Tl =£

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Re: Tl =£

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Post by Hedge-fund »

Musical chairs in the Turkish central bank and the Finance minister has just resigned.

This should bring strength to the lira.

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Post by Reyntj »

Wait for tomorrow . Trump's out....turkeys central bank chief has been ousted with no reason given and two hours ago albayrak who has been running the economy for five years had resigned it doesn't look good..

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Post by Reyntj »

Trump out
Albayrak out
Chief central bank ousted
Carnage

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Post by Reyntj »

I suppose we will see tommirrow albayrak did seem to lack credibility and the new central bankers is old school from when Barbican was about.cant see biden being a lira positive though!

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Post by Hedge-fund »

Hedge-fund wrote:
Sun 08 Nov 2020 7:23 pm
Musical chairs in the Turkish central bank and the Finance minister has just resigned.

This should bring strength to the lira.

Lira up 5% this morning against GBP.

Just traders getting out of weak longs at the moment.

All eyes on actions over the next few days/meetings as to whether Turkey will raise interest rates - which they desperately need to.

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Post by Wines Of The World »

Price of Gold has rocketed again since Sleepy joe outcome .
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Post by Hedge-fund »

Gold price is dumping due to a possible vaccine.

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Post by mrsgee »

We shall see,if the negative knowledgeable peeps who come on here and make their predictions... are correct. Or not.....

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

If Turkey puts up interest rates the TL will strengthen some more but it will be interesting to see to what degree

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Post by Hedge-fund »

Interest rates are a small but important part of the monetary jigsaw but Turkey's problems go a lot lot deeper.

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Post by Reyntj »

The surge in the tl did not last long back to 11 tl. Erdogan has appointed the vice president as finance minister
.from what I can make out he has no better financial credentials to run the economy than albayrak just more of the same with erdogan steering the ship.this is clearly part of the problem as erdogan wants to run everything so doesn't need financial experts to advise him more people to carry out instructions .he has replaced his right hand man with his left hand man.

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Post by Reyntj »

I have done some research on lutfi Elvan the new finance ministry he is 58 and worked in n various ministries.

He has a degree and masters in mining . This is key as I assume erdogan will instruct him to dig the country out of its financial hole

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Post by waddo »

Mrsgee, Rather than guess at the future, I prefer to let others do it for me - http://poundf.co.uk/gbp-to-try-forecast
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Post by Reyntj »

There is nothing wrong with your prediction cut and paste but I think you will find this is not another person's prediction just a statistical extrapolation of historic performance.

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Post by Up the Reds. »

Maybe a seance or a tarot card reading might give us the answer 🤗

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Post by Mowgli597 »

Up the Reds. wrote:
Tue 10 Nov 2020 10:21 am
Maybe a seance or a tarot card reading might give us the answer 🤗
You’d at least get a happy medium!

Sorry. Humour. Wrong place. I’ll get my coat.

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Post by waddo »

Lies, damned lies and Statistics! "Just a statistical extrapolation of historic performance." How True it all is but it saves me guessing and gives me more hope than Brexit ever will - lol.
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Post by MVP »

We're in Mersin at the moment.
Crisis what crisis?
Things seem to be booming in the real world over here. It's Tuesday night 10pm and the fairground is in full swing and plenty of people out shopping, eating and drinking.

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Post by Chriswright03 »

10.1 at the moment. Rare it going back down again. Is that because of the dollar and the Trump fiasco or have the Bank in Turkey rescued it?

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Post by Hedge-fund »

Chriswright03 wrote:
Thu 12 Nov 2020 2:04 pm
10.1 at the moment. Rare it going back down again. Is that because of the dollar and the Trump fiasco or have the Bank in Turkey rescued it?

I posted on this thread on Sunday about the musical chairs.

Also, Erdogan is courting the markets....


https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/ ... rkish-lira

Interest rates should go up sharply next week.

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Post by mrsgee »

So interesting how things change and the gloomsters fall from grace...,then again it could all change again at the drop of a hat..... lol

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Post by Geoff1131 »

I think i have found a fool proof way of working out how things will pan out. I simply read whatever Waz says on this forum and do the opposite. It seems to work every time.

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Post by Hedge-fund »

Geoff1131 wrote:
Fri 13 Nov 2020 7:01 am
I think i have found a fool proof way of working out how things will pan out. I simply read whatever Waz says on this forum and do the opposite. It seems to work every time.

From 3 years ago....


https://kibkomnorthcyprusforum.com/view ... az#p191490

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Post by waz-24-7 »

Geoff1131 wrote:
Fri 13 Nov 2020 7:01 am
I think i have found a fool proof way of working out how things will pan out. I simply read whatever Waz says on this forum and do the opposite. It seems to work every time.

