On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by erol »

Just my own personal thoughts on this day that should have been Brexit day. Please do feel free to ignore, disagree, ridicule or any combination as suits.

Had at any stage of the leaving process since the referendum vote the government pursued a strategy of exiting the EU whilst seeking to maintain participation in the customs union as the target for the end of the transition period then we would today, in a matter of hours, have crossed the threshold of us having legally left the EU with there being no way back without us agreeing to accept the euro and join schengen and various other conditions that we spent 40 years inside resisting. To me this is just a plan and simple truth.

Had the government done this there would still have been, of course, those that for whatever reason and regardless of how right or wrong their actions are, would still have done everything in their power and ability to stop us leaving at all but in such a scenario they simply would not have had the means or ability to achieve this aim. Had the government done this then yes the Labour party would still have 'dicked around' and almost certainly sought to oppose such for no other reason than it was being proposed by the 'other side' and regardless of what was best for the county but they would not have been able to stop such an exit from passing in parliament. Yes in the first round of an indicative vote process such an option 'lost' but it lost by a margin of 8 votes, but with 102 abstentions many of which are from parties and individuals that are only abstaining vs voting for it because it it is the first round of an indicative vote process and not a legally binding decision. In addition to this the vote lost with 230 odd conservative mps voting against it in the first round of an indicative vote process. Had the government itself pursued this as an exit strategy and put it to the house as an actual binding proposal that would not be the case. Yes had the government pursued such a strategy the DUP would still have preferred a 'no deal' exit and would no doubt have tested to the limit if that was achievable but once they had done that and established it was just not achievable they would have voted for this way of exiting. I have no doubt at all that had the government at any point pursued this route of exiting the EU and delivering on the referendum result it would have secured the majority needed in parliament and in hours we would legally be out of the EU.

I also think it is true that of all the ways that exiting the EU and delivering on the referendum vote result could have been pursued by the government, the one that, as a collateral consequence, would cause the most damage to the conservative party internally was the strategy of exiting but with a non legally binding target of remaining in the customs union at the end of the transition period. I find it impossible to believe that the reason why such a strategy has not been pursued by the government and so resolutely resisted to date, is unconnected in any way to this reality.

To those who believe the UK being outside the EU but still in a customs union would be bad and wrong for the UK, a view I do not personally hold, I would say I respect such an opinion absolutely and they may well be right but would urge them to consider the following. Had the government pursued this means of exiting the EU there would be nothing legally binding that would prevent the UK from changing it's mind on this issue, either during the transition period or at any time after that but it would have got us over that crucial threshold of us being legally out of the EU and there being no way back to EU membership without having to accept euro, schengen, etc etc. Do they think that the UK being out of the EU but still in a the customs union, as bad as that might be, is as bad as the UK remaining in the EU or as bad as it remaining in this crippling paralysed state that it is currently in ?

To those who say that had the government perused such a strategy that would be the same as being in the EU or would be BINO (brexit in name only) and / or would be a betrayal of the referendum vote and not delivering on it - I do not know what to say to them really. such notions are to me so absurd I find it hard to engage with them at all. Possible responses might be along the lines of 'what ?', 'are you joking ?', 'seriously ?' or 'how can not having to pay in to the EU any more, not having to allow free movement of EU citizens to work and reside in the UK, not being bound by vast swathes of EU regulations current or future (including those like banana shape classifications and what claims can be put on bottles of water) and not having to have and elect MEP's be said to be the same as being in the EU or being in the EU in name only or not have delivered what people voted for in the referendum.

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by Dalartokat »

Well said Dr. Alice Weidal, AfD leader, Germany, giving speech on Brexit.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=63IcW4eo4uM
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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by turtle »

A hard hitting and truthful speech from the lady....and that is the reason why No Deal should be left on the table as a bargaining chip.

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by Catlover »

I totally agree, and how wonderful to hear a European criticising their system.
A brilliant speech - puts the UK politicians to shame!

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by wanderer »

I can highly recommend the views of Doreen Tipton video on a facebook video from yesterday it contains swearing and is 1 minute 50 seconds long
google it

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

erol wrote:
Had at any stage of the leaving process since the referendum vote the government pursued a strategy of exiting the EU whilst seeking to maintain participation in the customs union......
if we stay in the Customs Union we have to continue to levy high tariffs on goods that are cheaper on world markets, goods where there is no significant domestic UK industry to protect.
More importantly it ties us into the European Court of Justice and deprives us of the ability to decide its own laws over very wide fields of domestic policy extending far beyond customs controls themselves.
Nothing is that simple with the EU, there are always lots of added bonuses.

