EU (it is not a FACT yet, Posh). They are themselves discussing the terms of a Hard or Soft Brexit, and it is they, and the negotiators from the EU, who will decide the final form of that Brexit.

Meanwhile please let us discuss what it is we would like to see in those Brexit terms - but in a civilised manner.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by PoshinDevon »

Post 110 - A fair and valid point. Whilst I have no crystal ball and will like everyone have to await the detail with regards to the U.K. exit agreement I don’t believe there will be much of an issue with regards to movement between the U.K. and other EU countries. Standing in a different queue and it possibly taking longer to enter a country is acceptable to me as it will be the same for non U.K. nationals wishing to enter the U.K. As far as working/employment is concerned, whilst this will not be the “free” movement that has been experienced over a good many years I still think that work/employment will be available in the EU and vice versa, although from a U.K. perspective the influx of people coming into the U.K. looks as if it will be more controlled. As I say these are just my thoughts.

As for post 111 - I have no problem debating this subject however one fact is clear the U.K. is leaving the EU. None of us know yet what constraints or conditions will be put upon the U.K. nor do we know 100% how our exit will affect the economy, trade, immigration etc. Apart of course from Waz who posts as if they have an inside track to the negotiations and knows exactly what will happen in the future. Posts are driven primarily on which side of the fence you happen to fall. As far as Waz’s posts are concerned on this thread and other Brexit threads all I am seeing is in the main a non answering or ignoring of a point presented by someone who has a different viewpoint or the answering of a question with yet another question.....in typical political fashions. I am also seeing a fair amount of hypothetical scenarios which in the main appear to be based on worst case scenario, doom and gloom. Then of course there are the odd comments which appear to suggest that all those who wish to leave the EU are somehow less intelligent. It is all so tedious and I believe many comments are just “trolling” looking for a response or reaction.

The thread title Labour for soft, Conservative for hard Brexit this is a very generalist statement. From what I am viewing and reading especially from the Conservative side is that there seems to be some areas that the U.K. will be hard on, for example the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. However; there also appears to be a lot of softening in other areas, which will not appeal to many of those who voted leave.

My reasons for wanting to leave the EU are already documented. I am aware it will not be an easy ride however I believe it’s the right decision for the U.K. I have tried to take a balanced view in understanding Brexit and the best article I have found is the one I posted in my my post number 94. It may not appeal to the more hard line leave or remainers but I think it’s a good read. Now the decision has been made I would rather look forward optimistically to the future than think the country is doomed. As for a hard or soft Brexit, time will tell but one thing is certain it will not satisfy all those who voted leave, nor will it satisfy those who voted remain.
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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

Mowgli597 wrote:Well I for one would like to hold on to the EU dream, and most certainly would like to hold on to my EU passport. And I would very much like the same for my children and grandchildren, especially for them to be able to move and, perhaps more importantly, work without let or hindrance in the wider EU community if they so wish.

Not having lived in the U.K. for the past 30 years I have no personal or business interest to protect. Just the future for my offspring.
Mowgli I share your sentiment about our children and grandchildren however My view is the EU have little interest in youth employment which shows with a worrying average youth unemployment running at around 20% in the EU.. only the UK is bucking this trend and I feel that my grandkids fair a better chance being away from this youth failing policy (waz however feels this kind of stat is irrelevant in this debate ?)as for the holding your EU passport surely if they allow a few million Brits to keep theirs then 500million Europeans will be allowed to use theirs here in the UK something that the EU will not allow unless we sign up to the insane free movement of people policy they have in place.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by erol »

turtle wrote:My view is the EU have little interest in youth employment which shows with a worrying average youth unemployment running at around 20% in the EU.. only the UK is bucking this trend
The UK's youth unemployment levels are below the EU average but to claim that only the UK is bucking this trend seems incorrect to me ? Germany's youth unemployment is about half the UK's for example with 10 EU member states all having lower figures than the UK, at least according to this source for 2018

https://www.statista.com/statistics/266 ... countries/

As far as trend over time goes here are figures from same source for 2015. Pretty much falls across the board.

https://www.statista.com/chart/3644/you ... in-europe/

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

waz-24-7 wrote:
turtle wrote:Give it a rest waz....i think it's clear enough now that you and people on this tread with your views are not interested in the EU dream you are only interested in protecting your own personal situation and its clear to me that you have some business to lose when we leave so you are trying to protect your own pocket and stuff the bigger picture....your bleating is getting very tedious.
Turtle
The debate goes on . You must be aware of the current and active debate that is taking place within parliament, backrooms, in Brussels etc.
You are not forced into posting at all. I do not think for a single moment that you are able to speak for others. Furthermore you have absolutely no understanding of my personal reasons for being pro UK and indeed Pro European besides of course matters that I have highlighted in posts.