Hello G
Not sure what you refer to. I should be pleased that you take the time to read my views. It may be that you disagree with my comments upon exchange rates. Please do offer your own views rather than criticise my own.

I think possibly you have a high interest but little comparative value tl savings account and to cash in would show significant loss.
That is not my doing at all.
Certainly sterling remains comparatively weak against the Euro and US$. That has been the case past few years. tl has been very volatile and remains so. In the short to medium long I see little change and it is unfortunately the case that many tl investors and savers in TRNC that have maturing savings accounts will continue to lose out on capital values.
Some are better off than others and losses are closely linked to the exchange rate at time of investment. some have their life savings in tl from years ago and one must feel for them as their investment capital has plummeted.
Some are unfortunately tied into capital investments in tl when it was 2.4tl/£. The maths to determine the losses is not overly difficult.

So G....do go out and buy tl in a TRNC bank....there's no risk at all..
follow your instinct and your informative post and you'll be fine.

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Post by Geoff1131 »

Waz, i get quite a lot of pleasure reading your posts. Laughter is good for the soul. I am no financial expert and not in the same league as you when it comes to giving out advice. You are correct i am one of those poor unfortunate people that came here to live in 2005 when i put £100000 into a Turkish Lira account @ 2.4 ish to the pound. Interest rates then were about 25% so in my first year here i was able to buy a new car at the end of the year using the interest, as well as covering all my day to day living costs. Those were indeed the Halcion days and never for a moment did i think they would continue. But even though the interest rate has continued to reduce over the years i have still been able to buy another 2 cars over the years and to pay all costs for living. After my first 10 years here i became entitled to receive my UK state and other pensions , which are paid into my UK bank and are there to use should i ever feel the need. The income i get from my initial investment is now not enough to cover my needs, so i do from time to time transfer money to exchange for the now higher rate of Tl. My gut feeling is that interest rates in the TRNC will be raised very soon to try to contain the run on the Tl. So my income from my local accounts should increase.
You say my initial investment is now worth a lot less that it was when i first came here. You are quite right. But i have no intention of changing it back to sterling , why would i? I am more than happy with the way i used my money and sincerely hope you are as lucky.
Last edited by Geoff1131 on Sat 14 Nov 2020 11:42 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Post by Up the Reds. »

Geoff1131 just remember that the definition of an expert ...'EX' is a 'has been' !!!! And a 'spert' ...not possible to put on here ...It would get you banned !!! Like so many here you either make money on your initial lira investment and live off the high interest rate and do very well day to day and accept the decline in value. At the same time the income from UK Pensions have kept up with exchange rates so ' win on one hand and lose on the other'!! The really 'clever' people would have played one against the other. Myself, lived for several years on high interest (alllowed me to retire in my late 50's) and then when I got my pensions in sterling watched my lira account lose value but accepted the fact my pension kept pace. Hindsight is no help to man nor beast so you just have to 'suck up' what fate brings us.

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Post by waddo »

"Spert" = "Drip under pressure". Well at least that is what I have always known it to be - lol. Having been the "Expert" in charge of all IT systems (4000+ customers) in my last job, that was how it was explained to me - looking back on it, it was dead right!
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Post by waz-24-7 »

Geoff1131 wrote:
Sat 14 Nov 2020 10:04 am
Waz, i get quite a lot of pleasure reading your posts. Laughter is good for the soul. I am no financial expert and not in the same league as you when it comes to giving out advice. You are correct i am one of those poor unfortunate people that came here to live in 2005 when i put £100000 into a Turkish Lira account @ 2.4 ish to the pound. Interest rates then were about 25% so in my first year here i was able to buy a new car at the end of the year using the interest, as well as covering all my day to day living costs. Those were indeed the Halcion days and never for a moment did i think they would continue. But even though the interest rate has continued to reduce over the years i have still been able to buy another 2 cars over the years and to pay all costs for living. After my first 10 years here i became entitled to receive my UK state and other pensions , which are paid into my UK bank and are there to use should i ever feel the need. The income i get from my initial investment is now not enough to cover my needs, so i do from time to time transfer money to exchange for the now higher rate of Tl. My gut feeling is that interest rates in the TRNC will be raised very soon to try to contain the run on the Tl. So my income from my local accounts should increase.
You say my initial investment is now worth a lot less that it was when i first came here. You are quite right. But i have no intention of changing it back to sterling , why would i? I am more than happy with the way i used my money and sincerely hope you are as lucky.
Hello G
Thank you for your honesty. Laughter is indeed a marvelous therapy.
I too have been hit I bought @ 2.4tl though not to the extent that causes great concern.
I do not live in the TRNC so understandably my investments do not warrant excessive exposure, I hold a sterling TRNC account which gives about 2.5% and this is in my view the safer option to cover tl volatility.
I'm afraid that many took the view that high interest rates upon massive life changing tl investments would pay dividends for ever. High interest rates always come with associated risk. Some high earning exposure is not a bad move but a full blown all in is not in my view prudent.

