How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

[erol]

I really think this is important which is why I am posting it again in its own thread. In a sea of a millions charts and analysis of data this is the ONE that shows the single most important thing as clearly as it can be shown.

Explained in this video



And the source of the charts in the video here

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

[erol]

What this analysis is 'telling me'

It is not the case that some countries are doing a bit better, like Singapore, and others doing a bit worse, in managing this crisis. It is the case that excluding China, for reasons of the data it gives can not be trusted or for reasons that measures it is taking can not be replicated in proper democracies, or both, there is to date only ONE COUNTRY, a modern democratic high population, high density state, that to date has succeeded in 'getting off the exponential curve' as shown in the chart linked above and that is South Korea. So far that is it. Just one country alone. South Korea.

Taking measures to 'get off the exponential' is the first order priority. Ahead even of things like trying to source and produce more ventilators which can only mitigate the effects of being on the exponential curve not get a country off it.

Emulating South Korea is first order priority. The following links are 'old' by the pace at which this stuff is moving but have important stuff in them none the less

https://www.euractiv.com/section/corona ... 19-spread/
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... ts-success#

So questions I would be asking governments, any goverments be it the UK or here are where are the plans for things like

The national mobile phone alert system warns residents of the respective districts or localities when a fresh case is detected and carries a link to detailed information about the last few places which the patient had passed through. This alerts people who have visited the areas to monitor and report possible symptoms.

and

The government has developed two mobile phone applications to follow potential patients, with one of them being mandatory for people arriving in South Korea from high-risk areas – currently China, Hong Kong, Macao, Iran and the entirety of Europe – who are forced to answer daily questions about their possible symptoms.

The app forwards users to telecalling executives for arranging testing if they report developing symptoms.

The other app warns public officials whenever someone in quarantine leaves the isolation zone, although this depends on personal responsibility as downloading the application is not mandatory.

Where is the talk from our governments or our MSM that show they understand the evidence shown in this chart and the talk of how we can and will learn from South Korea and implement the things they have there that have led them to be the only (China excepted) country to have shown that they are 'beating the virus' to date.

Why are we still looking at, talking about and implementing measures that South Korea did NOT follow ?

How long before we can target test 5k per million and beyond ?

Using the site https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ and looking first just at Singapore and South Korea can tell us important stuff about where Cyprus is it at right now. Go to the site. Deselect all countries. Select just Singapore and South Korea.Play the chart over time. The big drop for Singapore 19th Feb and 10th March shows the effect of swift and relatively successful 'containment' but that containment, even in a city state as atypical as Singapore can never be 100% and that once containment is broken, without other measures, you end up on the 'exponential curve' the same as anywhere else. Now add in Cyprus. It is currently 'under the exponential curve' and that is a result of 'containment' but we know containment can not be total and that it will, in the absence of South Korea like measures, end up on the 'exponential curve' like everywhere else to date baring South Korea (and excluding China).

[erol]

The two most important highest priority order questions any populace and it's media should be asking their governments are

"Why are we not rapidly and aggressively seeking to emulate those strategies and actions that South Korea has and is pursuing ?"

and

"Why are we continuing to pursue strategies and actions that South Korea has not and is not pursuing ?"

[Cally]

Wow, a lot of info to digest but I picked up on a few points.
It appears to me that the citizens of SK abide by what the government tells them...…
SK & Bahrein have access to far more testing kits than I believe we (UK) have had...…
We (UK) are not, up till a few days ago testing in any way inbound passengers no matter where they are from, from what I have read.....
High risk patients are given priority for hospitalisation, unlike UK where we have virtually been written off.....
15,000 tests a day is brilliant.....
How low down the ladder are we for containing this, unbelievable, heads in the sand for too long imo

[erol]

SK & Bahrein have access to far more testing kits than I believe we (UK) have had...…

Comparing SK to Bahrain using what I will now refer to as THE chart is I think instructive. They lead the world in number of test done per million of population and I think Bahrain is ahead of SK. However the degree to which they have each broken from the exponential curve is not the same, with SK showing a much more pronounced drop that Bahrain has. This indicates to me the just number of tests per million of pop alone is not the whole story. A vital component but how well targeted and how that data gained is subsequently shared, disseminated with total honesty immediately to all seems to also be a major factor in why SK is 'ahead' of Bahrain on THE chart to date.