It is your own more recent posts that appear devoid of debatable content and that are rather tedious.
That being said if you wish to debate the very much ongoing differing positions regarding BREXIT then please do participate.
Given the fact that the UK is currently within the EU and new dimensions emerge as our government negotiates a deal. Those with a real interest will certainly follow developments.
Those that do not comprehend and or care much resign to "we are leaving" "wait and see" I didn't put you down as one of these.
Waz I think most people are fully aware of debates that are going on surrounding Brexit but unlike your good self we have no idea what is being discussed or agreed as to a hard or soft Brexit ?
As for your “understanding of your personal reasons” for being Pro EU I only quote a post you made prior to the in/out vote which said that your business sells goods and services to the EU with that I take it you have a vested interest in staying within the EU and customs union to back up your somewhat protectionism statements, please accept my apologies if this is incorrect

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

erol wrote:
turtle wrote:My view is the EU have little interest in youth employment which shows with a worrying average youth unemployment running at around 20% in the EU.. only the UK is bucking this trend
The UK's youth unemployment levels are below the EU average but to claim that only the UK is bucking this trend seems incorrect to me ? Germany's youth unemployment is about half the UK's for example with 10 EU member states all having lower figures than the UK, at least according to this source for 2018

https://www.statista.com/statistics/266 ... countries/

As far as trend over time goes here are figures from same source for 2015. Pretty much falls across the board.

https://www.statista.com/chart/3644/you ... in-europe/
Lets not split hairs Erol but i did say an average ?... if you want to talk extremes then lets talk Greece 44%, Spain 36% italy 31% even Cyprus has 25% youth unemplyment... all the same not good reading ?

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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turtle wrote: Lets not split hairs Erol but i did say an average ?... if you want to talk extremes then lets talk Greece 44%, Spain 36% italy 31% even Cyprus has 25% youth unemplyment... all the same not good reading ?
I am not trying to split hairs and I am trying to understand what you were saying. Yes some countries in the EU have terrible youth unemployment figures and far worse than the UK has and others have good figures much better than the UK's. I still struggle to understand what supports the claim that only the UK is bucking the 'trend' ? For what it is worth, if I imagine that the UK had never joined the EEC in 1973 and make a guess at what the UK's figures on this might have been as a consequence, I personally think they would not be much different to what they are today. I think we would almost certainly still have better figures than Greece and worse than Germany. I also think that is more likely to be the case, than not, after we leave the EU as well.

I do understand that you believe that the UK being in the EU is hinders its ability to reduce youth unemployment in the UK. What I do not understand is why you think the fact that say Greece has a much higher level than the UK today (and had before we joined the EEC and whilst we were in the EEC / EU and no doubt will after we leave) 'proves' this ?

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by waz-24-7 »

turtle wrote:
waz-24-7 wrote:
turtle wrote:Give it a rest waz....i think it's clear enough now that you and people on this tread with your views are not interested in the EU dream you are only interested in protecting your own personal situation and its clear to me that you have some business to lose when we leave so you are trying to protect your own pocket and stuff the bigger picture....your bleating is getting very tedious.
Turtle
The debate goes on . You must be aware of the current and active debate that is taking place within parliament, backrooms, in Brussels etc.
You are not forced into posting at all. I do not think for a single moment that you are able to speak for others. Furthermore you have absolutely no understanding of my personal reasons for being pro UK and indeed Pro European besides of course matters that I have highlighted in posts.