My view is that tl will recover during 2021. Perhaps to 8tl which is of is course good for the ex pat group we discuss.
I doubt that prices in shops etc will fall back in line and cost of living will be effectively higher.

Of course, Money is not everything and quality of life is just as important if not more so.
Money is a driver of ambition and as someone once said to me.
Money does not always bring you happiness but it makes unhappiness a lot more bearable.

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Post by Up the Reds. »

Waddo, Like you, pre millenium, I had a high powered international job...an expert!!!! After all these years 'The Memsab' tells me I am particularly expert at opening wine bottles and beer cans, moderately expert at DIY and gardening and a work in progress at being 'A grumpy old man' !!! She also says that I am particularly adept at talking rubbish about international politics !! So happy to alive !!! 😅😅😅😅😅

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Post by Soner »

TL 10.11 this morning, seems to be recovering but for how long who knows. Not sure if it is good or bad, and have given up on putting money away in either currency TL or GBP (not that I now have any to put away) after losing 4.5K GBP due to fall of TL a few years ago. Any TL that I get from rent or sales, gets spent immediately. Any GBP that I receive gets spent gradually. Not sure if I am going about the best way with the management of my income but I seem to be coping OK so far.

I still have 11 years before I receive a pension, but have been told that I am already "A grumpy old man", and have been given a wall plaque stating that I am. Thanks, you know who you are. (:Z)
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Post by martandjen »

We know who we are too 😂😂😂😂😂

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Post by Soner »

May have to use it as a "regift" at Christmas. We??? Sorry Martin, I am pretty sure it was not your idea.
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Post by Up the Reds. »

Soner, just like you have lost quite a bit on lira but realise compared to a lot of others we're very lucky. Enough food on the table, sun shines (but not today) and there's always plenty to moan about where ever you live on this Earth !! Pint glass half full I say !! 😜😜

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Post by Hedge-fund »

Hedge-fund wrote:
Thu 12 Nov 2020 5:27 pm
Chriswright03 wrote:
Thu 12 Nov 2020 2:04 pm
10.1 at the moment. Rare it going back down again. Is that because of the dollar and the Trump fiasco or have the Bank in Turkey rescued it?

I posted on this thread on Sunday about the musical chairs.

Also, Erdogan is courting the markets....


https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/ ... rkish-lira

Interest rates should go up sharply next week.

Interest rates gone up by nearly 5% today.

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Post by mrsgee »

Interesting...., forgive the pun.... but funny since some were predicting in here further weakening of the Lira..... but ..... who knows.... good news for some...

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Post by Hedge-fund »

To be fair you can only predict given the circumstances as they stand.

If erdogan steps in and does an about turn and what the markets have been warning him to do - then the lira will move.

A few sackings and a rate hike will not solve Turkey's deep rooted issues.

They need wholesale restructure - preferably overseen by the IMF - otherwise these actions are merely a slowing down on the road to ruin rather than a U turn.

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Post by Hedge-fund »

Wines Of The World wrote:
Mon 09 Nov 2020 3:31 pm
Price of Gold has rocketed again since Sleepy joe outcome .
Hedge-fund wrote:
Mon 09 Nov 2020 5:32 pm
Gold price is dumping due to a possible vaccine.
Gold continues to dump now we have 3 vaccines on the horizon.

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Post by Wines Of The World »

Hedge-fund wrote:
Tue 24 Nov 2020 5:40 pm
Wines Of The World wrote:
Mon 09 Nov 2020 3:31 pm
Price of Gold has rocketed again since Sleepy joe outcome .
Hedge-fund wrote:
Mon 09 Nov 2020 5:32 pm
Gold price is dumping due to a possible vaccine.
Gold continues to dump now we have 3 vaccines on the horizon.
Back in August i was going to dump some when it was on the rise and hit about 2050 Dollar,then i hesitated and thought it was on a big run and ill wait, im still waiting and now we down to 1810 Dollar, im sure it will hit 3000 Dollar ($$) soon !!
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