Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

Posted: **Mon 28 Sep 2020 10:46 am**

Just hit 10tl -£.

Posted: **Mon 28 Sep 2020 12:02 pm**

Remember the days when we were all Millionaires!!!

Posted: **Mon 28 Sep 2020 1:17 pm**

Has been one way traffic since erdogan took control of the central bank.

With further issues on the turkish economy horizon and when a free trade deal with the eu and uk is announced, 12 to the pound could be a reality in the near future.

Posted: **Mon 28 Sep 2020 1:27 pm**

Disastrous

Posted: **Mon 28 Sep 2020 4:09 pm**

The last Thursday of the month takes the biggest hit against TL as Government overseas debt repayments are normally due on this date. Best to watch closely as any big transfer will matter but not small week to week transactions to live. Turkey must be running very low on holding foreign currency especially the $.

Posted: **Mon 28 Sep 2020 4:46 pm**

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑
Mon 28 Sep 2020 1:17 pm
Has been one way traffic since erdogan took control of the central bank.

With further issues on the turkish economy horizon and when a free trade deal with the eu and uk is announced, 12 to the pound could be a reality in the near future.

That was forecast last year on some websites.

Posted: **Mon 28 Sep 2020 4:49 pm**

Brinsley wrote: ↑
Mon 28 Sep 2020 4:09 pm
The last Thursday of the month takes the biggest hit against TL as Government overseas debt repayments are normally due on this date. Best to watch closely as any big transfer will matter but not small week to week transactions to live. Turkey must be running very low on holding foreign currency especially the $.

See what I mean!

His posts may occasionally be impenetrable, but he's not daft!

Posted: **Mon 28 Sep 2020 6:11 pm**

KC, nobody has suggested B is daft, annoying sometimes though!!! BTW I've got some $ the Government can borrow, but it'll cost them.

Posted: **Mon 28 Sep 2020 6:14 pm**

sophie wrote: ↑
Mon 28 Sep 2020 6:11 pm
KC, nobody has suggested B is daft, annoying sometimes though!!! BTW I've got some $ the Government can borrow, but it'll cost them.

Clever people are often annoying! - YOU for instance!

Posted: **Mon 28 Sep 2020 6:18 pm**

His posts may occasionally be impenetrable, but he's not daft!

Brain and thinking works faster than rational up to date typing. Future posts will be based on my 2022 of forethought!!!

I did warn those that asked me whether to change £ to TL due to 20% interest rates and advised against because of 'soft, junk' currency status and poor economy outlook. I was ignored, but do feel a little sympathy for them when TL interest rates are now down to 10% 'ish, inflation rampant etc etc

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 8:35 am**

jayceebee wrote: ↑
Mon 28 Sep 2020 4:46 pm

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑
Mon 28 Sep 2020 1:17 pm
Has been one way traffic since erdogan took control of the central bank.

With further issues on the turkish economy horizon and when a free trade deal with the eu and uk is announced, 12 to the pound could be a reality in the near future.
That was forecast last year on some websites.

It was forecast 5 years ago on here!

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 9:34 am**

I am sure I picked this link up from here and I know I have posted it before. Apparently it is a well respected source so probably a little bit better than sticking your hand up in the air and grabbing a number. If you look at the predictions over the next couple of years it is scary.

http://poundf.co.uk/gbp-to-try-forecast

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 9:58 am**

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 8:35 am
It was forecast 5 years ago on here!

Lots of forecast made here on this forum. I still remember this one from September 2017

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=39547&p=191666#p191666

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 8:35 am
The fall in sterling was the expectation that the BoE would scorch the earth and they did. This was their (totally wrong) reaction to bexit and it massively impacted the value of sterling (by 11% as previously explained) so if you want anyone/anything to blame for your current situation blame the BoE reaction.

They have accepted their error and will start to unwind what they did in November so the pound will pick up from then on.

