prophets of doom

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Re: prophets of doom

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Post by erol »

I have no problem if all you want to do ETS is use this current situation to spout off about your usual pet peeves just as you did before the crisis. I personally would welcome it if you would just stop trying to pretend, to yourself and everyone else, that you are doing anything other than this. I would also welcome it if you did not just assume that this is what I am doing simply because it is all you are capable of doing in a situation like this. I am not however holding my breath.

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Re: prophets of doom

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I'll tell you what how about we put 20 red marbles in a bag and 20 green marbles in a bag. The reds weigh 10 grams, the greens weigh 11 grams, 10% more. You can examine the contents of the bag as long as you like, weigh the marbles against each other in your hands before you start to dip in and make your choice.
Reckon you'll get 17 of one colour?

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Re: prophets of doom

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Post by PoshinDevon »

Thanks for responses Erol.

Unlike you I am not one to dissect everything, I have tried to make my point.

So finally from me:-

1. Comparing death rates etc is pointless unless you analyse how countries collect and report and are 100% certain each country is reporting in the same way.

2. When it is right and sensible to compare death rates we must also consider many other factors which influence this figure. One is population density, movement of people, compliance and understanding of regulations plus so much more. In some of these areas the U.K. could have done better for sure.

3. As for the way the government have tackled this pandemic, again with the caveat that they have not got it all right I believe that looking back 8 weeks and comparing where we are now to then it is a reasonable to say it’s not all doom and gloom. This morning I have listened to R4 and the ex Health Secretary giving his wisdom berating the medical and scientific evidence. I have also listened to former conservative leader IDS who have over the last few weeks taken the government to task. He also says the government have not always got it right; however to try and compare countries statistics like it was a sort of macabre competition is way to simplistic. Add to this conversations about the medical advice , lockdown, support for the economy and business that I have had with my family, friends, people I chat to from 2mtrs away and the vast majority agree with my train of thought. Within this circle it does include those elderly/vulnerable who are still in 12 week enforced lockdown, those that have been furloughed from work, those still attending their workplace and those working from home. Rest assured I do not accept things at face value but by the same token have little time for those who are self proclaimed “experts” spouting off on social media, in the press or on tv and hold no responsibility for the outcome of there decisions. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Will let you pick this apart but for me as they say in Dragons Den “ I am out”
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Re: prophets of doom

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Post by PoshinDevon »

And finally.....at last!

Victoria Derbyshire makes a fool of herself on the BBC.

Interviewing an Indian Doctor who is working for the NHS in Plymouth. He is not a British National, not a permanent British Resident, he is working in the U.K. on a temporary visa. An absolutely lovely guy.

His wife and children who were living with him in Plymouth went back to India in January for a eight weeks holiday to spend time with their families. She also has a temporary U.K. visa. Unfortunately due to Coronavirus virus, she has not been able to get back to the U.K., and doesn’t qualify for repatriation flights, due to not being a British National, or a permanent British resident. An absolutely lovely lady.

This is where it gets interesting;

Victoria Derbyshire tried every which way to get them both to criticise the British Government. They just wouldn’t do it. Instead the wife of the doctor said it must be very difficult for the Government. Not the answers Victoria Derbyshire wanted.

Having failed miserably once, Victoria Derbyshire then moved on to a different subject, which was not part of the original discussion, but one which was bound to provide a cheap headline.

She asked the Doctor, with him being in the ethnic minority and working in the NHS, how scared he was going to work each day?

His reply totally dumbfounded her, “Not at all, we don’t have much Coronavirus in the southwest, and our hospital and health authority have both been excellent.”

The look on Victoria Derbyshire’s face was like thunder, she hadn’t been told before the interview by the producers she would be talking to well educated, intelligent, reasonable people.

This is not journalism, it is cheap and lazy scaremongering journalism which unfortunately is happening every day.
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Re: prophets of doom

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PoshinDevon wrote:
Tue 19 May 2020 1:07 pm
And finally.....at last!

Victoria Derbyshire makes a fool of herself on the BBC.
What on the right wing BBC? Never!!!

Yes the BBC saw how popular the gotchas were on Noel Edmonds that now they put them in political shows.
Usual method is to invite on someone like the Transport Minister on a show about the London congestion charge which he will obviously have then prepared for and then drill him on the potential US trade deal with some made up rubbish about chlorinated chickens and enjoy him spluttering as he can’t answer.