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by erol »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:if we stay in the Customs Union we have to continue to levy high tariffs on goods that are cheaper on world markets, goods where there is no significant domestic UK industry to protect.
Yes it does and balanced against that are all the economic benefits of not needing any customs controls with trade between the UK and the EU AND the 'political' benefit of not putting at risk all that was achieved with the good Friday agreement and the Union. In three years now no one advocating leave and stay out of customs union has been able to come up with a realistic way of dealing with the NI issue. I would prefer some honesty quite frankly. If you think getting out of a customs union is more important that the risk to NI, in terms of peace, in terms of being in the union and other stuff then just say 'I am willing to sacrifice NI and risk a return to politics of violence there ' in order for the UK to not be in a customs union.
EnjoyingTheSun wrote:More importantly it ties us into the European Court of Justice and deprives us of the ability to decide its own laws over very wide fields of domestic policy extending far beyond customs controls themselves.
Easy to say but is it actually true ? Just to take the two examples you gave before of 'silly EU laws forced on the UK because the EU just likes doing such things for the sake of it'. In a customs union nothing would stop from classifying 'bananas' for sale in the UK in any way we wanted. Nothing would stop us from allowing bottle water manufactures putting claims on water sold in the UK that drinking water can alleviate the causes of dehydration (even though it does not). I have not done any 'research' but I would also bet 'blind' that the majority of EU laws / regulations that the UK voted against and lost were not related to being in a customs union at all. That even the vast majority of them were not. With out any evidence supplier I find you claim (as if fact) that remaining in the customs union would "deprives us of the ability to decide its own laws over very wide fields of domestic policy extending far beyond customs controls themselves." nothing more that wind. Give some actual hard examples and I may well change that view but just keep making the claim without such and I remain suspicious that such claims are no more true than we pay 350 million a week in to the EU and if we did not that money could be used on things like the NHS'.

Remember anything we want to sell in to the EU, even outside of a customs union, will require those goods to meet EU regulations and laws and such trade will be subject to ECJ re disputes. Nothing can change this simple reality.

And be clear the situation is not in order to get out of the situation we are in right NOW, it is not necessary for those who voted leave to accept we must define in law that at the end of a transition period we must end up in a customs union (and remain in it). It is only necessary for them to accept that this will be the 'destination' we try and aim for during the negotiations in a transition period. And remember, no deal does not have a majority in the house, may's deal does not have a majority in the house and saying customs union is the destination we will try and head for may well be the ONLY thing that can get such a majority. The mess we are in right now is the PRESSING problem. We have to get out of it. Just saying 'leave with no deal' whilst also wailing about 'will of the people' and 'democracy' are the cries of a hypocrite.

The problem right now is one of refusal to compromise. That refusal is from the 'leave' side. A refusal not to compromise on us ending up in a customs union, but a refusal to compromise on us having that as the destination will will try and reach in the transition period. The more they maintain that stubbornness the more justified asking the people again before having implemented the result of the first referendum is - in my humble opinion.

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by EnjoyingTheSun »

I don't have your dexterity on these matters Erol and can't always explain the con but I can smell them a mile off.
I know how this works, we stay in the customs union with a few frills an extras and in a years time when we find we have some new law foisted on us you will cheerfully point out that well you knew signing up to the customs union......

As for compromise, I linked an article then I believe was pretty balanced, when it was tabloid nonsense it called it but it didn't 100% show your point of view so that wasn't acceptable.
Compromise will be we stay in the EU in all but name. So no compromise if we leave with no deal then so be it. All the scare stories will be proven to be scare stories. It will be bumpy in the early stages but our long term economy will benefit I have no doubts of that.

We'll survive. Customers with money to spend usually find the welcoming mat somewhere.
God forbid we might have to move closer to fascist America but I'm willing to suffer that. It can't be that bad, all those liberal luvvies who were going to leave if Trump got in are still there.
Chumpsky and Michael Moore hang in there as distasteful as it is. Obviously Michael Moore does a lot of his post production work etc in Canada but that's for tax reasons as I understand it. Do as I say not as I do.