1 Sterling bought 1.14 euro back in nov 2017. Today it buys you 1.1 euro. Still waiting for the forecast pick up.

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 10:29 am**

You can spot trends and use some common sense and maybe get more right than wrong but like shares if anyone could accurately predict future currency rates enough to know when to buy and sell they would be the richest person on the planet.
Anyone who has money in lire at the moment because of the higher interest rates should be aware that it has dropped 25% against sterling in the last 6 months and 44% over the year. And sterling hasn’t been pulling trees up

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 1:06 pm**

erol wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 9:58 am

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 8:35 am
It was forecast 5 years ago on here!
Lots of forecast made here on this forum. I still remember this one from September 2017

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=39547&p=191666#p191666

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 8:35 am
The fall in sterling was the expectation that the BoE would scorch the earth and they did. This was their (totally wrong) reaction to bexit and it massively impacted the value of sterling (by 11% as previously explained) so if you want anyone/anything to blame for your current situation blame the BoE reaction.

They have accepted their error and will start to unwind what they did in November so the pound will pick up from then on.
1 Sterling bought 1.14 euro back in nov 2017. Today it buys you 1.1 euro. Still waiting for the forecast pick up.

Central Banks have been in currency wars since the crash of 2007. Each are trashing their economies with qe and the like to cheapen their currencies.

My opinion then was that the boe would stop deliberate devaluation and bring the economy back to a firmer footing - it was wrong and they continue to do so. Negative interest rates are being touted now. Where this ends is anyone's guess but fiat money may well end up worthless.

The post was about gbp v tlr and I stick by the forecasts made and that capital controls will continue to be deployed and extended in application.

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 2:07 pm**

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 1:06 pm
The post was about gbp v tlr and I stick by the forecasts made and that capital controls will continue to be deployed and extended in application.

You should go back and read the discussion. It was all about GBP to Euro rate and me pointing out how one consistent affect on me from the referendum vote was that I was getting less euro to the pound than before it. Less south bought tins of cat food for each of my GBP. You then went full 'specialist' and tried to explain to me how actually the majority of that loss, around 11% of it, was not because of the referendum result at all, but was down to stupidity, belligerence and mistakes the BoE had made (in you oh so humble opinion) and that they were going to correct in a couple of months. Along with you prediction the pound will pick up from then on. It did not. Three years on from that, and I am still waiting.

So you stand by whatever you want. I know the negative impact on me that I pointed out back then in 2017, still continues today.

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 2:46 pm**

Hate to say it Erol, the topic started pointing out the Turkish Lire was 10 to the £ earlier today.

I'm not one to change the tack of a topic as you all know, although I can't help myself wondering (yes I know know 'wondering' is dangerous to one of my advanced years) but does the fact that all those employed by the NC government including the politicians and civil servants who get paid, come what may including inflation increases, have little if any cause for concern over their incomes whatever is happening to their fellow citizens?

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 3:45 pm**

Hector wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 2:46 pm
Hate to say it Erol, the topic started pointing out the Turkish Lire was 10 to the £ earlier today.

Hector, they weren't discussing this thread, they were talking about a topic on a thread that was started in 2017

I know, I know....

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 3:56 pm**

Hector wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 2:46 pm
....but does the fact that all those employed by the NC government including the politicians and civil servants who get paid, come what may including inflation increases, have little if any cause for concern over their incomes whatever is happening to their fellow citizens?

yes and no.

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 4:34 pm**

If Brexit had not happened and all the wasted years debating whatever in Parliament about something that should never have happened excluding all other matters of state the £ to € would be about 1 = 1.30 in my opinion. In addition, all the Brexit expats with voting rights have now lost their EHIC rights to the ROC so will pay handsomely for what was once free medical treatment in the South with Lira holders suffering the most for any ailments incurred in the North in a now CLOSED Country.

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 4:57 pm**

erol wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 2:07 pm

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 1:06 pm
The post was about gbp v tlr and I stick by the forecasts made and that capital controls will continue to be deployed and extended in application.
You should go back and read the discussion. It was all about GBP to Euro rate and me pointing out how one consistent affect on me from the referendum vote was that I was getting less euro to the pound than before it. Less south bought tins of cat food for each of my GBP. You then went full 'specialist' and tried to explain to me how actually the majority of that loss, around 11% of it, was not because of the referendum result at all, but was down to stupidity, belligerence and mistakes the BoE had made (in you oh so humble opinion) and that they were going to correct in a couple of months. Along with you prediction the pound will pick up from then on. It did not. Three years on from that, and I am still waiting.