How low down the ladder are we for containing this, unbelievable, heads in the sand for too long imo

I maintain that the two most vital questions that need to be asked by countries or of leaderships of countries by their people and press, all countries, that are not yet showing the gains that SK is in breaking from the exponential on THE chart are as above

"Why are we not rapidly and aggressively seeking to emulate those strategies and actions that South Korea has and is pursuing ?"

and

"Why are we continuing to pursue strategies and actions that South Korea has not and is not pursuing ?"

[EnjoyingTheSun]

We won't know the reality of any of this for a year and even then unless we test every single person in the world our data will be questionable.

There are other factors which may or may not be important. Air quality, average age of the population, population density, general fitness of the population, eg obesity, how good their health service is etc etc etc.
Also how compliant the country's population is and how authoritarian the government is.

Also who is to say that South Korea won't suffer a second spike or even a third spike?

The number I am most interested is the World and UK overall death rates.
For example in the UK from 2000 to 2018 we had a low of 552 thousand deaths in a year and a high of 616 thousand deaths.
The biggest yearly rise in those figures was from 2014 to 2015 when the figures rose from 570 thousand to 602 thousand which corresponded with a particularly bad flu season.

I have my doubts that the UK deaths for 2020 will even hit 650 thousand.

[erol]

ETS really watch the video and play with the site where you can chose countries to compare. What I am calling THE chart does not look at death rates at all. It charts total infections vs increase in infections over a week. Nor does it plot time on an axis. All this is explained in the video clip. Even with the limits in the data, variations in counting and all the rest, it shows like no other chart I have seen to date (and I see vast amounts daily) which countries, according to this limited data that we do have, are breaking from the exponential in terms of infection rates and which are not.

The factors you mention may all be significant which is why looking hard at SK is important. Certainly included propensity of populace to follow guidance and I would say looking at correlation between that propensity and things like 'ultra transparency and dissemination of infections numbers and location' may have a part to play in that along with 'cultural' differences.

SK may yet return back to the exponential line but right now the limited data we do have clearly shows when analysed this way that it is the only country to have significantly managed to achieve breaking from the exponential (china excepted) and that is something that all governments and all of us should be looking at is it not, when deciding today what response to make and not make ?

[EnjoyingTheSun]

As I said time will tell on this.
150,000 die each day throughout the world. To date 32,000 have died from corona virus in what 65 days. On average around 16,000 would have died just in the UK and Italy from flu in 65 days.

[erol]

As I said time will tell on this.
150,000 die each day throughout the world. To date 32,000 have died from corona virus in what 65 days. On average around 16,000 would have died just in the UK and Italy from flu in 65 days.

Yes time will tell on over all mortality but with respect that seems to miss the point I am trying to make here in this thread.

We (the UK and here) ARE taking extraordinary measures , at huge costs not just fiscal, to try and achieve an outcome of breaking from the exponential quicker than just letting the virus run it course. Given that we are doing so and given that the best analysis I have seen to date by far of the limited data we DO have to date in terms of working out if a country is achieving that or not clearly indicates how SK (china expected) is the only country to have made significant progress in that regard, is it not sensible to focus our 'debate' , individual and national, in places like here and in the media and elsewhere, towards looking as SK, what they have done, what they have not done ?

[EnjoyingTheSun]

I see your point but again a second and third spike in the figures will throw figures out of the window.
If there was anything in the herd immunisation theory then and I'm not convinced it was complete rubbish then those who isolated their populations first will enjoy better figures in the short term. When it seems to be over and their country goes back to normal will it spike with avengeance?

Also with self isolation, the longer a country basically stops economically then it would be logical to assume the more of a financial hit it takes. If you add in the theory that austerity etc kills then any more lives saved by speedier or more stringent self isolation might be dwarfed by the lives lost because of the economic hit that will inevitably have to be endured.

[erol]

And I am not really disagreeing with the point you are making or seeking to dismiss them out of hand. They are all valid questions imo.

We are taking drastic action. We should try and get the best possible bang for our buck that action costs. We only have the data we have today. Decisions are being made today.

I think it is within the realms of possibility that should SK current 'breaking from the exponential' prove to continue over time, that this could lead to it also becoming a country less affected by the severe economic costs of actions that are being taken all over.