It is your own more recent posts that appear devoid of debatable content and that are rather tedious.
That being said if you wish to debate the very much ongoing differing positions regarding BREXIT then please do participate.
Given the fact that the UK is currently within the EU and new dimensions emerge as our government negotiates a deal. Those with a real interest will certainly follow developments.
Those that do not comprehend and or care much resign to "we are leaving" "wait and see" I didn't put you down as one of these.
Waz I think most people are fully aware of debates that are going on surrounding Brexit but unlike your good self we have no idea what is being discussed or agreed as to a hard or soft Brexit ?
As for your “understanding of your personal reasons” for being Pro EU I only quote a post you made prior to the in/out vote which said that your business sells goods and services to the EU with that I take it you have a vested interest in staying within the EU and customs union to back up your somewhat protectionism statements, please accept my apologies if this is incorrect
Yes indeed Turtle,
I have a vested interest in trade with our nearest and largest trading partner. The EU. I work with Europeans every single day and the business relationship has always been very favourable. Many however are fear full of what the divorce courts will decide. I firmly believe that the importance of this relationship has been neglected and or omitted from the general publics notions. Posh for example is happy to line up at border control as a non European. I too would be happy if that was the sum of the BREXIT deal. It is NOT however.
Perhaps my understanding and take on BREXIT is at a more elevated level than many.
I continue to witness from "wrinkles" ( no offence ) who have no vested input or influence upon the UK economy who take the very simplistic view that everything may or may not be OK.
The younger 20 -30 yr olds are to carry this through. I feel for them after experiencing massive pressure from university fees, home grown housing ladder pressure plus the difficulty in finding work.

I remain of the opinion that the said "wrinklies" perhaps unwittingly have sold the us down the river. At least for the next decade.
I hope those same persons can sit with their children and or grandchildren and explain their decision, uncertainty and support them during a very difficult and uncertain future outside of Europe.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

erol wrote:
turtle wrote: Lets not split hairs Erol but i did say an average ?... if you want to talk extremes then lets talk Greece 44%, Spain 36% italy 31% even Cyprus has 25% youth unemplyment... all the same not good reading ?
I am not trying to split hairs and I am trying to understand what you were saying. Yes some countries in the EU have terrible youth unemployment figures and far worse than the UK has and others have good figures much better than the UK's. I still struggle to understand what supports the claim that only the UK is bucking the 'trend' ? For what it is worth, if I imagine that the UK had never joined the EEC in 1973 and make a guess at what the UK's figures on this might have been as a consequence, I personally think they would not be much different to what they are today. I think we would almost certainly still have better figures than Greece and worse than Germany. I also think that is more likely to be the case, than not, after we leave the EU as well.

I do understand that you believe that the UK being in the EU is hinders its ability to reduce youth unemployment in the UK. What I do not understand is why you think the fact that say Greece has a much higher level than the UK today (and had before we joined the EEC and whilst we were in the EEC / EU and no doubt will after we leave) 'proves' this ?

Erol, obviously I can’t give you figures of pre 1973 on many things you keep asking about but I think you are suggesting that we the UK on most things would be or are in the same position as we were in 1973 how can you quantify this ?
All I can do is look how the eu countries have performed over the last 20 yrs and to me a lot of area’s have performed very poorly and put these countries in financial difficulties Now surely the question should be is the EU working in their interests or against them,.. Has the Euro currency been a success or are countries struggling with not having their own currency as I said in an earlier post EU members should have no more than 60% of GDP debt but all are much higher than this (another stat that Waz says is insignificant) but the only way this debt will be reduced is through austerity is that going to happen ? figures show 90% of future global growth will be outside the EU why would we not want a slice of that cake

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by PoshinDevon »

[/quote] Yes indeed Turtle,
I have a vested interest in trade with our nearest and largest trading partner. The EU. I work with Europeans every single day and the business relationship has always been very favourable. Many however are fear full of what the divorce courts will decide. I firmly believe that the importance of this relationship has been neglected and or omitted from the general publics notions. Posh for example is happy to line up at border control as a non European. I too would be happy if that was the sum of the BREXIT deal. It is NOT however.

This is trolling for a reaction

Perhaps my understanding and take on BREXIT is at a more elevated level than many.