So you stand by whatever you want. I know the negative impact on me that I pointed out back then in 2017, still continues today.

My point was that in the old post you brought up we were not discussing gbp v tlr whereas this current thread is. You are off topic. If you want to start another thread or resurrrect the old one it would uncomplicate discussion on this particular thread.

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 5:01 pm**

Brinsley wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 4:34 pm
If Brexit had not happened and all the wasted years debating whatever in Parliament about something that should never have happened excluding all other matters of state the £ to € would be about 1 = 1.30 in my opinion. In addition, all the Brexit expats with voting rights have now lost their EHIC rights to the ROC so will pay handsomely for what was once free medical treatment in the South with Lira holders suffering the most for any ailments incurred in the North in a now CLOSED Country.

Impossible to say what any paired rate would be. In the real world you'd probably be right but central banks are actively desperate to devalue their currencies so are taking unorthodox actions which are impossible to predict or trade.

Again we are straying of topic but I've yet to see what has been agreed on the ehic arrangements. Can you enlighten?

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 5:27 pm**

To orchestrate the exchange rate by any leader of a Country to enhance the regime is outrageous!
I bet Trump would clear his $400,000.000 personal debt bill if he was in control of the USA central bank!
I'm sending him a $750 cheque to help him double his last tax declared paid amount!

Any gas/oil found around Cyprus will not help the Lira as World markets are saturated with the stuff hence the weak barrel oil price, so no gain there, however, it would knock out any foreign exchange for imported energy.

NEXT?!

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 9:27 pm**

Brinsley wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 4:34 pm
If Brexit had not happened and all the wasted years debating whatever in Parliament about something that should never have happened excluding all other matters of state the £ to € would be about 1 = 1.30 in my opinion.

Brexit happened because the majority of people indicated they wasn’t happy with the EU and when they got the opportunity they voted to leave.
The £ to € was around 1.30 just before Brexit so I assume that is why you think that should be the rate but many experts believe it was over valued at that rate.

Posted: **Tue 29 Sep 2020 10:14 pm**

................people indicated they wasn’t happy with the EU.................

My point exactly; the non-educated masses followed the blasting baboon buffoon into an euphoric frenzy not been able to forensically read the small print and foresee the consequences thereafter.

'.................people indicated they WEREN'T (WERE NOT) happy with the EU...............

Posted: **Wed 30 Sep 2020 6:42 am**

Whether you believe what any politician says is entirely up to you but please don't call everyone who voted for Brexit as uneducated. It is part of our culture that we are free to vote which way we like and whether that agrees with your opinion or not does not make all of us uneducated.

Posted: **Wed 30 Sep 2020 7:39 am**

Brinsley wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 10:14 pm
................people indicated they wasn’t happy with the EU.................

My point exactly; the non-educated masses followed the blasting baboon buffoon into an euphoric frenzy not been able to forensically read the small print and foresee the consequences thereafter.

'.................people indicated they WEREN'T (WERE NOT) happy with the EU...............

The consequence of brexit is independence and everything that flows from that - good or bad depending on individual circumstances.

Posted: **Wed 30 Sep 2020 8:01 am**

Please bear with me because this happened to me on Monday. Back in early February I paid £840 for two return tickets to UK via Pegasus. Covid intervened and I had money returned (In cash), the equivalent of £567.00 but in Lira. I came home and went through conversion rates from February 5th to Friday 24th £ to Lira and I was £20 out. Before anyone says you should have claimed through your bank as you paid by Credit card, but I didn't. Two reasons (a) I failed to realise that it would be 6 months before getting my money back, having being told it would be three months (b) I booked through an Independent travel Agent in Girne and I knew my UK bank would demand the refund from them rather than Pegasus. In my case it was probably loyalty gone awry, but I give loyalty and expect it back.

Posted: **Wed 30 Sep 2020 9:19 am**

Brinsley wrote: ↑
Tue 29 Sep 2020 10:14 pm

My point exactly; the non-educated masses followed the blasting baboon buffoon into an euphoric frenzy not been able to forensically read the small print and foresee the consequences thereafter.