To be fair to Victoria usually they randomly have on people that coincidentally are left wing activists maybe the booking agent made a mistake?

Remember UK, America and Israel always bad and everywhere else always good. That’s not to say you can’t occasionally move South Korea or Sweden on or off the naughty step if they follow the narrative as another means to beat UK, America or Israel over the head.

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Re: prophets of doom

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Post by erol »

So possibly finally from me:-
PoshinDevon wrote:
Tue 19 May 2020 1:01 pm
1. Comparing death rates etc is pointless unless you analyse how countries collect and report and are 100% certain each country is reporting in the same way.
I am 100% certain that every country in the world decides if someone is dead or not in the same way. Some countries have reasonable chance that they lie. So I do not look at China's numbers. Some countries may not have the means to efficiently count how many people have died in a period of time. Like say Syria currently, so I do not use those numbers. But places like Sweden, yeah I think they count who is dead or not the same way as the UK, I think they do not lie the same as UK and I think they are about as efficient at doing the counting. Or Spain or France or Japan or South Korea or Belgium or countless other places. Count exactly the same indisputable thing as UK does (is someone dead or not), with same level of honesty and around the same level of efficiency. I just see no logic in the position 'let's not compare because the thing being compared is not comparable country to country'. To me some things patently are directly comparable with many other countries. These are the things to compare because they are comparable.
PoshinDevon wrote:
Tue 19 May 2020 1:01 pm
2. When it is right and sensible to compare death rates we must also consider many other factors which influence this figure. One is population density, movement of people, compliance and understanding of regulations plus so much more. In some of these areas the U.K. could have done better for sure.
I want to know if the scale of this thing is either

Similar in scale to periodic flu break outs seen cyclically in the UK every 5 to 10 years

Or

Similar in scale to events seen once every 50 or 100 years.

I look at the ONS total deaths from all causes to make my judgement on this because in the media, on forums on social media there is an endless stream of people claiming both, even still. I look at the total death all causes figures and look at how many excess deaths we have seen since the outbreak started and I compare it with 5 year average (and I see 2 week with over 100% increase from 5 year average) AND I compare the height of weekly spikes with highest even seen in any previous week from cyclical flu out breaks every 5 - 10 years for as long as these numbers have been counted in this way (and I see two weeks since the outbreak that are higher than any previous flu spike out break).

I conclude this event in UK is NOT similar in scale to regular cyclical flu outbreaks seen every 5 - 10 years. It is comparable in scale to once in a lifetime events or once in a century events. The NUMBERS tell me this. The numbers that measures a simple definitive thing (dead or not), that has already happened and are being collected by people that have been doing such for decades in exactly the same way.

So when someone comes and posts an article about some expert that has done some study that shows the mortality rate of this virus is lower or no worse than that of flu and that the whole thing is being hyped out by the media, I have to conclude that the chances are the hard fact known numbers recording something clear cut and that has already happened are probably a better guide than a guessed number that can not be known yet with any certainty by anybody based on extrapolation in to the future. No matter the credentials of the expert. When the person posting such links to experts only ever posts links to experts that confirm what they thought from day one and never post ones that do not confirm what they thought from day one AND they also ignore the hard simple fact numbers we do have as a means of 'measuring' guesses against, I have to wonder if they want to understand better what is really going on at all.

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Re: prophets of doom

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Post by PoshinDevon »

Ok Erol I give up.

One last question re deaths.....can you 100% confirm that every country has recorded deaths as a result of Covid 19 or have they recorded deaths as with Covid 19, but it could have been a result of something else? With every death recorded have they been tested beforehand to see if they have tested positive for Covid 19? Sorry but it’s just not that simplistic. I don’t know why but for some reason I simply do not trust the figures coming out of China, maybe it’s just me.
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Re: prophets of doom

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Post by erol »

PoshinDevon wrote:
Tue 19 May 2020 6:12 pm
Ok Erol I give up.

One last question re deaths.....can you 100% confirm that every country has recorded deaths as a result of Covid 19 or have they recorded deaths as with Covid 19, but it could have been a result of something else? With every death recorded have they been tested beforehand to see if they have tested positive for Covid 19? Sorry but it’s just not that simplistic. I don’t know why but for some reason I simply do not trust the figures coming out of China, maybe it’s just me.
Look at deaths from all causes. That is my whole point. These numbers are not disputable. That is the whole point. You can measure as fact if this current event is bigger than previous 5 or 10 year cyclical events or not because a death is a death, no argument no dispute. Either more people are dying in weeks since this outbreak than in previous events or they are not. It is just facts. No opinion. No judgement calls. Just plain fact numbers. That is the whole point.