This is trolling and an example of how you perceive those who voted to leave

I continue to witness from "wrinkles" ( no offence ) who have no vested input or influence upon the UK economy who take the very simplistic view that everything may or may not be OK.
The younger 20 -30 yr olds are to carry this through. I feel for them after experiencing massive pressure from university fees, home grown housing ladder pressure plus the difficulty in finding work. I remain of the opinion that the said "wrinklies" perhaps unwittingly have sold the us down the river. At least for the next decade.
I hope those same persons can sit with their children and or grandchildren and explain their decision, uncertainty and support them during a very difficult and uncertain future outside of Europe.[/quote]

Young people..........
We have discussed Brexit many times with my children, their spouses and partner; who as a matter of interest all went to University, all have student debt but all are in work work and own their own property. One voted remain, one voted leave and the other two did not vote at all. They are getting on with their lives and to be honest rightly or wrongly they appear in no way overly concerned with Brexit. I admire their attitude and maybe because they are young, very busy and immersed in the now they don’t have time to worry about what may or may not happen. They seem to be of the opinion we will cross that bridge and tackle the problem if it happens.
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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by erol »

turtle wrote: Erol, obviously I can’t give you figures of pre 1973 on many things you keep asking about but I think you are suggesting that we the UK on most things would be or are in the same position as we were in 1973 how can you quantify this ?
I am increasingly of that opinion yes, though I was not before the vote. I am increasingly of that impression because the more I look, at whatever 'stat' may be concerned, be it youth unemployment or any other, and ask myself the question, what do I think that stat would be today if we had not joined the EEC in 73, or what I think that stat will be after we leave and the short term disruption is over, I am increasingly coming up with the view that the answer is 'not actually that different'.

Or to put it another way I am increasingly of the view that how well or badly the UK does, is and has been and will be only marginally influence by if we were in the EEC/EU or not compared with how we as a nation have chosen to behave regardless of in or out. I do think that the UK has the potential to thrive outside the EU but the flip side of that is I also think we have that potential inside it as well.
turtle wrote: All I can do is look how the eu countries have performed over the last 20 yrs and to me a lot of area’s have performed very poorly and put these countries in financial difficulties
I see some countries that have done well in the EU in the last 20 years and some that have done badly in that same period, which just strengths the ever increasing impression that I have that actually 'in or out' is not the primary factor determining this, or even a particularly significant factor.
turtle wrote: Now surely the question should be is the EU working in their interests or against them,..
I think that, just like with national governments' the intent is to improve things but just like national governments often what is done to achieve the aim does not achieve the aim and can even make it worse.
turtle wrote:Has the Euro currency been a success or are countries struggling with not having their own currency
I think the Euro has been a success for some members of the Euro zone, like Germany and not been good for others like Greece.
turtle wrote: figures show 90% of future global growth will be outside the EU why would we not want a slice of that cake
What I am not sure about is this idea that unless we leave the EU we can not get a slice of that cake. I think we can get a share of a slice of that cake within the EU or outside of it and how well we do will primarily be down to how we act as a nation, in or out.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

One thing is for sure though our debt in 1973 was 49% of GDP and today its 88% over 40% higher

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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turtle wrote:One thing is for sure though our debt in 1973 was 49% of GDP and today its 88% over 40% higher
No doubt you are sure that this is because we joined the EEC in 1973 and that if we had not then today it would be closer to the 49% it was back then. I on the other hand am more of the impression that the figure today would not be that different from the 88% it is today, higher or lower, if we had not joined the EU
source (https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1973_2020UKp_10c9li111lcn_G0t_UK_National_Debt_As_Pct_GDP)
source (https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1973_2020UKp_10c9li111lcn_G0t_UK_National_Debt_As_Pct_GDP)
From this graph it seems to me that the doubling of UK debt to GDP happened post 2008 and so it seems to mean the primary cause of the UK's debt to GDP doubling is less related to the UK being in the EEC / EU, because it didn't happen for the first 30 years we were in, and more a result of the global financial meltdown that occurred in 2008. Thus I think the chance that this would have happened anyway even if the UK had never joined the EEC in 1973 is pretty high.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