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by PoshinDevon »

From the Guardian of last Sept but still very relevant. Why the customs union is not a good option.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rts-brexit

Basically we are tied to the EU with no say.

I cannot believe that under any circumstances that the EU would allow the U.K. any say or even a seat at the table when not a full EU member. Plus there is the restriction on negotiating our own deals.

Also Erol you mentioned Turkey and a customs union on a different/similar topic. A quick snapshot of this element of the article..........

First, almost nobody – not even Norway or Switzerland – is in a customs union with the EU. Turkey is, but its situation is so skewed against it that the country is seeking to renegotiate. Turkey, of course, entered its customs arrangement as a stepping stone to full membership. We are heading in the opposite direction. Tariffs, quotas, trade agreements – these are all important parts of our economic policy that would no longer be decided by those we elect in this country.


Sorry not for me but I have a feeling this is the way we are heading.
The PMs deal may isn’t very good but this arrangement IMO is much worse in the long term for the U.K. and other countries outside the EU looking in will think we are barking mad to consider it.
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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by erol »

EnjoyingTheSun wrote:Compromise will be we stay in the EU in all but name. So no compromise if we leave with no deal then so be it. All the scare stories will be proven to be scare stories. It will be bumpy in the early stages but our long term economy will benefit I have no doubts of that.
1. We can leave the EU completely and either have wto trade with them or a canada deal at some point - this is the 100% leave option.
2. We can leave the EU and remain in the customs union. As far as this is 'still being in the EU' is is only the case to a degree. To argue that it would be at most a degree more than 75% out and 25% in I think is risible. To argue it is more in that out is beyond risible.
3. We can leave the EU and remain in customs union and the EFTA. This you might be able to argue is more in than out.
4. We can leave the EU and remain in customs union and EFTA and other things as well. This would be more in than out and fairly described as BRINO.

Now MY position is I accept option 1 - but the FACT is that has proven impossible to to get a majority in the commons for. If it could be a way out of the mess we are in right now I would accept that - BUT IT IS NOT.

Given this reality please try and understand my frustration at being told

1. I do not accept the referendum and just want it over turned because I am anti democracy and have to have my own way.
2. I am the one that will not compromise that has led us to the place we are right now and stopping us getting out of that place when the ones telling me this will not compromise on anything that is not 100% out and nothing else.

I do not ask you at agree with me but please to try and understand why this is, for me, so frustrating.

I will not accept an argument that all those who voted leave in 2016 would not and do not accept a customs union as the objective in the next stage as a way out of the mess we are in right now. I will not accept that because I KNOW a person who voted leave would accept that.

I will not accept that a majority of those who voted leave would not and do not accept a customs union as the objective in the next stage as a way out of the mess we are in right now, when such is being told to me by people 'shouting' at me 'democracy' and 'will of the people' who are also doing everything in their power to avoid the people having a direct say on this or anything else as a way out of the mess we are in.

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by PoshinDevon »

Erol,

Why would the UK want to remain in a customs union when having to continue to pay in, have no say and unable to draw up our own deals. I find it very difficult to understand why the U.K. would want this.
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Post by erol »

PoshinDevon wrote: Sorry not for me but I have a feeling this is the way we are heading.
The PMs deal may isn’t very good but this arrangement IMO is much worse in the long term for the U.K. and other countries outside the EU looking in will think we are barking mad to consider it.
For me Pid all I am focused on, all I am interested in, all I want ,right now is a way forward that is possible and does not involve a hard exit by 'mistake' or 'default'.

So my proposal to you would be, as a way forward and out this mess.

We put to the people a binary choice.

1. We leave the EU and all institutions of the the EU entirely.
2. We leave the EU but seek to remain in customs union.

If you are not prepared to consider such a means as a way forward and out the mess we are in right now then I would suggest you need to have a good hard look in the mirror and ask how sincere you are about things like 'democracy' and 'will of the people'.

(you could propose the same way forward with the binary option being, leave with no deal, or leave but seek to remain in a customs union - but really does anyone really doubt what the result of that would be) ?

--------------

To ETS - I understand your concerns that if we were to remain in a customs union, this would and could only lead to ever creeping being sucked in against our will back towards being in the EU 100%. I would consider and almost certainly accept any proposals or ideas you might have as to how , should we remain in a customs union, we could protect against this happening, against the will of the people.