People were joining and voting UKIP in droves before they even knew what side Johnson was on SFB.
I think you’ll find it was the small print that bothered them.
They used to write in Latin to keep the masses in Britain in the dark and now they need to forensically read small print?
Well out of it

NEXT!

Posted: **Wed 30 Sep 2020 11:16 am**

Do you remember the 'Remainers'? Gosh that's going back a bit....

Posted: **Wed 30 Sep 2020 11:52 am**

Hector wrote: ↑
Wed 30 Sep 2020 11:16 am
Do you remember the 'Remainers'? Gosh that's going back a bit....
[/quote

Can't say that I do!

Posted: **Thu 08 Oct 2020 10:51 am**

I do feel for anyone who bought TL years ago at rates around 2tl to 3 tl as their sterling would be a 1/4 of it’s original value so how could you cash in if you wanted to leave the trnc. I was one of those but cashed in just before the TL crashed years ago, still lost some money but a lucky escape compared to now.

Posted: **Thu 08 Oct 2020 2:07 pm**

Surely they must hike interest rates. Im not holding much tl just keep a small float of lira. 15 to 20 % interest rates must be on the horizon. If biden gets in its sanctions ahoy

Posted: **Thu 08 Oct 2020 2:20 pm**

I think that Mr. E. doesn't like high interest rates...

Posted: **Thu 08 Oct 2020 8:13 pm**

Rumour on the 'street' is a small rise of interest rates is imminent however, I personally do not believe it. Wait and see!

Posted: **Fri 09 Oct 2020 5:05 am**

He is between a rock and a hard place here. I guess high (or even any interest rates) are un-Islamic but I can’t see as he can strengthen the lire without increasing them. I’d be interested to know if he has a line in the sand or it is a plan eg weak currency should push exports and (eventually) tourism. The currency speculators must be all over this as it is bringing back memories of when the U.K. was trying to keep in the ERM at an unsustainable DM rate.

Posted: **Sat 31 Oct 2020 1:09 am**

There's only one central bank in the world selling its gold reserves to buy dollars at the moment.

Next step - capital controls.

Posted: **Sat 31 Oct 2020 9:16 am**

Despite albayrak saying no capital control this week some are already in place which clearly undermines what he says . Eg different saving taxes on currencies and banning certain foreign institutions from FX trading.

I'm anticipating an emergency rate hike after the us election on Wednesday . The current status quo is despite what albayrak says iunsustainable. Interest rates hike will happen before more aggressive capital controls . This albayrak character really lacks credibility he's claiming that the weak Turkish lira will drive the recovery as exports will be so competitive but the elephant in the room that everyone knows is turkey has to import all of its raw materials before it exports it's product which completely negates his rationale.

Posted: **Sat 31 Oct 2020 11:17 am**

It would seem to me that Turkey is in the eyes of a 'perfect storm' with a government who seem not to understand that 'the market' actually makes the rules. Endless disagreements with the world leaders and a complete lack of understanding of economic reality along with it's it's military adventurism means, without change, a junk lira !!

Posted: **Sat 31 Oct 2020 12:32 pm**

They have just adjusted end of year inflation figures to 12 percent but there is not a lot if faith in turkstat figures the director resigned and said t's all manipulated. Inflation seems a lot higher than 12 and with over 30 percent currency depreciation would point to a higher figure. Anyway the carry trade points to higher interest rates to stop capital flight and tempt foreign investors to hold lira.i hope there is a big hike in interest rates and they can avoid capital controls. Turkey has a young hard working population with great potential for growth ihope they can make the right structural changes to make the most of it

Posted: **Sat 31 Oct 2020 9:27 pm**

The tl continues to lose position because of several reasons. The dictatorial administration in Turkey is not popular, particularly with investors. They have placed investments in more trustworthy and predictable economies.
The tl is not a desirable currency. Trade between the EU and Turkey( a trade treaty is in place) now almost always transacts in Euros. tl has become a minority "local" currency. As such it has seen decreasing buying power and its value continues to fall against other currencies.
Interest rates on the "local" currency continue to be very high. "local" businesses are increasingly preferring to trade in other currencies. £ or US$
This can be seen in TRNC where sterling is increasingly preferred . TRNC banks continue to lend massive amounts of tl particularly to the construction industry. I see risk in this strategy. The bubble will in time burst and I see risk to savers with some of the banks. savers money is essentially financing the construction industry in the TRNC.
Certainly any TRNC savings plans should avoid high tl exposure and any historical savings in tl are very unlikely to recover soon or at all.