erol wrote:
turtle wrote:One thing is for sure though our debt in 1973 was 49% of GDP and today its 88% over 40% higher
No doubt you are sure that this is because we joined the EEC in 1973 and that if we had not then today it would be closer to the 49% it was back then. I on the other hand am more of the impression that the figure today would not be that different from the 88% it is today, higher or lower, if we had not joined the EU
debtgdp.JPG
From this graph it seems to me that the doubling of UK debt to GDP happened post 2008 and so it seems to mean the primary cause of the UK's debt to GDP doubling is less related to the UK being in the EEC / EU, because it didn't happen for the first 30 years we were in, and more a result of the global financial meltdown that occurred in 2008. Thus I think the chance that this would have happened anyway even if the UK had never joined the EEC in 1973 is pretty high.
Erol, I am not saying that its because we joined the eec in 1973 the message I am trying to get through is all countries that have joined the EU /EEC whenever they joined have not pulled any trees up as to making progress and growth your analysis of all would be the same as 1973 is a bit of a red herring as you simply have no idea that would be the case and you havn't produced any facts to convince me ?

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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turtle wrote: Erol, I am not saying that its because we joined the eec in 1973 the message I am trying to get through is all countries that have joined the EU /EEC whenever they joined have not pulled any trees up as to making progress and growth your analysis of all would be the same as 1973 is a bit of a red herring as you simply have no idea that would be the case and you havn't produced any facts to convince me ?
I am just stating what my impression is and as best I can why I am of that impression. I do not know that actually in economic terms it does not make much difference to any country if they are in the EU or not, just as you do not know that being in is 'negative' for all those that are in. From where I am sitting, me expressing my (new, changed since before the vote) impression is no more (or less) a 'red herring' than you expressing yours ? If you have produced any 'facts' that clearly show that being in has been disastrous for all those who are members, then I must have missed them. Showing that some countries who are members have had 'bad' times for some of the period they were members is not the same thing imho.

Anyway there was something Poshindevon said way back earlier in the thread that I also wanted to comment on but have not go round to before.
PoshinDevon wrote:I have always maintained that the U.K. never really embraced the European dream and has always held it at arms length becoming increasingly more frustrated at some of the rules, regulations and influences on our way of life.
I broadly agree with this assessment. It reminded me of this bit of classic British humour




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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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I am intrigued what the classic bit of humour is Erol?
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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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PoshinDevon wrote:I am intrigued what the classic bit of humour is Erol?
Now I am confused lol. Can you not see the youtube clip in my post from yes minister https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37iHSwA1SwE ) ?

Or am I missing your humour and you are able to see the clip but are 'joshing' with me by saying (deadpan without smiley) that the clip is not 'humour' but 'real' ?

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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erol wrote:
turtle wrote: Erol, I am not saying that its because we joined the eec in 1973 the message I am trying to get through is all countries that have joined the EU /EEC whenever they joined have not pulled any trees up as to making progress and growth your analysis of all would be the same as 1973 is a bit of a red herring as you simply have no idea that would be the case and you havn't produced any facts to convince me ?
I am just stating what my impression is and as best I can why I am of that impression. I do not know that actually in economic terms it does not make much difference to any country if they are in the EU or not, just as you do not know that being in is 'negative' for all those that are in. From where I am sitting, me expressing my (new, changed since before the vote) impression is no more (or less) a 'red herring' than you expressing yours ? If you have produced any 'facts' that clearly show that being in has been disastrous for all those who are members, then I must have missed them. Showing that some countries who are members have had 'bad' times for some of the period they were members is not the same thing imho.

Anyway there was something Poshindevon said way back earlier in the thread that I also wanted to comment on but have not go round to before.
PoshinDevon wrote:I have always maintained that the U.K. never really embraced the European dream and has always held it at arms length becoming increasingly more frustrated at some of the rules, regulations and influences on our way of life.
Now I am totally confused and round and round we go...you have beaten me into submission....life since 1973 has not changed one iota and being in the EU has not affected us in the slightest things are all rosy without any issues now can we move on before my head bursts.