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by erol »

PoshinDevon wrote:Erol,

Why would the UK want to remain in a customs union when having to continue to pay in, have no say and unable to draw up our own deals. I find it very difficult to understand why the U.K. would want this.
I literary have no time to debate this right now but the 'UK' does not either. We have to find a way forward that is possible (will be passed by the house). That is it.

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Post by waz-24-7 »

The UK is most certainly in between a rock and a hard place.
To remain in a customs Union but to leave the EU is pointless and leaves the UK vastly weaker in terms of influence and legislative say.

It would be better to remain in and seek reform from within.

To Walk away and trade under WTO is immediately putting us on the back foot with regard to any competitive edge.
Tariffs, certification and compliance are immediate issues that would make UK goods and services less attractive and competitive.

UK manufacturing has already sent the message. Investment is down 60%. Business leaders and institutions have almost unilaterally sounded the bell of discontent.

I fear much damage has already been done.
Who knows what next months will bring bar more political turmoil, uncertainty and general loss.

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by turtle »

waz-24-7 wrote: UK manufacturing has already sent the message. Investment is down 60%. Business leaders and institutions have almost unilaterally sounded the bell of discontent.
You may be right Waz but the British people have sent out a bigger sound of discontent in the last 24 Hrs

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Post by waz-24-7 »

Certainly agree on that turtle.
The economy is one issue that is very important on the basis that employment (of the people), earnings and general prosperity is very closely linked to how the economy performs.

I have little idea how to answer the questions from European customers that want assurance that critical supplies and orders will be delivered to contract.
Very frightening given OEM productionline stop penalties in tier one automotive supply chains run at about £30k per minute.

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by erol »

Is anyone interested in how we get out or might get out of the mess we are in right now ?

Or do we just want to keep having the same arguments over over and over whilst 'Rome burns' or 'risks burning' ?

If it becomes clear that parliament would pass the existing withdrawal bill if the political deceleration was to aim for a customs union (with nothing legally binding saying that is where we HAVE to end up) is that not a viable way forward ?

If TM says it is not a viable way forward because it was not in their manifesto or citizens say it is not a viable way forward because it is not what the people voted for, then is not asking the people that specific question as I put it above not a viable way forward ?

Does anyone actually WANT a way forward ? Or do all we want to do is keep having the same arguments and discussion that we have been having for the last 3 years or 40 years ?

Give me a viable way forward. Anything.

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by kerry 6138 »

erol wrote: balanced against that are all the economic benefits of not needing any customs controls with trade between the UK and the EU AND the 'political' benefit of not putting at risk all that was achieved with the good Friday agreement and the Union. In three years now no one advocating leave and stay out of customs union has been able to come up with a realistic way of dealing with the NI issue. I would prefer some honesty quite frankly. If you think getting out of a customs union is more important that the risk to NI, in terms of peace, in terms of being in the union and other stuff then just say 'I am willing to sacrifice NI and risk a return to politics of violence there ..
https://fullfact.org/europe/leave-witho ... sh-border/

The UK government has set out its plan for how it would manage the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland in the immediate aftermath of a no deal Brexit. It was published following parliament’s rejection of the government’s withdrawal agreement for the second time, in March 2019.
The government’s plan specifically aims to avoid an immediate hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland if the UK leaves without a deal in place

). However the head of Ireland’s Office of the Revenue Commissioners said in January that, in the event of a no deal Brexit, it is “not planning for customs posts” as avoiding a hard border is the Irish government’s “overriding objective”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... t-varadkar

The answer I’ve been giving people all along is the honest truth,” he reiterated. “We’re not making plans for a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Our focus is entirely on getting an agreement that ensures that doesn’t happen.”
The Irish government unveiled contingency plans on Wednesday to cope with a potential no-deal Brexit, identifying affected sectors that would require up to 40-50 pieces of new legislation.
It also revealed plans for border inspections at Dublin airport, Dublin port and Rosslare port.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-and- ... uk-brexit/

But officials indicated that arrangements for the Irish border are still not finalized. This is a fraught issue for the EU because if a hard border can be avoided in a no-deal scenario, it calls into question the need for the controversial Northern Ireland backstop — a key part of the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated with London that many Brexiteers say is preventing them from voting for the deal.