Not all numbers are the same. That is my whole point. Some of them we have been collecting in the same way for decades before this event and they still have value and can tell us stuff. Or just ignore all of them and make decisions based on what you first thought or want to believe.

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Re: prophets of doom

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Post by erol »

And as you missed it



That was at an emergency corona virus press event on 3rd March (total positives in UK at that point 51). The UK entered 'lock down' on 23 rd March (6,726). 27th March Johnson tested positive for the virus (14,745). 5th April he went in to hospital (48,436). 7th April he went in to intensive care (55,549).

As of today 250,121 confirmed positive tests results for the virus.
Last edited by erol on Tue 19 May 2020 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: prophets of doom

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If I look at the video do I have to send The Guardian a quid?
I know they reflect what everyone in the UK is thinking so I'm surprised they can't sell many papers or do their readers only like spending other peoples money?
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Re: prophets of doom

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EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Tue 19 May 2020 6:48 pm
If I look at the video do I have to send The Guardian a quid?
I know they reflect what everyone in the UK is thinking so I'm surprised they can't sell many papers or do their readers only like spending other peoples money?
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https://news.sky.com/video/coronavirus- ... y-11948548

can not embed this video on the forum and you have to watch adverts too first but if the guardian source offends you so much is this one OK for you complete with Sky News logo in top left of screen ? This was from a live press conference. I personally watched it live. All sorts of press were there. That's why they call them press conferences.

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Re: prophets of doom

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Week 19 ONS figures came in today. Only 3k deaths all causes over the 5 year average. This seems like a good result to me and I think it shows some support that some of those that died in 14-18 (where the amount over 5 year average was from 6 - 12k over) effectively died a few weeks to a month earlier because of covid-19 infection. I would guesstimate around 1-2 k deaths that did not happen in week 19 are because those people died already in weeks 14-18. Still early days but I will continue to start with the simple hard numbers and work out from there to form my opinions.

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Re: prophets of doom

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I try not to be a Prophet of Doom at any time but I do have a couple of questions. (1)Bearing in mind that probably all countries manipulate figures to suit either themselves and/or other countries, has anyone queried ones own or is it not wise to do so. (2) If the Wise, the Almighty, the Omnipotent President T., continues to consume the cure for Malaria on a daily basis, do you think there is a chance that he might make the world a safer place to live, by falling off his perch. Answers on a postcard please.

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sophie wrote:
Wed 20 May 2020 6:18 am
I try not to be a Prophet of Doom at any time but I do have a couple of questions. (1)Bearing in mind that probably all countries manipulate figures to suit either themselves and/or other countries, has anyone queried ones own or is it not wise to do so.
Some figures are easily manipulable - like what did someone die of.
Some figures are not easily manipulable - like did someone die or not.

I do not think the UK is lying or manipulating the total deaths all causes weekly figures. Nor do I think Sweden is, or Italy or Japan or Belgium or South Korea or any number of other countries.

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Re: prophets of doom

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Track and trace sounds like it will be a bit more problematical in the UK!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... hreat.html

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Re: prophets of doom

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Can we get back to Dominic Cummings, please.

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Re: prophets of doom

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I would rather get back to the subject of the thread.

There is a simple correlation when you look at countries across the world. Those that acted quicker have seen better outcomes than those that did not. Better by order of magnitude. Better in terms of lifespans shortened and better in terms of economic damage from measure taken. This correlation is massively stronger even than correlation with what measure were taken. What matters most is how early they were taken even more than the measures taken. The UK in terms of outcomes to date is showing some of the worst outcomes globally and the over riding core reason for this is that it acted too slowly.

My conclusion is that those countries that in effect listen more to the 'prophets of doom' re an outbreak of a novel virus like this one have to date managed the outbreak better than those that did not.

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Track and trace possible in SK with their obedient population and strict government but maybe not in UK you think?

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not only not possible in UK.

as the apps in SK, Taiwan, china, singapore use different "control functions", as they store contacts (also from people who never got covid), use bankdatas, inform neighbours.... all the lot... who wants that?

and in SK i read somewhere the app is not downloaded to the fully needed 60% and use "manual" trackings.., with the related difficulties seen in the latest outbreaks.

eg, also in france they want to store contact data centrally for 20 years and many will not download the app.
in germany they will introduce an app without data storage and also there the success will be doubtful.