I broadly agree with this assessment. It reminded me of this bit of classic British humour



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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

turtle wrote:
erol wrote:
turtle wrote: Erol, I am not saying that its because we joined the eec in 1973 the message I am trying to get through is all countries that have joined the EU /EEC whenever they joined have not pulled any trees up as to making progress and growth your analysis of all would be the same as 1973 is a bit of a red herring as you simply have no idea that would be the case and you havn't produced any facts to convince me ?
I am just stating what my impression is and as best I can why I am of that impression. I do not know that actually in economic terms it does not make much difference to any country if they are in the EU or not, just as you do not know that being in is 'negative' for all those that are in. From where I am sitting, me expressing my (new, changed since before the vote) impression is no more (or less) a 'red herring' than you expressing yours ? If you have produced any 'facts' that clearly show that being in has been disastrous for all those who are members, then I must have missed them. Showing that some countries who are members have had 'bad' times for some of the period they were members is not the same thing imho.

Anyway there was something Poshindevon said way back earlier in the thread that I also wanted to comment on but have not go round to before.
PoshinDevon wrote:I have always maintained that the U.K. never really embraced the European dream and has always held it at arms length becoming increasingly more frustrated at some of the rules, regulations and influences on our way of life.
Now I am totally confused and round and round we go...you have beaten me into submission....life since 1973 has not changed one iota and being in the EU has not affected us in the slightest things are all rosy without any issues now can we move on before my head bursts.

I broadly agree with this assessment. It reminded me of this bit of classic British humour


Now I am totally confused and round and round we go...you have beaten me into submission....life since 1973 has not changed one iota and being in the EU has not affected us in the slightest things are all rosy without any issues now can we move on before my head bursts.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by PoshinDevon »

erol wrote:
PoshinDevon wrote:I am intrigued what the classic bit of humour is Erol?
Now I am confused lol. Can you not see the youtube clip in my post from yes minister https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37iHSwA1SwE ) ?

Or am I missing your humour and you are able to see the clip but are 'joshing' with me by saying (deadpan without smiley) that the clip is not 'humour' but 'real' ?

yours

confused of lapta
Greetings confused of Lapta.....wasn’t joshing you. I can see the link on this post but could not see it on your earlier post.

Will watch a little later, I am sure it will be amusing.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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turtle wrote: ....life since 1973 has not changed one iota and being in the EU has not affected us in the slightest things are all rosy without any issues now can we move on before my head bursts.
That is really not what I said or am saying at all and it is kind of frustrating that you think it is.

Since 1973 (and before) there were periods when the UK was 'thriving' economically and periods when it was not thriving. Periods when things were relatively 'rosy' economically and periods when they were not. That to me is about as close to 'fact' as you can get as far as I am concerned. I am increasingly of the view that this would have been largely true to largely the same degrees of 'thriving' or 'not thriving' at largely the same time periods, independent of if we were in or out of the EU/EEC and will also be the case going forward once we leave the EU. I do no know this as fact, do not claim it is fact but I am being absolutely honest when I say this is increasingly my impression or 'belief' if you prefer.

I did not have this belief before the referendum. Before the referendum I did think that being in or out of the EU / EEC had a major and significant effect on if and when and how much the UK 'thrived' or 'did not thrive' in economic terms and thus would also in the future and that overall this impact was more positive than negative by being in. My view has changed over time. Not because my 'new belief' better supports what I want re leave or stay (it does not) but because that is how it increasingly seems to me as I have increasingly looked at a whole range of historic economic 'stats' over a range of different countries over a range of different periods.

If the vote was today I would still vote remain but I would not do so because of any belief that staying will have a major impact on if the UK is able to and does thrive economically in the future, past the inevitable short term disruption. I would still vote remain for other reasons.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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The notion that the EU has been a poor or strong economic performer with differing levels of success and or failure is not good enough reason to leave.
The grass is greener on the other side I think they say. I say the grass is greener when you take care of the grass you already have.
Developing current customers is massively easier than going out and finding new ones.
In addition locally secured business is massively easier than distance business. Logistics, transport costs customer support is so much easier when local. The EU is our trading neighbour. To divorce ourselves from local business potential is certain folly.
Friendly neighbours also work together and co operate upon security, technology, health care, transport links, education , cultural exchange. The list goes on.