Asked about physical infrastructure on the Irish border, the EU official said extra controls will be needed but that "we are working very closely with the Irish authorities, we try and perform the controls away from the border." They did not offer details about how this would be done.

this is why the DUP ERG believe the backstop is being used has a tool to separate Ulster from the rest of the UK

https://www.france24.com/en/20190120-su ... rn-ireland

the "main line of inquiry" was that the bomb had been planted by a group known as the New IRA, one of a small number of groups opposed to a 1998 peace deal that largely ended three decades of violence in the British-run province. They have carried out sporadic attacks in recent years

lack of border checks didnt prevent these, the watch towers, police vehicle checks that have come to signify a hard border were a response to not a reason for terrorist violence

does the channel tunnel constitute a land border?

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by erol »

So it appears that we do not want to discuss a viable way forward and do just want to keep on having the same arguments and discussions OK so be it.

My views on the NI question and the backstop.

I think the EU has every right to be concerned about protecting the integrity of it's customs union and external EU borders. I think Ireland and by extension the EU has every right to be concerned at the consequences of being put in a position, because of our wanting to leave the EU, of having to 'choose' between maintaining the integrity of its external borders and its customs union and having to create a 'harder border' between NI and Ireland. I think it may well prove possible in the event of no deal exit that 'technical' solutions may be able to provide a way for the EU to be able to protect the integrity of it's customs union without having to increase the 'hardness' of the NI and Ireland border but that it also has the right and indeed would be down right 'stupid' to not ask the question 'what happens if it turns out that these 'technical solutions' do not in fact prove capable of protecting the integrity of the EU customs union ?'

I also think that even if you believe that narrative that the EU are just 'pretending' to have concerns over this NI issue to 'bully' the UK in negotiations on the UK's withdrawal from the EU (something that is to me so blatantly not the case or the simple case), and given that we are here just crying over 'spilt milk', then that is just yet more evidence that tactically the UK , in it's rush to trigger article 50, made the biggest and gravest error and threw away the only real leverage it had to be able and resist and counter such 'pretending' from the EU during negotiations.

But I have to ask once more
Is anyone interested in how we get out or might get out of the mess we are in right now ?
and again plead
Give me a viable way forward. Anything.
(and on the question, if it was a question, "does the channel tunnel constitute a land border?" - of course it does , or of course the ends of it do )

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Post by PoshinDevon »

I have said it before but it has to be the PMs deal.

Yes it’s nowhere near the best. I always accepted there would be compromise and this is a compromise. Not what many including me want but it would move the UK to the next stage. Re the NI backstop, I do admire the line of the DUP as anything that is a threat to the union or NI being treated differently from the rest of the U.K. is unacceptable. It took many years to get the NI problem resolved and that cannot be jeopardised. However, the more I think about it I have to wonder if the PMs deal was accepted whether there would be any real change to the current situation? Certainly the UK doesn’t want anything to change. I just keep trying to think of something that would satisfy the DUP to allay there fears.
Does Ireland want a hard border, I also think not but they have to comply with the EU deal. Who would implement all these checks at a border? Won’t happen but I would like to see this tested.

We have to get out of this mess and move to the next and more important stage when hopefully the many mistakes over the last 3 years will not be repeated. That involves all parties coming together to sort out our long term relationship with the EU and also other nations.

Finally I maintain that to not leave the EU will be a far worse option long term.
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Post by erol »

PoshinDevon wrote:I have said it before but it has to be the PMs deal.
Even though that has been defeated now three times, has pushed us to the first set 'exit day' and beyond and the fact that continuing to pursue this as the only option without any compromise on the 'political deceleration' significantly increases the chances of 'no deal exit by mistake' AND the chances of those who seek to overturn the decision to leave entirely being achievable ?
PoshinDevon wrote:Re the NI backstop, I do admire the line of the DUP as anything that is a threat to the union or NI being treated differently from the rest of the U.K. is unacceptable.