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EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Fri 29 May 2020 7:41 am
Track and trace possible in SK with their obedient population and strict government but maybe not in UK you think?
I think what is clearly understandable by now is that actually what measure are taken is actually a lot less crucial in terms of outcomes to date than when they are taken. I also think something like track and trace is not binary in that it either works or does not and this is determined by if people are obedient or not. Any unknown infected person that is identified by this method is a benefit. So unless you are claiming no one at all will use track and trace in the UK, if voluntary and a UK Government with 80 seat majority can not and will not make it mandatory because the 'leftist' will not let them, then I do not see what the point is in your argument to be honest ?

You can make all the arguments you like but you can not change historic known facts. Using the only metric that is unarguable and directly comparable across any nation that you can trust and has reasonable competence, that of excess deaths to date from all causes vs 5 year average, the UK has done an atrocious job comparative to just about every other nation in the world who can truthfully count if someone is dead or not in a given time period.

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Re: prophets of doom

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kibsolar1999 wrote:
Fri 29 May 2020 10:07 am
as the apps in SK, Taiwan, china, singapore use different "control functions", as they store contacts (also from people who never got covid), use bankdatas, inform neighbours.... all the lot... who wants that?
In South Korea health officials can type in someone's name / social security number and near instantly get a listing of where they have used credit and debit cards and what mobile phone cells their phone has been connected too in the last 14 days (needs no app, needs no location service turned on). Now the state was always able to get this information as they can in all countries but pre covid it required warrants and delay and was used relatively sparingly. Now there is no need for warrants and the delay has been removed. Of course this has civil liberty issues but so does having to mandate where and when people can move at all. It is about finding the right balance imo.

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Re: prophets of doom

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erol wrote:
Fri 29 May 2020 10:12 am

I think what is clearly understandable by now is that actually what measure are taken is actually a lot less crucial in terms of outcomes to date than when they are taken. I also think something like track and trace is not binary in that it either works or does not and this is determined by if people are obedient or not. Any unknown infected person that is identified by this method is a benefit. So unless you are claiming no one at all will use track and trace in the UK, if voluntary and a UK Government with 80 seat majority can not and will not make it mandatory because the 'leftist' will not let them, then I do not see what the point is in your argument to be honest ?

You can make all the arguments you like but you can not change historic known facts. Using the only metric that is unarguable and directly comparable across any nation that you can trust and has reasonable competence, that of excess deaths to date from all causes vs 5 year average, the UK has done an atrocious job comparative to just about every other nation in the world who can truthfully count if someone is dead or not in a given time period.
OK so basically UK and America bad the rest of the world good.
I do wonder how long this new love affair with South Korea will last, trust me they really aren't your cup of tea.

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Re: prophets of doom

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erol wrote:
Fri 29 May 2020 10:18 am
pre covid it required warrants and delay and was used relatively sparingly. Now there is no need for warrants and the delay has been removed. Of course this has civil liberty issues but so does having to mandate where and when people can move at all. It is about finding the right balance imo.
So we are expected to believe that had Johnson presented this back in January that you wouldn't have been whining about the implications of this?
I believe that about as much as I believe you want Cummings to apologise and everyone to accept it and move on.

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EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Fri 29 May 2020 10:52 am
OK so basically UK and America bad the rest of the world good.
I do wonder how long this new love affair with South Korea will last, trust me they really aren't your cup of tea.
The numbers are just the numbers and your denial of them is you just showing you do 'USA good, UK good every were else bad' to a degree far far in excess of anything I do. It is basically just a means you use to avoid that facts you do not like. Numbers are numbers which is why I also say on this regard 'Israel good' because it's numbers are good and it did act early.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Fri 29 May 2020 10:52 am
So we are expected to believe that had Johnson presented this back in January that you wouldn't have been whining about the implications of this? I believe that about as much as I believe you want Cummings to apologise and everyone to accept it and move on.
You can and will believe what you like. However if you could get past 'I think it therefore it must be real and true' and actually bother to think 'I think this, how could I test that theory' then you would see how weak your theory is when compared with actual evidence. I live in Cyprus. Cyprus moved quickly, with quick being measured by when the first positive case was detected here. Did I in fact 'whine about the implications' of them moving fast here ? No I did not. You did. DId I not whine because here has a left wing government ? No because it does not have such a government. This is your problem ETS. You judge everyone else by your own standards. Because you would have slated any action at any time by any government that is 'left' and support any by a government that is 'right' you just assume everyone else behaves this way and to the same extreme degree you do. Well not everyone does is the simple truth.