Further more. I again bring up the security and peace in our time advantages of being within a Union. Europe is a union with strong and peaceful ties.
The very recent behavior of Russian intervention is a good illustration of nationalistic power hungry behavior by stand alone states.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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Like Erol.
I too would still vote remain
On the basis that we could indeed secure reform within the Union administration.
The UK would maintain and advance the current level of economic growth and maintain a strong and desirable currency.
Peace in Europe and at Home remains with certainty and cooperation across all fronts continues.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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erol wrote:
turtle wrote: ....life since 1973 has not changed one iota and being in the EU has not affected us in the slightest things are all rosy without any issues now can we move on before my head bursts.
That is really not what I said or am saying at all and it is kind of frustrating that you think it is.

Since 1973 (and before) there were periods when the UK was 'thriving' economically and periods when it was not thriving. Periods when things were relatively 'rosy' economically and periods when they were not. That to me is about as close to 'fact' as you can get as far as I am concerned. I am increasingly of the view that this would have been largely true to largely the same degrees of 'thriving' or 'not thriving' at largely the same time periods, independent of if we were in or out of the EU/EEC and will also be the case going forward once we leave the EU. I do no know this as fact, do not claim it is fact but I am being absolutely honest when I say this is increasingly my impression or 'belief' if you prefer.

I did not have this belief before the referendum. Before the referendum I did think that being in or out of the EU / EEC had a major and significant effect on if and when and how much the UK 'thrived' or 'did not thrive' in economic terms and thus would also in the future and that overall this impact was more positive than negative by being in. My view has changed over time. Not because my 'new belief' better supports what I want re leave or stay (it does not) but because that is how it increasingly seems to me as I have increasingly looked at a whole range of historic economic 'stats' over a range of different countries over a range of different periods.

If the vote was today I would still vote remain but I would not do so because of any belief that staying will have a major impact on if the UK is able to and does thrive economically in the future, past the inevitable short term disruption. I would still vote remain for other reasons.
Ok Erol... I think i get what you're saying now...the ebbs and flows of country good and not so good times are very similar to any business you or i would run or own when you budget and forcast the next 12 months business and then have to readjust after half year when things arnt going to plan good times and bad times will probably even themselves out over time but the difference is when you are in control of your own destiny then you can adjust accordingly but when your hands are somewhat tied it then becomes almost impossible to have any influence on your future .

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

waz-24-7 wrote:Like Erol.
I too would still vote remain
On the basis that we could indeed secure reform within the Union administration.
The UK would maintain and advance the current level of economic growth and maintain a strong and desirable currency.
Peace in Europe and at Home remains with certainty and cooperation across all fronts continues.
U
I think if we did vote again the results would be very similar I think the notion of any reform of the Eu in my eyes is very doubtful we have tried and failed and there has been some very strong election results that have given the Eu boneheads a very strong warning that changes need to be made but they still refuse so no I don't believe that the Eu will or can change...my guess is it will get to a point when the diehards insiders will finally get the message and by then it may be too late for the already failing business model

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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I would still vote leave. It was I admit a close decision when voting but having made the decision I am now satisfied with the choice and look forward with optimism.

We have been in the EU for 45 years and I am in no way convinced that in the future we could indeed secure the reforms within the EU administration. It’s like bashing your head against a brick wall at times and after a while it hurts.

Despite all of the Armageddon predictions of what would happen in the period since voting to leave and present date, the U.K. economy has not collapsed. There is no doubt that both sides could cherry pick examples to show the economy is either failing or thriving. There are opportunities to increase trade and economic cooperation with many of the worlds rapidly advancing economies outside the EU plus long standing partners. Whether that be the USA, Far East Asia, India, Brazil or countries such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand. In addition there is no doubt we will continue to trade with those who remain in the EU.

I am also confident that there will still be cooperation on security and terrorist threats between all countries in Europe. Just because the U.K. leaves the EU does not suddenly leave the U.K. more exposed. Our links in this area with the USA are very close and the exchange of intelligence and collaboration between us is very strong.
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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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Of Course the hard line leavers will not be convinced otherwise.
I do think however that the real coffee smell is emerging as the many brushed over topics and issues of concern and cost are becoming more clear.
Would the result stay the same in a 2nd run. I think not as people have become seriously more aware upon BREXIT.