When you start to look at some of things that SK has and is doing and not doing , like they never locked down even hotspot areas to the degree that places like Italy and Spain have, they did not place blanket travel bans on whole countries like China or the EU like the US did but instead used much finer targeted restrictions, then there is reason to consider, imo, if their approach might not only achieve the over all goal of breaking from the exponential curve but are doing so with less disruption and economic cost that other countries that are not showing signs yet of breaking from the curve.

I think these are all importation and vital discussions we should be having. I am not seeing such discussion , to the degree that I think the data we do have indicates we should have, in general terms. Not here (to date) and not in the MSM or within governments. Hence my attempt to play small part in trying to shift that degree some.

[kibsolar1999]

we have to see that in SK 87% of all infections have been detected in Daegu town/province. within this christian sect and they have less contact with "no members" and contacts within he sect have been relatively good traceable...

an herd immunisation is necessary, also because those can continue to work, eg, in the health sector, even without a mask.
thats another thing which you have to consider for SK, sufficient mask have been available, because SK was one of the first countries.
but a herd immunisaion has to go slowly, otherwise the emergency car is not coming any more and people die at home, and it would be much much worse as during the last flu season in the UK.
the "death rate" will go tremendously up. and not only the above 80 will die.
thats what now nearly all politicians (and we) are massively worried about. the ultimate wave.

the infectologists say that every country. even county, has to find their own strategy.... eg, related to the intensive care beds / breathing masks available per resident.
this must be a ban on assembly for more than 2 people (exept family members), it can be a "under 2 meter contact ban" or a curfew, an app or mandatorily wear a mask/ "spit protection" which can be a scarf or whatever. or all.
the "doubling rate" has to go down. under 10 days. only then we get a stable number of people who are infected at the same time.
at the moment:
UK and US: approx 3.3 days.
Germany: 5 days.
Cyprus (all): 6 days.
world: 7 days , but only because not sufficient test are done to find the "real number", which is for "world" most probably at 1 confirmed to 10 to 20 dark number. so, we talk. as for today. 7 - 14 million infected people. of which, as it stands now, 5-10 % will die, also because of a "non existent" health system,
to my opinion it is cynical to say that austerity might kill more as covid 19 might do. in many many countries you will see that "austerity deaths" will come on top of covid 19.

we need to self isolate as much as we can, wash our hands, wear a spit protection, and a wonder.

[erol]

kibsolar1999 here is 'the' chart for the countries you mention based on latest (John Hopkins) raw data, with South Korea added as well.

you can produce these charts for any combo of countries you like and 'play' them over time at this link https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

[sophie]

K1999, I can't imagine anyone spitting in my face here in TRNC, in UK possibly.

[erol]

More musing from me.

Clearly both the amount of testing per head of population being done and the way that testing is targeted is a major factor in explaining why SK (pretty much alone , china excluded) is showing such encouraging results compared to other countries. It is not imo however the only factor. What you do with the data from this testing is also important I think.

My understanding is that in SK as soon as a new positive test is discovered and confirmed it is entered in to a central database such that near instantly the entire population of 50 million, via an app, can see where that positive test has occurred geographically. As the movements of the new positive test in the previous two weeks are determined this data is also put in to the database and thus others via the app can see near instantly if their 'paths have crossed' with this new positive. Compare that with here where a 'rumour' starts that 'someone in lapta has tested positive' and spreads via social media. The advantages of the 'SK' approach seem obvious both in terms of the information itself but also in terms of enhancing trust for authorities that pays dividends as well.

I pretty much see all countries making efforts to ramp up the level of testing per head of population. This a good thing. I am yet to see other countries seek to emulate what SK has done and is doing in terms of use and quick transparent dissemination of that data that comes from such testing and I am left wondering why ?

[EnjoyingTheSun]

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1244 ... 73122?s=21

Sky News doing their bit by giving us advice from Kate Winslet who appeared in the film Contagion.
Tomorrow Michael J Fox is gong to be giving tips on time travel

[kibsolar1999]

sophie...by just normal speaking everybody "spits". the virus "flies" approx 1,5 meters.
so, 2 meter distance is best and a spit protecion, which is mandatory from today in austria in supermarkets and so on.
actually to protect others, not for getting protected.