If you had asked me 6 months ago which government do I think would react better to a global viral pandemic and achieve better outcomes as a result, the UK or the TRNC I would have said the UK. I would have also been wrong. Cyprus, north and south have achieved vastly better outcomes to date than the UK has and the reason they have achieved this is they moved quicker from when the first positive case was detected there. The correlation between better outcomes and how quickly a government acted from first case is overwhelmingly clear. It is only your 'Tory UK good' bias that forces you to have to deny this plain and simple reality.

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erol wrote:
Fri 29 May 2020 12:45 pm

Did I in fact 'whine about the implications' of them moving fast here ? No I did not. You did. DId I not whine because here has a left wing government ? No because it does not have such a government. This is your problem ETS. You judge everyone else by your own standards. Because you would have slated any action at any time by any government that is 'left' and support any by a government that is 'right' you just assume everyone else behaves this way and to the same extreme degree you do. Well not everyone does is the simple truth.
So I supported the lock down in Cyprus as a great idea because they aren't a left wing government? Don't think so.
So your post doesn't make much sense really does it?

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Post by erol »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Fri 29 May 2020 5:31 pm
erol wrote:
Fri 29 May 2020 12:45 pm

Did I in fact 'whine about the implications' of them moving fast here ? No I did not. You did. DId I not whine because here has a left wing government ? No because it does not have such a government. This is your problem ETS. You judge everyone else by your own standards. Because you would have slated any action at any time by any government that is 'left' and support any by a government that is 'right' you just assume everyone else behaves this way and to the same extreme degree you do. Well not everyone does is the simple truth.
So I supported the lock down in Cyprus as a great idea because they aren't a left wing government? Don't think so.
So your post doesn't make much sense really does it?
You consistently doubted the value of lockdown every where as far as I recall. In any case my point remains the same. You say you believe that had the Johnson government acted earlier in the UK then I would have criticised them for doing so. Believe what you like but it is nothing to do with reality. It is just to do with your own prejudices and the way you behave. Nor is there any evidence to support I would have done this and there is evidence I would not as I did not criticise early lock down here. When you start with 'what I think must be reality' then evidence is just something to be used when it supports and ignored dismissed when it does not.

And regardless of what I might or might not have done, the reality of the plain and simple correlation between how early countries acted and how good their outcomes to date have been, using the plain and simple unarguable metric of counting how many people are dead in a given time period, remains. The UK's outcomes using this plain and simple metric of unarguable historic fact are near the worst in the world. Worse even than the USA which is saying something. The overwhelming single reason reason why is they did not act quickly when other countries did. Still best not to think about that too much. Better to keep up the ad hominem attacks on me and my character and what I might have....

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Post by Dang »

I maybe mistaken but doesn't death rate just indicate how healthy the population is or how well we are coping with the active cases? Doesn't the daily infection rate or amount of active cases represent how a country is being effected by the illness?

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Dang wrote:
Sat 30 May 2020 9:49 am
I maybe mistaken but doesn't death rate just indicate how healthy the population is or how well we are coping with the active cases? Doesn't the daily infection rate or amount of active cases represent how a country is being effected by the illness?
You can not know how many people in a country are infected. All you can know is how many have been detected as being infected, which in itself varies massively from country to country.

What can be know with accuracy and without any argument , in any country capable of accurately and honestly counting total deaths from all causes is how many people have died in a give time period and how much increase there is in that time period vs rolling averages, typically 5 years averages for the same period in previous years.

This is the simplest, clearest unarguable way by which even non experts can get a grip on what the scale of this event is in terms of more people dying from all causes since it started. What is clear using this simple unarguable metric is that the scale of this event in places like the UK has already exceeded the scale of the number of excess deaths seen in periodic flu spikes seen every 5 or 10 years and it is still ongoing. To me this is just a demonstrable fact.

The other advantage of such numbers is they give a valid way to compare the outcome of how many more people have died in a given time period over what would be average for that time period across different countries because every country counts if someone is dead or not in exactly the same way. If one country is seeing no increase in total deaths all causes vs the 5 year average for that country and another is seeing a massive increase it is fair to say in the period those numbers cover the first country has managed the crisis better than the second.