We must be very clear that right now we are still full members with privileges and rights accordingly.
The deal must be made soon so that economic and business decisions can be made with more ease than currently. Uncertainty is very bad for business and investment.
Many many businesses are holding back upon investment decisions. Many financial jobs are on the line as Paris and Frankfurt line up their marketing stalls.
Now some things look rosy given the weakness of £. Foreign buyers are flocking in to buy UK assets. property, and businesses,

certainly negotiations are seriously underway. For sure the penalty costs to leave are far in excess of what people thought and any large nest egg post BREXIT are now dust in the wind.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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turtle wrote: Ok Erol... I think i get what you're saying now...the ebbs and flows of country good and not so good times are very similar to any business you or i would run or own when you budget and forcast the next 12 months business and then have to readjust after half year when things arnt going to plan good times and bad times will probably even themselves out over time but the difference is when you are in control of your own destiny then you can adjust accordingly but when your hands are somewhat tied it then becomes almost impossible to have any influence on your future .
I refer the honourable gentleman to my reply given earlier.
Because I think the challenge is not so much about 'being able to do whatever' but more one of 'knowing (and agreeing) what to do'. Outside of the EU we will be able to make changes more easily to many things but will we be any more able to know and agree what changes are desirable to achieve a given aim ? I personally do not think so.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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PoshinDevon wrote:...I can see the link on this post but could not see it on your earlier post...

Posh - I deduce that you are using an Android device in order to read the forum!

There seems to be a problem with the Forum software (or with the Android Operating System itself) in that 'embedded' Youtube clips are not displayed on Android devices, that's why I usually try to post the URL as well as an embedded clip.

If you were to click on 'quote' on erol's post in which he mentioned the classic humour, you would see that at the end of his post, there is an 11-digit youtube reference number between 2 youtube tags...

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by PoshinDevon »

Nope

Using Apple.

Could not see on iPad and not on iPhone.

Could not see the link on Erol first post but did see it on second post.

Not a big deal.
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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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PoshinDevon wrote:Nope

Using Apple.

Could not see on iPad and not on iPhone.
Ahh! - Perhaps Apple devices suffer from the same issue!?!?

Did you try clicking on 'quote' to see whether the embedded code showed up?

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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Yes embedded code shows up when clicking quote.

Best get back on topic now.
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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by cyprusgaz »

Jose Mourinho is the best expert I know on getting out of Europe quickly.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

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cyprusgaz wrote:Jose Mourinho is the best expert I know on getting out of Europe quickly.

Nice one.
Does he now have a UK passport?

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

cyprusgaz wrote:Jose Mourinho is the best expert I know on getting out of Europe quickly.
Sign him up! cos the clowns we've got negotiating don't seem to have a clue.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by PoshinDevon »

U.K. and EU agree terms for Brexit Transition.

Things are moving along.
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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

A good step forward,.. someone must have banged some heads together

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by kibsolar1999 »

today it was agreed that Brexit is postponed till end of 2020.

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by turtle »

Today the uk got the ok to negotiate trade deals ready for freedom in 2020

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Re: Labour for SOFT, Consevative for HARD BREXIT

Post by waz-24-7 »

Some progress certainly.
January 2021 will allow additional time to get some better deals done .
Fishermen are none to happy.
Now it will be the time to see if we really can go out and get new trade deals and indeed compete in the market place.
Any deals secured and signed in this interim period. Short as it is, will need to be capitalised on immediately. I think the trade deficit will be quite massive for a time.
I don't think a trade mission to Russia will be on the agenda either.
Todays deal in my view is to quell concerns about the UK economy.
The EU will be pleased upon the climb down on immigration and EU citizen rights up to 2021.
Those UK economy sectors most reliant on EU labour will breath a sigh of reprieve.
The Fishing community are most disheartened as quotas are not within any agreement.
The Irish border remains a very delicate and real problem.
markets have reacted positively to the prospect of economic stability to at least 2021.
Am I happy about the deal? In essence yes.
If you are/were a Brexit voter should you rejoice? probably not as absolutely nothing sold during the vote has been delivered.

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