Posted: **Sat 31 Oct 2020 11:20 pm**

waz-24-7 wrote: ↑
Sat 31 Oct 2020 9:27 pm
The tl continues to lose position because of several reasons. The dictatorial administration in Turkey is not popular, particularly with investors. They have placed investments in more trustworthy and predictable economies.
The tl is not a desirable currency. Trade between the EU and Turkey( a trade treaty is in place) now almost always transacts in Euros. tl has become a minority "local" currency. As such it has seen decreasing buying power and its value continues to fall against other currencies.
Interest rates on the "local" currency continue to be very high. "local" businesses are increasingly preferring to trade in other currencies. £ or US$
This can be seen in TRNC where sterling is increasingly preferred . TRNC banks continue to lend massive amounts of tl particularly to the construction industry. I see risk in this strategy. The bubble will in time burst and I see risk to savers with some of the banks. savers money is essentially financing the construction industry in the TRNC.
Certainly any TRNC savings plans should avoid high tl exposure and any historical savings in tl are very unlikely to recover soon or at all.

https://kibkomnorthcyprusforum.com/view ... 84#p174784

Posted: **Sun 01 Nov 2020 8:57 am**

He must have a photographic memory,,,,

Posted: **Sun 01 Nov 2020 1:35 pm**

The next big event for rates is the USA election outcome.
Certainly markets and currencies change by the day , even hour as world events and news of, flash across investors radars at lightening speed.
Certainly my take on same can change in similar fashion.
currently: USA elections.

Turkey stands to lose more than most other countries if Biden is elected president since he is expected to toughen the U.S. stance against President Tayyip Erdogan's foreign military interventions and closer cooperation with Russia.

Watchers say the beleaguered Turkish lira, which has sunk nearly 30% this year, is especially vulnerable if a Biden administration pulls the trigger on long-threatened sanctions over Ankara's purchase of Russian S-400 missiles.

Posted: **Sun 01 Nov 2020 7:43 pm**

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑
Sat 31 Oct 2020 11:20 pm

https://kibkomnorthcyprusforum.com/view ... 84#p174784

This didn’t age well

Posted: **Tue 03 Nov 2020 11:12 am**

Just gone 11,forecast 12.
Where will it end?

Posted: **Tue 03 Nov 2020 2:54 pm**

In 2024 it will hit 17 - or so the predictions say. I wonder if the predictors took into account Brexit?

Posted: **Wed 04 Nov 2020 12:57 am**

waddo wrote: ↑
Tue 03 Nov 2020 2:54 pm
In 2024 it will hit 17 - or so the predictions say. I wonder if the predictors took into account Brexit?

Nonsense.

It could hit 17 in 2024 or 27 or 37.

Or it could hit 7.

Posted: **Wed 04 Nov 2020 1:05 am**

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑
Mon 28 Sep 2020 1:17 pm
Has been one way traffic since erdogan took control of the central bank.

With further issues on the turkish economy horizon and when a free trade deal with the eu and uk is announced, 12 to the pound could be a reality in the near future.

Half-way there in a little over a month.

A brexit deal could see 12

Posted: **Wed 04 Nov 2020 6:43 am**

Hedge-fund wrote: ↑
Wed 04 Nov 2020 12:57 am

waddo wrote: ↑
Tue 03 Nov 2020 2:54 pm
In 2024 it will hit 17 - or so the predictions say. I wonder if the predictors took into account Brexit?

Nonsense.

It could hit 17 in 2024 or 27 or 37.

Or it could hit 7.

Quite agree - nonsense, like all long term predictions are, simply guesswork! Not my prediction I hasten to add, have never believed any prediction since “Peace in our time”. I can post the URL if you want to see how close it gets in the next three years.

Kibkom North Cyprus Forum

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