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Re: prophets of doom

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erol wrote:
Fri 29 May 2020 6:06 pm

You consistently doubted the value of lockdown every where as far as I recall. In any case my point remains the same. You say you believe that had the Johnson government acted earlier in the UK then I would have criticised them for doing so.

And regardless of what I might or might not have done, the reality of the plain and simple correlation between how early countries acted and how good their outcomes to date have been, using the plain and simple unarguable metric of counting how many people are dead in a given time period, remains. The UK's outcomes using this plain and simple metric of unarguable historic fact are near the worst in the world. Worse even than the USA which is saying something. The overwhelming single reason reason why is they did not act quickly when other countries did. Still best not to think about that too much.
I still think the total lock down as was carried out worldwide will prove in time to have been a disaster.

You will will champion Cyprus for their lock down but seem to overlook the lack of track and trace in Cyprus which you champion as essential, how many horses are you backing here?
TRNC have burned their economy and have as many deaths as can occur on the dual carriageway in one crash.
Whether Sweden's way will end up the best way forward time will tell and I believe in 5 years time most countries will regret they didn't follow them.

The impact of how many people dead can't be measured in a given time frame it needs a year minimum.
Numerically a bomb in a ward of terminal cancer patients will effect the figures on the day, the week, the quarter to a far greater extent then it will within that year. Fifty people will have died on a day in January rather than spread throughout the calendar year.

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Re: prophets of doom

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EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Sat 30 May 2020 1:37 pm
I still think the total lock down as was carried out worldwide will prove in time to have been a disaster.
I still think it is patently clear by now that WHEN action was taken, how soon from the first detected positive case, is the single biggest factor correlating to how good or bad outcomes have been to date. Even more important than WHAT actions or what degree of them. The evidence for this is imo overwhelmingly compelling.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Sat 30 May 2020 1:37 pm
You will will champion Cyprus for their lock down but seem to overlook the lack of track and trace in Cyprus which you champion as essential, how many horses are you backing here?
Just not the case. Cyprus, both sides acted early. Both sides have good outcomes compare to place like the UK that acted late. The reality is Cyprus, both sides, has been tracking and tracing since the first detected case on each side and continues to do so.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Sat 30 May 2020 1:37 pm
TRNC have burned their economy and have as many deaths as can occur on the dual carriageway in one crash.
Yes Cyprus has NOT seen any material increase in excess deaths vs 5 year average BECAUSE they acted early. The UK that did not act early has seen weekly increases in excess of over 100% in two separate weeks so far and in large % increases in weeks before and after those two weeks, that saw excess deaths not seen before in the UK since at least 1957/8 and probably since 1917/18. The idea that if Cyprus had 'achieved' an excess death rate of similar scale to the UK's it's economy and particularly tourism and universities would have been fine and dandy is about as stupid an idea as I can imagine.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Sat 30 May 2020 1:37 pm
Whether Sweden's way will end up the best way forward time will tell and I believe in 5 years time most countries will regret they didn't follow them.
Yes I know you only want to talk about how right you will be shown to be in 5 years time, or if that does not pan out 10 and on and on. Forgive me for preferring to try and stick to what can be know from actual facts we have to date.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Sat 30 May 2020 1:37 pm
The impact of how many people dead can't be measured in a given time frame it needs a year minimum.
Yes so you keep saying and if you do not get the right result from reality in a years time you will no doubt move to 2 years , then 5 and on and on. The facts remain that in England and Wales we have already seen to date excess deaths higher than the 50k number you have predicted before (as if that is in itself 'OK'). Of course it is possible that by year end the over all numbers end up not being that different from yearly averages if the numbers going forward are 60k odd under what is normal for the rest of the year. It is possible but not likely imo. Nor would that match your claim that people who were dying were going to die 'within weeks' anyway and not 6 - 9 months.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:
Sat 30 May 2020 1:37 pm
Numerically a bomb in a ward of terminal cancer patients will effect the figures on the day, the week, the quarter to a far greater extent then it will within that year. Fifty people will have died on a day in January rather than spread throughout the calendar year.
Yes I understand the sophistry of your position and argument. I just do not think it is a sincere best attempt to understand underlying reality based on what we can and do know so far. I see it as just an attempt to find a way of supporting what you decided was the case before there was any evidence to inform such a view, back when all there was was your certainty of how right you are about everything and anything.

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