Spot on analysis imo.
PoshinDevon wrote:It took many years to get the NI problem resolved and that cannot be jeopardised. However, the more I think about it I have to wonder if the PMs deal was accepted whether there would be any real change to the current situation? Certainly the UK doesn’t want anything to change. I just keep trying to think of something that would satisfy the DUP to allay there fears. Does Ireland want a hard border, I also think not but they have to comply with the EU deal. Who would implement all these checks at a border? Won’t happen but I would like to see this tested.
I think the DUP will and can only work on the basis of 'what becomes law'. I see no way they could be convinced on the basis of 'likelyhood', or 'promises from the government' or 'statements of intent' from the current government or the conservative party. All that matters is what does or does not get passed in to law. Nor do I think they can be 'criticised' for being unconvincable (not sure that is a word) by anything other than law or having real fears that anything other than 'law' will not lead to them and their electorate being betrayed. You only have to look at Rees Mogg's voting for May's deal in the last vote on it, given what he has said up to that point, to be able to understand and sympathise as to why for the DUP, it is what does or does not get passed in to law and only that, that matters and nothing else.
PoshinDevon wrote:We have to get out of this mess and move to the next and more important stage when hopefully the many mistakes over the last 3 years will not be repeated. That involves all parties coming together to sort out our long term relationship with the EU and also other nations.
I agree absolutely but, with respect, I seriously struggle with how just saying 'it has to be May's deal' is a viable way of achieving that, given everything that has happend to date. ?

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erol
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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by erol »

Just as an aside really

We all agree that we have to 'move forward'. There are those that believe the only way to do this is to get May's deal passed.

I am now seeing 'reports' (which may all be BS) that one option May is now considering is to 'change the parliamentary numbers' via a general election, so that the objective of getting her deal passed could be achieved allowing us to 'move on'.

The problem is that in order to call such a general election that would require not just a majority in house of commons but 2/3rd vote in favour. Of course all opposition parties would vote for such but the chances that there are enough Conservative MP's that would oppose such a vote, despite whipping, such that it would lose it is pretty much guaranteed.

So it is then being suggested (which again may be BS) that TM is considering calling a motion of no confidence in her own government, as this is a way of calling a general election that only requires a simple majority in the house ! So in such a situation TM would be whipping her own MPs to support a vote of no confidence in her own government called by that government ! Even then there would be a possibility that she could call such a motion of no confidence in herself, whip her MP's to support and still lose !

Like I say this may well all be BS but that it is even been 'discussed' by some pretty serious commentators is for me an indication of just how surreal this whole situation has become.

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by turtle »

For me If Mrs May called a GE then the Tory party would be toast...the end of them for the time being.

I also don't think Labour would command a large majority either..The brexit party and UKIP would gain votes which would complicate things even further but if Labour did gain a majority then that would be really interesting as how they keep telling us they would reunite the country but it appears their policy would be The Customs Union which would divide the country even further coupled with the fact that over 60% of Labour voters voted to leave It certainly would be an interesting manifesto.

A general Election for me would be an almighty disaster.

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Re: On this day that should have been Brexit day.

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Post by PoshinDevon »

erol wrote:Just as an aside really

We all agree that we have to 'move forward'. There are those that believe the only way to do this is to get May's deal passed.

I am now seeing 'reports' (which may all be BS) that one option May is now considering is to 'change the parliamentary numbers' via a general election, so that the objective of getting her deal passed could be achieved allowing us to 'move on'.

The problem is that in order to call such a general election that would require not just a majority in house of commons but 2/3rd vote in favour. Of course all opposition parties would vote for such but the chances that there are enough Conservative MP's that would oppose such a vote, despite whipping, such that it would lose it is pretty much guaranteed.

So it is then being suggested (which again may be BS) that TM is considering calling a motion of no confidence in her own government, as this is a way of calling a general election that only requires a simple majority in the house ! So in such a situation TM would be whipping her own MPs to support a vote of no confidence in her own government called by that government ! Even then there would be a possibility that she could call such a motion of no confidence in herself, whip her MP's to support and still lose !

Like I say this may well all be BS but that it is even been 'discussed' by some pretty serious commentators is for me an indication of just how surreal this whole situation has become.

I must admit that it’s the first I have heard about the above BS as you so eloquently have put it. If indeed this is being talked about or even considered It will put all that has happened so far into insignificance. However it has come to the time that little would now surprise me. That would really be the icing on the cake as far as barking mad ideas/decisions made by our elected representatives.
Life is not about waiting for the storm to pass,it's about learning to dance in the rain

Peterborough Utd -The Posh

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